“Labeling” Seattle Slew

About three months ago I presented some statistics on sires of the broodmare sire (P3 in the third generation). Today I do the same for sires of sires of broodmare sires (P5 in the fourth generation), basically the same position, only one generation farther back.

I am going to condense today’s results into an abbreviated form. A dozen sires are listed, the most popular ones (ones that showed up most often) first.

Leading Sires at P5 in the Fourth Generation

Sire                                      Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)         Difference

Northern Dancer              5,800                1.07                      1.02                       –0.05

Raise a Native                   5,767                 1.05                      0.87                       –0.18

Mr. Prospector                  4,943                0.97                      1.04                        +0.07

Storm Bird                         2,452                1.07                       0.99                       –0.08

Nearctic                              2,197                 1.04                       1.18                        +0.14

Hail to Reason                  2,026                 1.07                       1.20                       +0.13

Vice Regent                       1,610                  1.04                        1.17                        +0.13

Bold Reasoning                1,596                  1.14                        1.42                       +0.28

Damascus                            825                   0.86                       0.64                      –0.22

Bold Ruler                           785                   0.82                       0.40                      –0.42

In Reality                             779                    0.85                      1.09                       +0.24

Seattle Slew                         715                    1.09                       0.81                      –0.28

The identities of the sires listed are no great surprises. The big three (Northern Dancer, Raise a Native, and Mr. Prospector) lead the way. Then there is a gap back to a group of three (Storm Bird, Nearctic, and Hail to Reason) all in the 2,000’s. They are followed by Vice Regent and Bold Reasoning (1,610 foals and 1,596 foals respectively). The trailing group (Damascus, Bold Ruler, In Reality, and Seattle Slew) range from 825 to 715 foals.

Seven of the first eight sires have prices above the norms, ranging from Bold Reasoning (1.14) to Mr. Prospector (0.97). Three of the last four have prices below the norms, ranging from Seattle Slew (1.09) to Bold Ruler (0.82).

The 12 sires are evenly split in terms of prices versus results. Six had better results than prices (the desired pattern). Six had higher prices than results (the undesired pattern). Bold Reasoning was best at +0.28. Bold Ruler was worst at –0.42.

That positive result for Bold Reasoning is very misleading. He had 1,596 foals at P5 in the fourth generation. Seattle Slew had the same 1,596 foals at P3 in the third generation. I did not find any Bold Reasonings that were not Seattle Slews. Hence Bold Reasoning’s +0.28 at P5 in the fourth generation is all attributable to Seattle Slew at P3 in the third generation.

Some other situations are similar. Storm Bird has 2,452 foals at P5 in the fourth generation; 2,380 of them were Storm Cat at P3 in the third generation; only 72 (and zero stakes winners) were NOT Storm Cat in the third generation.

Vice Regent has 1,610 foals at P5 in the fourth generation; 1,592 of them were Deputy Minister at P3 in the third generation; only 18 (and zero stakes winners) were NOT Deputy Minister in the third generation.

You might think that Northern Dancer and Nearctic would be similar, but they are not. Nearctic has 2,197 foals at P5 in the fourth generation; 1,643 of them are Northern Dancer at P3 in the third generation; 554 are Nearctic NOT though Northern Dancer.

Those 554 foals are pretty good too. They had a price of 0.97, a result of 1.49, and a difference of +0.52. That is much better than Northern Dancer’s numbers at P3 in the third generation (1.07, 1.07, 0).

You might think that Beholder had something to do with these numbers for Nearctic. Beholder is out of a mare by Tricky Creek, by Clever Trick, by Icecapade, by Nearctic. That puts Nearctic in the fifth generation and Icecapde at P5 in the fourth generation. So Beholder did not help this group at all.

The two best stakes winners for Nearctic in this group were Mizdirection (out of a Clever Trick mare, 3,820 Performance Points) and Joyful Victory (out of a Wild Again mare, 2,653).

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the case of Mr. Prospector and Raise a Native. The former has 4,900 foals at P3 in the third generation. The latter has 5,767 foals at P5 in the fourth generation. So only 867 of those 5,767 foals were NOT though Mr. Prospector in the third generation.

And those 867 foals were pretty pathetic, with a price of 0.88 and a result of 0.36, a difference of –0.52. Without Mr. Prospector, Raise a Native was pretty much a complete dud in the broodmare sire line, at least for this particular sample, sales foals of 2008-2111.

