Rasmussen Factor, Almahmoud

Almahmoud may not be as sexy a name as La Troienne or Somethingroyal, but as the second dam of both Northern Dancer and Halo, she appears quite often and is duplicated quite often. In fact, she was the most popular female name duplicated among sales foals of 1999-2002. Among sales foals of 2003-2007, she was the second-most-popular female name duplicated, behind Somethingroyal.

The chart below shows stakes winners inbred to Almahmoud among these sales foals of 2003-2007. I trust that you are familiar with the format by now. Discussion begins at the end of the chart.

Stakes Winners Among Sales Foals of 2003-2007 Inbred to Almahmoud

Name                               Price                       PPI       Inbreeding

French Village              03T100,000           382          5×5

Jules–She’s French, Jolie’s Halo

Golden Stravinsky      03Y15,000              370          5×5

Stravinsky–Shagadellic, Devil’s Bag

Hyperbaric                   03W10,000            1,519        5×5

Sky Classic–Teasing Charm. Skywalker

My Guy                        03W2,200                290          5×5

Private Interview–My Margaret, Parfaitement

Perfectperformance   03Y1,100,000         599           5×5

Rahy–Balistroika, Nijinsky II

Sir Jackie                     03Y5,000                 446           5×5

Sweetsouthernsaint–Reen’s Racer, Compliance

Time to Divorce          03Y13,500               198            4×5

Halo’s Image–Stormy Divorce, Storm Bird

Amandatude                04Y58,000              509           5×5

Aptitude–Heavenliness, Lord Avie

Smart and Fancy         04Y47,000             1,826         5×5

Not For Love–Substitute Teacher, Shelter Half

Unification                    04Y125,000             389          5×5

Dixie Union–Devil’s Orchid, Devil’s Bag

Apple Special               05W10,000               328         5×5

Outflanker–Apple Juice, Pleasant Tap

Barkley Sound             05Y170,000              180         4×5

Dixieland Band–Class On Class, Jolie’s Halo

Amie’s Legend             06Y180,000              204         5×5

Not For Love–Lunar’s Legend, Polish Numbers

Sly Storm                     06Y500,000              436         5×5

Storm Cat–Brushed Halory, Broad Brush

Wink At the Girls         06Y3,000                   617        4×5

Halo’s Image–Coloring Book, Mari’s Book

Big Truck                      07T90,000                 670        5×5

Hook and Ladder–Just a Ginny, Go for Gin

Lucky Halo                     07Y4,700                   122        5×5

Brahms–Santo Mio, Southern Halo

Megan’s Tough Love   07Y50,000                  167        5×5

Rahy–Silent Partner, Capote

Note that the most expensive of these stakes winners was Perfectperformance, sold for $1,100,000 as a yearling in 2003. Three other foals inbred to Almahmoud also sold for $1,000,000 or more, and all three were by Storm Cat: Positive Force (out of Brushed Halory, by Broad Brush, $2,200,000 as a two-year-old in 2006, a winner, 5×5), Emerald Cat (out of Heeremandi, by Royal Academy, $1,500,000 as a yearling in 2003, graded stakes placed, 5×4), and Full Moon Tonight (out of Successfully, by Affirmed, $1,000,000 as a yearling in 2003, a winner, 5×5).

Emerald Cat was also inbred to Crimson Saint (3×3). So was Joe Hirsch (Giant’s Causeway–Statuette, by Pancho Villa, $1,150,000 as a yearling in 2004, unraced, 4×3 Crimson Saint). I mention these expensive foals in order to point out that some pretty good pedigrees were involved, both with respect to Almahmoud particularly and with RF in general.

Somethingroyal was tops with 643 foals. Almahmoud was next with 541 foals (about 10.6% of all 5,110 RF foals). Those 541 foals sold for a gross of $34,961,269, an average of $64,623, and a maverage of 178.42. The latter two figures were well above the overall average of $54,140 and the overall maverage of 163.11.

So inbreeding to Almahmoud should have had above-average results as well, but of course they did NOT. Included among those 541 foals were 18 stakes winners (3.33%, just below the overall figure of 3.36%).

Those 18 stakes winners were not a particularly good group either. All 2,373 stakes winners averaged 603 Performance Points apiece. These 18 stakes winners averaged 514 Performance Points apiece. Smart and Fancy (1,826), Hyperbaric (1,519), Big Truck (670), and Wink At the Girls (617) were all above 603 Performance Points. The other 14 stakes winners were all below 603.

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 541 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.845, well below their corresponding Price Index of 1.094. So their prices were about 9.4% ABOVE average. Their results were about 15.5% BELOW average.

I also took a look at the difference between Halo on top (sire’s side) of Northern Dancer (dam’s side) and vice versa. Halo on top of Northern Dancer was not any good at all. I found 221 such foals which sold for a gross of $14,559,026, an average of $65,878, and a maverage of 189.00.

Included among these 221 foals were five stakes winners: Wink At the Girls (617 Performance Points), Perfectperformance (599), Sir Jackie (446), Time to Divorce (198), and Megan’s Tough Love (167).

Five stakes winners out of 221 foals is not very good. In fact is is 2.26%, well below the overall figure of 3.36%. And the five stakes winners listed above were not very good either. They averaged 405 Performance Points apiece, compared to the overall average of 603.

