Hail to Reason, Fourth Generation

Last week Hail to Reason the racehorse was discussed. This week we will examine Hail to Reason as a name in more current pedigrees, specifically in the fourth generation of all weanlings, yearlings, or two-year-olds sold at public auction in North America in 1999-2002.

Hail to Reason (to be abbreviated henceforth as HTR) showed up 8,071 times in the fourth generation of these 54,000+ foals. That ranks him seventh among these top 20 sires.

At P1 in the fourth generation (the male line), HTR had a Price Index of 0.76 (12th among these top 20 sires) and a PPI (result) of 0.77  (13th), not particularly good but right on the money. He had 2,066 foals at P1, including 63 stakes winners (3.05%), including Roses in May (6,790 Performance Points). Roses in May was by Devil His Due, by Devil’s Bag, by Halo, by HTR.

At P2 in the fourth generation HTR had a Price Index of 2.20 (first) and a PPI (result) of 1.32 (fifth), a good result in absolute terms but not in relative terms. He had 172 foals at P2, including eight stakes winners (4.65%), but no stakes winners with 2,000+ Performance Points. Seattle Slew still had his last few crops selling in 1999-2002 and accounted for most of these results for HTR at P2.

At P3 in the fourth generation HTR had a Price Index of 0.93 (eighth) and a PPI (result) of 0.40 (19th), a rather dismal result. He had 1,072 foals at P3, including 29 stakes winners (2.71%), including Harlan’s Holiday (5,533). Harlan’s Holiday was by Harlan (by Storm Cat out of Country Romance, by Halo).

At P4 in the fourth generation HTR had a Price Index of 1.11 (fifth) and a PPI (result) of 1.11 (seventh), a good result and right on the money. He had 906 foals at P4, including 37 stakes winners (4.08%), including Strut the Stage (by Theatrical, 3,369), Lost in the Fog (by Lost Soldier, 3,078), and Ocean Drive (by Belong to Me, 2,004). The three sires in question all have second dams by HTR.

At P5 in the fourth generation HTR had a Price Index of 0.95 (ninth) and a PPI (result) of 0.96 (12th), right on the money in absolute terms. He had 1,958 foals at P5, including 68 stakes winners (3.47%), including Strut the Stage (3,369), Hollywood Story (2,471), Western Pride (2,390), Cajun Beat (2,259), and Badge of Silver (2,048).

Strut the Stage (out of a Red Ransom mare), Hollywood Story (out of a Dynaformer mare), and Badge of Silver (out of a Silver Hawk mare) were all out of mares by sons of Roberto. Western Pride was out of a mare by Proud Birdie, by Proud Clarion, by HTR. Cajun Beat was out of a mare by Cure the Blues, by Stop the Music, by HTR.

At P6 in the fourth generation HTR had a Price Index of 0.69 (20th) and a PPI (result) of 0.84 (14th), a good result in relative terms but not in absolute terms. He had 236 foals at P6, including nine stakes winners (3.81%), but no stakes winners with 2,000+ Performance Points.

At P7 in the fourth generation HTR had a Price Index of 1.00 (14th) and a PPI (result) of 1.26 (fourth), a good result in both absolute and relative terms. He had 1,273 foals at P7, including 58 stakes winners (4.56%), including Left Bank (3,303), Essence of Dubai (3,101), and Monarchos (2,521). Left Bank’s second dam is by Good Counsel, by HTR. Essence of Dubai’s second dam is by Mr. Leader, by HTR. Monarchos’s second dam is by Roberto, by HTR.

At P8 in the fourth generation HTR had a Price Index of 1.31 (second) and a PPI (result) of 1.01 (12th), a disappointing result. He had 388 foals at P8, including 19 stakes winners (4.90%), including Freefourinternet (2,006). The third dam of Freefourinternet is Belle O’ Reason, by HTR.

Overall, counting all eight positions in the fourth generation, HTR had a Price Index of 0.96 (15th) and a PPI (result) of 0.91 (18th), a disappointing result. He had 8,071 foals overall, including 291 stakes winners (3.61%).

Almost 79% (6,369) of those 8,071 foals involved sons of HTR in the third generation. Those 6,369 foals had a Price Index of 0.90 and a PPI (result) of 0.86. The remaining 1,702 foals involved daughters of HTR in the third generation. Those 1,702 foals had a Price Index of 1.21 and a PPI (result) of 1.07. So the latter were better than the former in absolute terms but still disappointing relative to their prices.

More than half (4,396) of those 8,071 foals involved either Halo or Roberto in the third generation. Those 4,396 foals had a Price Index of 0.94 and a PPI (result) of 0.84. The remaining 3,675 foals (not involving either Halo or Roberto) had a Price Index of 0.99 and a PPI (result) of 0.99, right on the money.

To recapitulate, foals involving daughters of HTR in the third generation were more expensive and better than foals involving sons, but neither group justified their prices. Halo and Roberto were actually a drag on HTR’s overall results (price of 0.94 and result of 0.84). Foals not involving either Halo or Roberto were right on the money (price of 0.99 and result of 0.99).

The reason for this is pretty simple. Halo was not any good in the third generation (overall result of 0.66). Roberto was barely above average (overall result of 1.03). The pair account for more than half of HTR in the fourth generation. That half was below expectations. The other half was right on the money.

The moral of this story is that even after only three generations, renowned sires such as Halo and Roberto are not necessarily any good anymore. And that in turn affects the results of renowned sires such as HTR in the fourth generation.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s