One generation can make a big difference. Seattle Slew is a good illustration of this point. He was very good at P3 in the third generation (price of 1.14, result of 1.42, difference of +0.28). He was almost equally bad one generation farther back, at P5 in the fourth generation, with a price of 1.09, a result of 0.81, and a difference of –0.28.

The explanation for this is pretty simple. Seattle Slew at P3 in the third generation includes A.P. Indy as a broodmare sire. Hence the high prices and good results. Seattle Slew at P5 in the fourth generation includes sons of A.P. Indy as broodmare sires. Prices still pretty high, results not nearly as good, at least through sales foals of 2008-2111.

Positions themselves can make a big difference. Seattle Slew is a good illustration. Consider his numbers at P5 and P6 in the fourth generation. I have just recited his numbers for the former (P5, a price of 1.09, a result of 0.81, and a difference of –0.28). At the latter (P6), his numbers are a price of 0.95, a result of 2.07, and a difference of +1.12.

So the market thought that Seattle Slew was a better influence at P5 in the fourth generation (price of 1.09) than at P6 in the fourth generation (price of 0.95). The results were quite the opposite. The two positions are right next to each other in the fourth generation. One (sire of females) had excellent results from below-average prices. The other (sire of males) had poor results from above-average prices.

The main point here is that attempting to define a sire’s “influence” (positive or negative) is a lot trickier than just pinning a convenient label on him. That “influence” can vary sharply from generation to generation and even from position to position within the same generation.

 

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Seattle Slew, Danzig, Blushing Groom

I have been trying to come up with a snappy introduction to today’s topic. Unsuccessfully. So let me just state that I find the broodmare sire of the broodmare sire (P6 in the fourth generation) a fascinating position in pedigrees.

So here are some statistics on the leading sires in that position, starting with prices. Listed below are the 14 sires who showed up most often at this position among sales foals of 2008-2111 (all of them with at least 500 foals). They are listed in descending order by number of foals.

Sire                           Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Secretariat              2,144          $89,120             221.49                   1.44

Buckpasser             2,014            53,117              169.19                    1.10

Mr. Prospector       1,323            51,694             164.94                   1.07

Northern Dancer      723            36,749             140.94                   0.92

Caro                             673            65,773             192.58                    1.25

Blushing Groom       610             56,288            176.32                    1.14

In Reality                   588            32,650             138.68                   0.90

Nijinsky II                 585             38,175              137.71                    0.89

Halo                            575             45,893              156.81                   1.02

Seattle Slew               571             44,147               145.88                  0.95

Hoist the Flag           566            45,295              150.07                   0.97

Herbager                    559            55,755               178.05                   1.16

Danzig                        516            46,022              161.37                    1.05

Alydar                         513            35,199               134.77                   0.88

Totals                      11,960          55,464               171.01                    1.10

The first four names on this list are no surprises. Caro is there mainly because of Unbridled’s Song and Maria’s Mon. Blushing Groom is there mainly because of Carson City and Awesome Again. Herbager is there mainly because of Saint Ballado and Devil’s Bag. Danzig is there mainly because of Arch and Distorted Humor.

The overall average for all 45,562 foals is $46,418. Six are above that figure, led by Secretariat ($89,120) and Caro ($65,773). Eight are below that figure, the lowest being In Reality ($32,650).

In terms of Price Indexes, eight are above 1.00, led by Secretariat (1.44) and Caro (1.25). Six are below 1.00, the lowest being Alydar (0.88).

Listed below are the racetrack results for these same 14 sires. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, the overall average now being 693.

Sire                           Foals          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Secretariat              2,144                     89                     4.15             759                     1.35

Buckpasser             2,014                     73                     3.62            675                     1.05

Mr. Prospector       1,323                    50                     3.78            508                     0.82

Northern Dancer      723                    17                      2.35            569                     0.57

Caro                             673                    34                     5.05            612                     1.32

Blushing Groom       610                    33                      5.41            666                     1.54

In Reality                   588                    10                      1.70            429                     0.31

Nijinsky II                 585                     19                     3.25             802                    1.11

Halo                            575                     20                    3.48             710                    1.06

Seattle Slew               571                     33                    5.78              836                   2.07

Hoist the Flag           566                    21                     3.71               567                   0.90

Herbager                    559                    22                    3.94              582                   0.98

Danzig                        516                     25                    4.84              960                   1.99

Alydar                         513                     16                    3.12               519                    0.69

Totals                     11,960                   462                   3.86              677                    1.12

Since Secretariat had by far the highest prices, he should also have had the best results as well. He did not, however, ranking fourth at 1.35, behind Seattle Slew (2.07), Danzig (1.99), and Blushing Groom (1.54). In Reality was by far the worst at 0.31.

