Rasmussen Factor, Natalma, Conclusions

Before proceeding to Natalma, I wanted to list all the other sales foals of 2003-2007 sold for $1,000,000 or more that I have not recently listed or mentioned. I do so for several reasons, mainly to emphasize that RF has more than its share of such $1,000,000+ foals (although I will skip the statistical demonstration). Some pretty good pedigrees are obviously involved. A variety of sires and dams are also involved.

Name                                      Price                     RR              Inbreeding

Joe Hirsch                         04Y1,150,000          UR           4×3 Crimson Saint

Giant’s Causeway–Statuette, Pancho Villa

Mystic Bell                       06T1,000,000         GSP          4×5 Flower Bowl

Dynaformer–Pulsatilla, Gone West

La Traviata                     06T1,100,000             W           5×5 Grand Splendor

Johannesburg–Piedras Negras, Unbridled

Sawtooth Mountain        07Y1,000,000         SPW         5×5 Grand Splendor

Johannesburg–American Jewel, Quiet American

Just Julian                       05Y1,600,000           W            5×5 Imperatrice

Gone West–Santa Catalina, Cure the Blues

Sapphiresndiamonds     06Y1,450,000           PL           4×3 Lassie Dear

Moneshaft–Unbridled Lassie, Unbridled

Catmando                       06Y1,000,000           UR          5×5 Miss Disco

Storm Cat–Snow Forest, Woodman

Queen of France           05Y1,450,000           SPW         4x4x5 Natalma

Danehill–Hidden Storm, Storm Cat

Top Class                       05Y1,600,000             W           4x5x5 Natalma

Storm Cat–Simadartha, Gone West

Seventh Street              07T1,000,000            W            5×5 Natalma

Street Cry–Holiday Runner, Meadowlake

Cowtown Cat                 06T1,500,000            W            5×5 Pocahontas

Distorted Humor–Tom’s Cat, Storm Cat

Queenofalldiamonds    05Y2,700,00               W           4×5 Sequence

Kingmambo–Escena, Strawberry Road

Egyptian Queen            05Y3,800,000          UR           3×4 South Ocean

Storm Cat–Warrior Queen, Quiet American

Desired                          06Y2,200,000           PL           3×4 South Ocean

Storm Cat–Warrior Queen, Quiet American

Gabanna                       03Y1,200,000            W            4×4 Special

Kingmambo–Star Begonia, Sadler’s Wells

Mythical Kid               05Y1,400,000           GSP          5×4 Special

Lemon Drop Kid–Myth to Reality, Sadler’s Wells

Note that three of the foals listed above are inbred to Natalma. Listed below are the stakes winners inbred to Natalma (including one, Indigo Cat, who sold for $2,600,000) among these sales foals of 2003-2007. I trust that the format is familiar to you by now. Discussion begins at the end of the list.

Stakes Winners Among Sales Foals of 2003-2007 Inbred to Natalma

Name                               Price                       PPI       Inbreeding