So taking all these factors into account, these 221 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.45, well below their corresponding Price Index of 1.16. So their prices were about 16% ABOVE average, but their results were about 55% BELOW average.

The remaining 320 foals and 13 stakes winners were either Northern Dancer on top of Halo or miscellaneous (Almahmoud duplicated more than twice or more than one female name duplicated, such as Emerald Cat, mentioned above).

These 320 foals actually had pretty good results. They sold for a gross of $20,402,243, an average of $63,757, and a maverage of 171.12. Thirteen stakes winners from 320 foals is 4.06%, pretty good. Those 13 stakes winner averaged only 556 Performance Points apiece though, below the overall average of 603.

So taking all these factors into account, these 320 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.12, just above their corresponding Price Index of 1.05. So they sold for prices about 5% above average, and their results were about 12% above average. Not bad.

Taking ALL the Almahmoud into account though, the results were NOT good. One of the reasons for this might be that Almahmoud was not a very positive “influence” in the first place.

I just happen to have some figures on Almahmoud in direct tail female (from fourth dam to eighth dam, regardless of whether or not the name was duplicated) among these sales foals of 2003-2007. Usually that is where a mare achieves her best results, straight down the dam line.

I found 308 such foals with Almahmoud as their fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, or eighth dams (no third or ninth dams, etc.). These 308 foals were even more expensive than the 541 foals with duplications of Almahmoud. These 308 foals sold for a gross of $30,686,276, an average of $99,631, and a maverage of 207.74. Those latter two figures were much higher than for the 541 foals inbred to Almahmoud ($64,623 and 178.42), which in turn were higher than the overall figures ($54,140 and 163.11). These 308 foals included individual prices of $2,600,000, $2,400,000, $1,600,000, $1,500,000, and $1,000,000.

Included among these 308 foals were five stakes winners: Alpine Garden (746 Performance Points, sold for $10,500 as a yearling in 2005), Eishin Lombard (455, sold for $125,000 as a yearling in 2003), Moonee Ponds (235, sold for $45,000 as a yearling in 2005), Winamac Jack (187, sold for $19,000 as a yearling in 2005), and Indigo Cat (165, sold for $2,600,000 as a yearling 2003).

Five stakes winners from 308 foals is obviously not very good. In fact it is 1.62%, less than half the overall figure of 3.36%. And the five stakes winners just listed were obviously not very good either. They averaged 358 Performance Points, compared to the overall average of 603. Taking all these factors into account, these 308 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.29, way below their corresponding Price Index of 1.27. So their prices were about 29% ABOVE average, but their results were about 71% BELOW average.

This is obviously a shockingly poor result. Let us try to put it into some perspective.

Juliets Nurse was Broodmare of the Year in 1966 (the year Busanda should have won it). Juliets Nurse was a multiple stakes producer and developed a family of some commercial viability. She never achieved the heights of La Troienne, Somethingroyal, or Almahmoud though in terms of a lasting legacy.

I found 92 foals among these sales foals of 2003-2007 with Juliets Nurse in the direct female line (all as the fourth, fifth, or sixth dam). These 92 foals were positively (not just relatively) cheap. They sold for a gross of $2,735,988, an average of $29,739, and a maverage of 122.21.

Included among these 92 foals were five stakes winners: Hailie’s Girl (583 Performance Points), Cintarosa (278), Fight Girl (212), Kadence (194), and Precisepursuuit (154).

Five stakes winners from 92 foals is obviously pretty good. In fact it is 5.43%, well above the overall figure of 3.36%. But the five stakes winners listed above were obviously NOT very good, averaging only 284 Performance Points apiece (compared to the norm of 603).

So taking all these factors into account, these 92 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.76, just a hair above their corresponding Price Index of 0.75. This is a result only a statistician could love. When prices and results are very close to each other, it means that the market is working efficiently. In this case it means that the market recognized that even though Juliets Nurse was Broodmare of the Year back in 1966, that does NOT mean there is anything special about her direct female-line descendants.

Almahmoud was the opposite case. In her case prices and results were way out of whack. The market was working very inefficiently in her case, severely overvaluing her name in pedigrees. You might say that the market FAILED to recognize that just because Almahmoud is the second dam of both Northern Dancer and Almahmoud, that does NOT make her female-line descendants anything particularly special. What worked with Northern Dancer and Halo may not work nearly as well in other aspects of pedigrees.

And if the name Almahmoud is generally overvalued in pedigrees, so too will be inbreeding to Almahmoud. The RF “gurus” are at least partially to blame for this state of affairs. By raving over inbreeding to Almahmoud (based ONLY on the number of stakes winners and totally ignoring the number of foals involved), they have promoted the notion that there is something “special” about the name Almahmoud. When in fact Almahmoud is just another name among an ocean of names in pedigrees. And most “gurus” do not even know HOW to go about evaluating the “influence” or “value” of any given name in pedigrees.

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2 Responses to Rasmussen Factor, Almahmoud

  1. David,
    I thoroughly enjoyed reading this article and greatly appreciate how deep you always delve into the subject matter at hand. Your articles always give me food for thought and I thank you for that.

    Regards,
    Fionnuala Timoney

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