Of course the important point is prices versus results, and the differences are shown in the chart below.

Sire                           Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Secretariat              2,144                 1.44                      1.35                       –0.09

Buckpasser             2,014                 1.10                      1.05                       –0.05

Mr. Prospector       1,323                 1.07                     0.82                      –0.25

Northern Dancer      723                 0.92                    0.57                       –0.35

Caro                             673                 1.25                     1.32                       +0.07

Blushing Groom       610                  1.14                     1.54                       +0.40

In Reality                   588                 0.90                   0.31                        –0.59

Nijinsky II                 585                 0.89                    1.11                         +0.22

Halo                            575                 1.02                    1.06                        +0.04

Seattle Slew               571                 0.95                    2.07                        +1.12

Hoist the Flag           566                0.97                    0.90                       –0.07

Herbager                    559               1.16                     0.98                       –0.18

Danzig                        516                1.05                     1.99                        +0.94

Alydar                         513                0.88                   0.69                        –0.19

Totals                      11,960               1.10                    1.12                         +0.02

The first thing that jumps out at me is that the top four by total number of foals all had negative differences: Secretarist was –0.09, Buckpasser was –0.05, Mr. Prospector was –0.25, and Northern Dancer was –0.35. So the four most popular names were all overvalued. Caro (fifth on the list) was the first sire with a positive difference (+0.07).

Only six of the 14 had positive differences. Eight had negative differences. But overall, the composite for all 14 sires shows a price of 1.10, a result of 1.12, and a difference of +0.02. So taken together, all 14 were very close to fairly valued. The individual sires varied widely, however.

On the negative side, In Reality was by far the worst at –0.59. On the positive side, Seattle Slew was by far the best at +1.12, followed by Danzig at +0.94 and Blushing Groom at +0.40.

Seattle Slew, Danzig, and Blushing Groom all benefited from some very good stakes winners (home runs). Perhaps a little more detail on their best stakes winners would be enlightening.

Listed below are the three best stakes winners by Seattle Slew in this category.

Musical Romance (Concorde’s Tune–Candlelight Dinner, Slew Gin Fizz), 09T22,000, 3,582 Performance Points.

Elusive Kate (Elusive Quality–Gout de Terroir, Lemon Drop Kid), 10Y70,000, 3,284.

Comma to the Top (Bwana Charlie–Maggies Storm, Stormy Atlantic), 08W5,000, 2,949.

The three broodmare sires listed above (Slew Gin Fizz, Lemon Drop Kid, and Stormy Atlantic) are all out of Seattle Slew mares. That Seattle Slew’s three best stakes winners involve three different broodmare sires is impressive in its own right. Not to mention that two of them were by marginal sires (Concorde’s Tune and Bwana Charlie).

Listed below are the three best stakes winners by Danzig in this category.

I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley–Arch’s Gal Edith, Arch), 10Y11,000, 4,194.

Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie–Playa Maya, Arch), 08W160,000, 2,806.

Molly Morgan (Ghostzapper–Capitulation, Distorted Humor), 10Y90,000, 2,082.

Arch and Distorted Humor are both out of Danzig mares. These three stakes winners are less impressive than Seattle Slew’s three stakes winners. Only two broodmare sires are involved. Two of the three were by very good sires (Indian Charlie and Ghostzapper). Distorted Humor is relatively young and was just getting started as a broodmare sire for sales foals of 2008-2111.

Listed below are the two best stakes winners by Blushing Groom in this category.

Havre de Grace (Saint Liam–Easter Bunnette, Carson City), 08Y380,000, 4,586.

Vyjack (Into Mischief–Life Happened, Stravinsky), 11Y45,000, 2,062.

Carson City and Stravinsky are both out of Blushing Groom mares. Stravinsky is more surprising than Carson City, although Stravinsky is also the broodmare sire of turf sensation Tepin (by Freud, not exactly a chief of the breed).