Claymont                     03Y23,000               136         5×4

Bernstein–Miss Crypto, Cryptoclearance

French Village            03T100,000             382         4×5

Jules–She’s French, Jolie’s Halo

Indigo Cat                  03Y2,600,000          165          4×5

Storm Cat–Bluemamba, Kingmambo

Jeremy                       03W375,000            1,059       5x5x5

Danehill Dancer–Glint in Her Eye, Arazi

Greenstreet                04W35,000               207         5×5

Street Cry–Very Popular, Deputy Minister

Highland Games         04Y80,000               550         4×5

Game Plan–Evergreen Beauty, Hurlingham

Palace Episode           04Y100,000              875         4×5

Machiavellian–Palace Weekend, Seattle Dancer

Queen Razyana           04Y1,300                  312         4x4x5x4

Anziyan–Missionary Kid, Robin des Pins

Abby Road                 05Y210,000               141         4x4x4

Danehill–Bells Are Ringing, Sadler’s Wells

Alice Belle                   05Y18,000                 318          5×4

Street Cry–Camporese, Sadler’s Wells

Big Timer                   05Y15,000                 465          5×4

Street Cry–Moonflute, The Minstrel

Diamondrella            05Y185,000               1,926        5x5x5x4

Rock of Gibraltar–Tap Your Feet, Dixieland Band

Genuine Devotion     05Y90,000                  676         5x5x5x5

Rock of Gibraltar–Starlight Dreams, Black Tie Affair

Street Sounds           05Y400,000              1,006       5×5

Street Cry–Rare Opportunity, Danzig Connection

Summer Doldrums  05Y150,000               1,328        5×5

Street Cry–Dance for Dixie, Unaccounted For

Alma d’Oro                06W75,000                  729         5×4

Nedaglia d’Oro–Brenda D S, Fortunate Prospect

Cry and Catch Me   06Y150,000                  626          5×5

Street Cry–Please Sign In, Doc’s Leader

Seventh Street        06Y100,000                1,516         5×5

Street Cry–Holiday Runner, Meadowlake

Tomcito                     06Y7,500                      957          5×5

Street Cry–Inside Or Outside, Eastern Echo

Proud Jefe                07Y160,000                 247           5×5

Proud Citizen–Besige, Polish Numbers

Stylish Citizen           07Y35,000                  249           5x5x5

Proud Citizen–Informative Style, Dayjur

Tropa de Elite           07Y25,000                  217           5×5

Street Cry–Cincinnatti, Midnight Tiger

I found 351 foals inbred to Natalma, and they were not cheap. Those 351 foals sold for a gross of $36,454,702, an average of $103,860, and a maverage of 239.52. Both the average and maverage were well above the overall figures of $54,140 and 163.11.

So these 351 foals should have had pretty good results, and they did. Included among these 351 foals were 22 stakes winners (6.27%, well above the overall figure of 3.36%).

And these 22 stakes winners were a pretty good group overall. All 2,373 stakes winners averaged 603 Performance Points apiece. These 22 stakes winners averaged 640 Performance Points apiece, thanks mainly to Diamondrella (1,926), Seventh Street (1,516), Summer Doldrums (1,328), Jeremy (1,059), and Street Sounds (1,006).

So taking all these factors into account, these 351 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.98, well above their corresponding Price Index of 1.47. So their prices were about 47% above average, and their results were about 98% above average.

This is obviously a very good result. Do not say that I NEVER give you anything positive. Natalma has POSITIVE results. But as Tom Waits used to say, “The large print giveth, and the small print taketh away.” Here comes the small print.

Notice that nine of these 22 stakes winners were by one sire, Street Cry. I noted in my last post that inbreeding to Natalma was very easy to achieve with Street Cry because Natalma was the third dam of his sire, Machiavellian. Therefore, all you needed was Northern Dancer within four generations on the dam’s side in order to duplicate Natalma. And Northern Dancer within four generations on the dam’s side is not exactly hard to find.

To be more specific, Street Cry had 171 foals sell as weanlings, yearlings, or two-year-olds of 2004-2007 (his first foals arrived in 2004). About 45% of them (77) were inbred to Natalma. Nine of those 77 were stakes winners and are listed above. The other 68 are listed below. I omitted their pedigrees because they were all by Street Cry, and that is the important thing about their pedigrees. Go to the end of this list for a continuation of this discussion.

Name                                   Price                   RR         Inbreeding

2004

Chelsea Ballad                    W285,000          UP           5×5

Street Charm                     W40,000           GSP          5×5

Street Minstrel                  W40,000             W            5×4

Street Sensation                W75,000              W           5×5

Bridle Way Bay                  W40,000             W            5×5

2005

Just Like Ivy                      W75,000             W            5x5x5

Checklow                            W165,000            W            5×5

Allicansayis Wow               W75,000            GSP          5×5

Street Match                      W38,000              W            5×4

Jim’s Boy                            W140,000            UP           5×5

Chun Tosaigh                     W160,000           GSP          5×5

Street Singer                       W75,000               W           5×5

Street Sharp                        W70,000              UR          5×5

Streets Apart                      W100,000            PL           5×5

Chelsea Ballad                     Y450,000             UP          5×5

Consistent Threat                Y30,000              PL           5×5

Street Charm                        Y55,000             GSP         5×5

Smashley                                Y8,500                 W           5×5

Street Number                     Y45,000               PL           5×4

Katherine Renee                  Y10,000               UR           5×5

Street Minstrel                     Y30,000                W           5×4

Seaside Links                        Y82,500              SPW         5×4

Temple Street                      Y20,000              GSP          5×5

Rhyming Slang                     Y90,000                W            5×4

Street Sensation                  Y150,000               W            5×5

Savannah Sunrise                Y30,000                UR           5×4

Gutenberg                             Y57,000                 W            5×5

Bridle Way Bay                    Y150,000               W             5×5

2006

Contretemps                         W150,000              W            5×5

Mexican Way                        W140,000              UP           5x5x5

Mission High                          W62,000                PL            5×5

Indeedingly                            W35,000                W             5×4

Napoleon’s Retreat                W17,000                W             5×5

Cloudspotter                          W275,000              PL            5×5

Discreet Street                       W35,000              SPW          5x5x5

Miss Winston                          W45,000                W             5×5

Fay Street                               Y120,000               PL            5×4