Blushing Groom has a Price Index of 1.14 in the charts above, Danzig 1.05, and Seattle Slew 0.95. So Seattle Slew achieved a very good record as a broodmare sire of broodmare sires among sales foals of 2008-2111 with BELOW-AVERAGE PRICES. Perhaps that is the most impressive point of all.

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A Comment Upon “You Learn Something New Every Day”

I received the following comment on my recent post, “You Learn Something New Every Day.”

———————————————————————————————————

David, as you know as well as anyone, genuinely positive proof of inbreeding success has long proven to be highly elusive and scant at best. Congratulation on coming up with this welcome addition to the latter.

I’ve always maintained that inbreeding should be practiced only through superior performing animals in an effort to filter out negative recessives. That’s why, despite a lack of evidence, I’ve half-heartedly clung to the notion that stakes-winning broodmares bearing the Rasmussen Factor might prove to be somewhat better producers.

Do you have any information on the quality of the inbred components of the 150 mares in your project?

Good work, as usual!
Allison

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Listed below are the dozen stakes winners out of dams who were stakes winners and also inbred 3×3 or closer. Listed for each is its name, pedigree (sire–dam, broodmare sire), the inbreeding of the dam, sales info, and number of Performance Points earned (highest, best stakes winners, listed first).

Stakes Winners out of Dams Who Were Stakes Winners and Inbred 3×3 or Closer

Alpha Bettor (Alphabet Soup–Scatter Buy, Relaunch), 2×3 In Reality, 10T27,000, 1,825.

Al Qasr (Aptitude–Majestic Dy, Dynaformer), 3×3 His Majesty, 09Y8,500, 1,439.

Sweet Lulu (Mr. Greeley–Successful Outlook, Orientate), 3×3 Blushing Groom, 11Y270,000, 1,094.

Bear No Joke (It’s No Joke–Nithi, Wolf Power), 3×3 Round Table, 09Y73,136, 978.

Caminadora (More Than Ready–Stoneway, Storm Boot), 3×3 Mr. Prospector, 08Y150,000, 354.

Madrilena (Stormy Atlantic–Brush Over, Broad Brush), 3×3 Hoist the Flag, 08Y80,000, 321.

Max Me Out (Max’s Pal–Tambien Me Voy, Orono), 3×3 Arts and Letters, 08Y5,000, 266.

Hidinginplainsight (Elusive Quality–Hot Storm, Stormy Atlantic), 3×3 Seattle Slew, 11T80,000, 253.

Xaverian (Sky Mesa–Majestic Dy, Dynaformer), 3×3 His Majesty, 11W280,000, 242.

Lemon Splendor (Lemon Drop Kid–Karakorum Splendor, A. P Jet), 3×3 Mr. Prospector, 10Y100,000, 234.

Hunt Crossing (Corinthian–Silver Lace, Silver Deputy), 3x3x3 Mr. Prospector, 09W260,000, 210.

Elusive Noise (Elusive Quality–Noisette, Broad Brush), 3×3 Hoist the Flag, 09Y110,000, 170.

The first thing you might notice is that I have listed a dozen stakes winners but reported only 11 in my previous post. That is because I noticed a new one this morning, Xaverian, winner of the Raymond Earl Stakes yesterday at Gulfstream Park. So the results for the 150 foals are even slightly better than I previously reported.

You inquired as to the quality of the inbred components. That is why I listed the details of the inbreeding of the dam.

Three of the 12 stakes winners were out of dams inbred to Mr. Prospector. That is not exactly surprising. Nor is it out of proportion to the overall population. If all 12 dams were inbred to Mr. Prospector, then you might conclude that it was inbreeding to Mr. Prospector that did the trick, not the inbreeding in general. But that is not the case here.

Actually only 11 dams account for these 12 stakes winners. Majestic Dy shows up twice, as the dam of Al Qasr and of the aforementioned Xaverian. Majestic Dy was inbred 3×3 to His Majesty.

Only one other sire showed up twice. Both Brush Over (dam of Madrilena) and Noisette (dam of Elusive Noise) were inbred 3×3 to Hoist the Flag. Both were by Broad Brush, coincidentally or not.

The remaining five stakes winners were out of dams inbred to five different sires: In Reality, Blushing Groom, Round Table, Arts and Letters, and Seattle Slew. Of those five, Arts and Letters and Round Table are the hardest to find in the overall population. Mares inbred to Seattle Slew, Blushing Groom, and In Reality are not that hard to find.

So I hope that gives you a fair idea of the quality of the inbreeding components involved. Judging by the stakes winners, it is a representative sample, not dominated by one particular name. It is not surprising that Mr. Prospector shows up most often. It is a tad surprising that Northern Dancer did not show up at all.

You mentioned “the notion that stakes-winning broodmares bearing the Rasmussen Factor might prove to be somewhat better producers.” Not one of the 11 mares listed above was inbred 3×3 or closer to a female ancestor. I do remember seeing some of that description among the 150 foals, but I really can not say how many.

Nevertheless, I think that might be a really good project for future research. Do RF mares (especially stakes winners) make better producers? I think you would have to examine their degree of inbreeding as well (3×3 or closer, 4×4 or closer, the rest).

So anyway, Allison, I hope this post helps to answer your questions. And thank you for the idea for future research.

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You Learn Something New Every Day

I received the following comment on my post about racing class of dams from a little over a year ago.

“I’m quite convinced on your general refutation (or perhaps debunking) of close inbreeding generally. I do wonder if there is a case in which it might matter. Suppose you compare to individuals to have similarly elite racing class, one is an outcross and one is close inbreed. Do they differ in ability to produce foals of high class? This normalizes racing class and focuses on homogeneity. My hypothesis would be that the inbreeds outproduce but have no idea if that would be born out by the statistics.”

The above is a fair question, and I decided to explore it a bit. Of the 45,562 sales foal of 2008-2111, 6,659 were out of stakes winners. Of those 6,659 foals, only 150 (about 2.25%) were out of mares inbred 3×3 or closer. (The reader specified “close” inbreeding.)

The remaining 6,509 foals were out of mares not inbred 3×3 or closer. Call the former group DI (for dam inbred) and the latter group DNI (for dam not inbred). Below are the prices for the two groups.

Group          Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

DI                   150            $68,051            208.15                    1.35

DNI             6,509          $85,442            222.99                    1.45

Totals          6,659          $85,050           222.66                     1.45

As you can see, there is quite a bit of difference between the two groups in terms of prices. The DNI group was more expensive than the DI group ($85,442 to $68,051 by average, 222.99 to 208.15 by maverage, and 1.45 to 1.35 by Price Index).

Below are the racetrack results for the two groups. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, with the benchmark now being 693.

Group          Foals          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

DI                   150                      11                       7.33            649                    2.04

DNI              6,509                  306                     4.70            849                     1.71

Totals           6,659                  317                      4.76            841                      1.71

The DI group was much better than the DNI group by percentage of stakes winners from foals (7.33% to 4.70%). But the DNI group was better than the DI group by APPPSW (849 to 649). Taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, the DI group was decisively better than the NDI group (2.04 to 1.71) despite its lower prices.

So the DI group sold for prices about 35% above average and produced results about 104% above average (an improvement of 0.69). The NDI group sold for prices about 45% above average and produced results about 71% above average (an improvement of 0.26).

So, yes, the DI group was definitely better than the NDI group, lending credence to the theory that inbred (3×3 or closer) dams make better producers than dams not inbred that closely.

At least among dams who were stakes winners. Just for grins I also tracked foals out of mares inbred 3×3 or closer who were NOT stakes winners. There were 1,282 such foals, and their prices are summarized below.

Dams Inbred 3×3 or Closer

Category          Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Not SWs          1,282          $43,608             145.71                    0.95

SWs                    150           $68,051             208.15                    1.35

Totals               1,432          $46,168             152.25                    0.99

The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418, and the overall maverage was 154.0. The 1,432 foals out of mares inbred 3×3 or closer were just below those benchmarks by both average ($46,168) and maverage (152.25, which corresponds to a Price Index of 0.99). The prices for the 150 foals out of mares who were stakes winners and also inbred 3×3 or closer were significantly higher, of course.

Below are the results for the three groups.

Category          Foals          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Not SWs          1,282                    34                      2.65%        719                      0.82

SWs                     150                     11                       7.33%        649                     2.04

Totals               1,432                    45                       3.14%        702                     0.94

The 1,432 foals (both stakes winners and not) sold for a price of 0.99 (about 1% below average) and achieved a result of 0.94 (about 6% below average). They were slight underachievers.

The 150 foals out of stakes winners sold for a price of 1.35 (about 35% above average) and achieved a result of 2.04 (about 104% above average). They were definite overachievers.

The 1,282 foals out of mares who were not stakes winners sold for a price of 0.95 (about 5% below average) and achieved a result of 0.82 (about 18% below average). They were more definite underachievers.

The point is that just because mares who were stakes winners and inbred 3×3 or closer achieved much better results than their prices warranted, be wary of theorizing too broadly from that. What works for stakes winners may not necessarily work for mares who were not stakes winners. In this case it did NOT work for mares who were NOT stakes winners. Even with the fantastic results from those 150 foals, the overall results for all 1,432 foals were still slightly negative.

The more important point could be that close inbreeding might indeed intensify the characteristics (both good and bad) of the mare in question. Inbreeding works both ways, in other words, intensifying both the good and the bad.

But it does appear that foals out of stakes winners who are inbred 3×3 or closer do outperform their prices rather significantly. I would not have believed it if I had not done all the research and number crunching myself. You learn something new every day.

Posted in La Troienne | Tagged | 11 Comments

Sires of Second Dams (Seeking the Gold)

As promised. here are some statistics on sires of second dams among sales foals of 2008-2111, starting with prices. The ten sires listed are the most popular ones (the ones who showed up most often).

Sire                               Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Mr. Prospector             614           $92,899            233.24                    1.51

Deputy Minister          464           $64,156             178.12                     1.16

Secretariat                    403           $61,279             175.32                     1.14

Seattle Slew                  396           $74,404            211.02                     1.37

Storm Cat                      395           $73,460            210.38                    1.37

Danzig                            395           $72,443            202.53                    1.32

Nijinsky II                     375           $73,198             203.18                    1.32

Alydar                             354          $88,792             224.93                   1.46

Dixieland Band             314           $64,754            190.33                    1.24

Vice Regent                   308           $55,656            180.70                    1.17

Totals                            4,018          $73,461            202.69                    1.32

The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418. All ten sires posted averages well above that, ranging from $92,899 for Mr. Prospector to $55,656 for Vice Regent. The maverages and Price Indexes followed suit, the latter ranging from 1.51 for Mr. Prospector to 1.14 for Secretariat.

Listed below are the racetrack results for these same ten sires. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, the overall average now being 691.

Sire                                Foals          Stakes Winners         %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Mr. Prospector             614                     30                      4.89            799                    1.68

Deputy Minister          464                     19                       4.09          1,015                   1.79

Secretariat                    403                       7                        1.74             757                   0.56

Seattle Slew                  396                     19                        4.80            514                   1.06

Storm Cat                      395                     21                        5.32            909                  2.08

Danzig                            395                     18                        4.56            739                   1.45

Nijinsky II                     375                       8                         2.13          1,094                 1.00

Alydar                            354                      14                        3.95             756                  1.29

Dixieland Band            314                      17                         5.41             949                  2.21

Vice Regent                   308                     16                        5.19              678                  1.51

Totals                            4,018                   169                      4.21              811                   1.46

Since all ten sires posted prices well above average, their results should have been above average as well. Eight of the ten were above average. Nijinsky II was right at 1.00. Secretariat was way below at 0.56. The two best were Dixieland Band (2.21) and Storm Cat (2.08).

The most important consideration is results versus prices, which are summarized below.

Sire                                 Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Mr. Prospector               614                   1.51                      1.68                        +0.17

Deputy Minister            464                   1.16                      1.79                        +0.63

Secretariat                      403                   1.14                      0.56                       –0.58

Seattle Slew                    396                   1.37                      1.06                       –0.31

Storm Cat                        395                   1.37                      2.08                       +0.71

Danzig                              395                   1.32                      1.45                       +0.13

Nijinsky II                       375                   1.32                       1.00                      –0.32

Alydar                               354                  1.46                       1.29                       –0.17

Dixieland Band               314                  1.24                       2.21                        +0.97

Vice Regent                      308                 1.17                        1.51                        +0.34

Totals                               4,018                1.32                       1.46                       +0.14

Six of the ten had positive differences, with Dixieland Band (+0.97) and Storm Cat (+0.71) leading the way. Four of the ten had negative differences, with Secretariat being by far the worst at –0.58.

The table above also shows the totals for these ten sires. They accounted for 4,018 of the 45,562 total foals (a little under 9%). The composite results for all ten sires were pretty good, with a price of 1.32 and a result of 1.46. These 4,018 foals sold for prices about 32% above average and achieved results about 46% above average (a positive difference of 0.14). They exceeded expectations, in other words.

A couple posts ago I showed statistics on the eight most popular sires of the broodmare sire (P3 in the third generation). Those eight sires accounted for a little over 12,000 foals, with a composite price of 1.07 and a composite result of 1.08. Overall, they were just slightly better than expectations.

These 4,018 foals by the top ten sires of second dams (P4) in the third generation were even more positive (price of 1.32, result of 1.46). The market had the top eight sires at P3 pretty well pegged. The top ten sires at P4 were collectively undervalued, a result I have seen over and over again.

Five of the top ten sires at P4 also appeared among the top eight at P3 (Mr. Prospector, Deputy Minister, Seattle Slew, Storm Cat, and Danzig). The other five (Secretariat, Nijinsky II, Alydar, Dixieland Band, and Vice Regent) did not. Call the former five generalists (prominent at any position in pedigrees) and the latter five specialists (prominent only at specific positions in pedigrees, usually as the sire of females, in this case as sires of second dams).

The five generalists fared much better than the five specialists, as summarized in the chart below.

Sires                              Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Generalists                  2,264                 1.36                       1.62                       +0.26

Specialists                    1,754                  1.27                      1.26                       –0.01

Totals                            4,018                 1.32                      1.46                       +0.14

The five specialists posted a price of 1.27 and a result of 1.26 for a negative difference of 0.01. The just barely failed to live up to expectations. The five generalists posted a price of 1.36 and a result of 1.62 for a positive difference of 0.26. They exceeded expectations quite comfortably and are the main reason all ten sires at P4 were collectively undervalued.

I previewed this post by referring to Seeking the Gold, sire of the second dam of undefeated Nyquist. I did track Seeking the Gold as a sire of second dams among sales foals of 2008-2111, but he was nowhere near popular enough to be among the top ten. He was too young (a foal of 1985).

I am pretty sure that if and when I ever get around to examining sales foals of 2012-2015, for example, Seeking the Gold will figure prominently among sires of second dams. And with Nyquist to his credit in that category, his results will be spectacular. Even without Nyquist, I am pretty sure that Seeking the Gold already is and will continue to be an excellent sire of second dams.

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No Magical Results

Listed below are the prices of sales foals of 2008-2111 by the sires of their broodmare sires (P3 in the third generation).

Sire of BM Sire                    Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Mr. Prospector                     4,900        $51,617             165.64                     1.08

Storm Cat                              2,380         $51,867            166.71                     1.08

Danzig                                     1,691         $45,099            151.71                     0.99

Northern Dancer                  1,643         $52,142            164.69                     1.07

Seattle Slew                            1,596         $60,104           176.22                     1.14

Deputy Minister                    1,592          $48,281           161.06                     1.05

Fappiano                                 1,158           $61,197           175.59                      1.14

Gone West                               1,015          $47,859          159.45                      1.04

Totals                                      12,159          $51,437          164.70                      1.07

Eight sires qualified with 1,000 or more foals. The next three were Forty Niner (994), Roberto (932), and Halo (867). The top eight are the usual suspects (no great surprises). They are arranged by their number of foals, and Mr. Prospector (4,900) has a commanding lead over Storm Cat (2,380). For more current pedigrees those roles could very well be reversed.

The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418. All eight were above that figure except for Danzig ($45,099). Only Deputy Minister ($48,281) and Gone West ($47,859) were below $50,000. Only Fappiano ($61,197) and Seattle Slew ($60,104) were above $60,000. The other three were all clustered just above $50,000: Northern Dancer ($52,142), Storm Cat ($51,867), and Mr. Prospector ($51,617).

These eight sires accounted for almost 27% of all foals (12,159 of 45,562). The overall average for all 12,159 foals was $51,437, not quite 11% above the overall average for all 45,562 foals of $46,418.

The maverages and Price Indexes followed the same pattern. In terms of the latter, only Danzig (0.99) was below the benchmark of 1.00. The other seven ranged from 1.04 to 1.14, with the Price Index for all 12,159 foals being 1.07.

Basically these 12,159 foals sold for prices only slightly above average and should have achieved results slightly above average as well. The chart below shows the actual results. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners, involved, the overall average now being 691.

Sire of BM Sire                     Foals          SWs          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Mr. Prospector                      4,900         166         3.39              664                    0.97

Storm Cat                                2,380           82        3.45              689                    1.02

Danzig                                      1,691             64        3.78             665                     1.08

Northern Dancer                    1,643            56         3.41             730                     1.07

Seattle Slew                              1,596            72         4.51             727                      1.41

Deputy Minister                      1,592             65        4.08             662                     1.16

Fappiano                                   1,158              41         3.54             688                    1.05

Gone West                                 1,015              28        2.76             693                    0.82

Totals                                         12,159            449       3.69            678                     1.08

Without going into too much detail, the results are not very different from the prices. The chart below compares prices and results.

Sire of BM Sire                         Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Mr. Prospector                          4,900                1.08                     0.97                        –0.11

Storm Cat                                    2,380                1.08                     1.02                       –0.06

Danzig                                          1,691                  0.99                    1.08                        +0.09

Northern Dancer                        1,643                 1.07                     1.07                              0

Seattle Slew                                  1,596                 1.14                      1.41                         +0.27

Deputy Minister                           1,592                 1.05                     1.16                          +0.11

Fappiano                                        1,158                  1.14                     1.05                         –0.09

Gone West                                     1,015                  1.04                     0.82                        –0.22

Totals                                            12,159                  1.07                     1.08                         +0.01

As you can see in the chart above, these eight sires posted four negative differences (prices higher than results), three positive differences (prices lower than results), and Northern Dancer was right on the money (both price and results being 1.07).

The four worst sires in this position were Gone West (–0.22), Mr. Prospector (–0.11), Fappiano (–0.09), and Storm Cat (–0.06). The three best sires in this position were Seattle Slew (+0.27), Deputy Minister (+0.11), and Danzig (+0.09).

Danzig was the only one on these eight sires with a price below 1.00 (0.99), but his results were actually positive at 1.08. Lookin At Lucky (6,207 Performance Points) was largely responsible for this positive difference. Without Lookin At Lucky Danzig’s PPI drops to 0.92, more in line with his price of 0.99.

The biggest winner in the chart above was Seattle Slew (price of 1.14, result of 1.41, difference of +0.27). My first thought was that A.P. Indy as a broodmare sire was largely responsible for this. Of Seattle Slew’s 1,596 foals, 385 were out of mares by A.P. Indy.

Those 385 foals had a price of 1.73 and a result of 2.18. The remaining 1,211 foals had a price of 0.96 and a result 1.17, still a difference of +0.21. So Seattle Slew did pretty well at P3 in the third generation even without A.P. Indy (thanks mainly to Doneraile Court).

Seven of the eight sires listed were from either the Northern Dancer male line (Northern Dancer himself, Storm Cat, Danzig, and Deputy Minister) or the Mr. Prospector male line (Mr. Prospector himself, Fappiano, and Gone West). Seattle Slew was the only outlier in this respect, and perhaps it is not coincidental that he had the best results.

Storm Cat was the original focus of this study (appearing at the same position, P3 in the third generation, in the pedigrees of both American Pharoah and Nyquist). With a price of 1.08, a result of 1.02, and a difference of –0.06, obviously there is nothing “magical” about Storm Cat in this position. He does appear in the pedigrees of lots of good horses in this position. That is because he appears in the pedigrees of lots of horses (good, bad, and indifferent) in this position period.

The same could be said for Mr. Prospector (price of 1.08, result of 0.97, difference of –0.11). He does appear in the pedigrees of lots of good horses in this and all other positions. That is because he appears in the pedigrees of lots of horses (good, bad, and indifferent) in this and all other positions period. Do not confuse quantity with quality.

All 12,159 foals representing these eight sires posted a collective price of 1.07 and a collective result of 1.08. They sold for prices about 7% above average and achieved results about 8% above average. That about sums it up. You pretty much got the value for which you paid.

The larger the quantity of foals, the more likely it is that the results will be close to the norms. Take Mr. Prospector, for example. Sure, he has a number of sons who are pretty good broodmare sires. He also has a larger number of sons who are not very good as broodmare sires. Take them all together, and you get a difference of –0.11.

That is simply the way the Thoroughbred population works. It is also the reason that “names in pedigrees” produce no magical results.

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