St Edward                               Y150,000                W             5×5

Lura                                         Y725,000                UP           5×5

Checklow                                 Y400,000                W            5×5

Hingham Square                     Y70,000                  PL           5×4

Agente Romano                      Y70,000                   W            5x4x5

Street Power                            Y70,000                  W            5×5

Ibbetson                                   Y107,500                PL            5×5

Street Sharp                            Y110,000                UR           5×5

Streets Apart                           Y160,000                PL           5×5

Street Talk                              T175,000                  W            5×5

Consistent Threat                   T20,000                  PL            5×5

Street Charm                           T27,000                 GSP           5×5

Street Number                        T260,000                PL            5×4

Street Bird                                T35,000                  W             5×5

Katherine Renee                      T25,000                  UR           5×5

2007

Big Easy Street                         W75,000                 UP           5×4

Fluster                                      Y300,000                 W            5×5

Celestina Agostino                   Y200,000                 W            5×5

Indeedingly                              Y200,000                 W            5×4

Open Outcry                            Y120,000                  W            5x4x5

Cloudspotter                            Y750,000                  PL           5×5

unnamed (Jubilee Walk)         Y35,000                   UR           5×5

Cry for the Moon                     Y190,000                   W           5×5

Street Ball                                 Y330,000                  UR          5×5

Valid Sum                                 Y250,000                  SPW        5×4

Denis of Kerry                           Y15,000                     PL          5×5

Street Contender                      Y25,000                     W           5×4

Brickyard                                   Y90,000                   SPW        5×5

Miss Winston                             Y185,000                    W          5×5

Seventh Street                         T1,000,000                 W           5×5

Street Crier                                 T17,000                     UP         5×5

These 77 foals were even more expensive and had even better results than the other foals inbred to Natalma. These 77 foals sold for a gross of $10,552,000, an average of $137,039, and a maverage of 318.90. Both the average and maverage were well above the overall fgures of $54,140 and 163.11.

Nine stakes winners from 77 foals is 11.69%, well above the overall figure of 3.36%. And these nine stakes winners were a pretty good group overall, averaging 738 Performance Points apiece (thanks mainly to Seventh Street, Summer Doldrums, and Street Sounds).

So taking all these factors into account, these 77 foals had a PPI (result) of 4.26, well above their corresponding Price Index of 1.96. So their prices were about 96% above average, but their results were about 326% above average.

The good news is that inbreeding to Natalma appeared to work very well with Street Cry. The bad news is that without Street Cry, the results of inbreeding to Natalma are actually pretty ordinary.

If you subtract those 77 foals by Street Cry from the total of 351 foals, you have a remainder of 274 foals which sold for a gross of $25,902,702, an average of $94,535, and a maverage of 217.22. The average and maverage are still high, but not as high as before.

So these 274 foals should have had pretty good results, and they were not bad. They included 13 stakes winners (4.74%, well above the overall figure of 3.36%). Those 13 stakes winners averaged only 573 Performance Points apiece though (compared to the overall average of 603).

Taking all these factors into account, these 274 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.34, just a shade above their corresponding Price Index of 1.33. Again, this is a result only a statistician could love. When prices and results are that closer together, it means that the market was working efficiently. It means that you were getting exactly what you paid for, not much more and not much less. So without Street Cry, inbreeding to Natalma was just about average compared to its prices.

These 22 stakes winners earned a total of 14,097 Performance Points. One stakes winner by Street Cry singlehandedly earned 13,705 Performance Points. That of course was Zenyatta, who was NOT inbred to Natalma or any other female.

Zenyatta did have some duplications in her pedigree (5×4 to Hail to Reason and Hoist the Flag and 5×5 to Nashua). Do you really think those distant duplications had anything to do with Zenyatta’s greatness?????? If you do, I have for sale some “oceanfront property in Arizona. . . . And if you buy that, I’ll throw the Golden Gate in free.”

As I noted in La Troienne, Conclusions, La Troienne has become an object of religious worship. The same is true of Somethingroyal, Almahmoud, Gold Digger, Natalma, and all the other female names duplicated in pedigrees. The same is true of all male names duplicated in pedigrees as well.

Too much name worship. Too much misplaced faith in thaumaturgy. Not enough evaluation of whether or not that name is actually any good in the first place, depending upon in which of the many possible pedigree positions it appears. If the name (male or female) is not gold in the first place, no amount of duplication (alchemy) is going to transmute it into “magical” results. This is true of both the Rasmussen Factor and of inbreeding in general.

And I will reiterate something I said in Sound and Fury:

As pedigrees expanded from three to four to five generations and more, people just naturally assumed that every name had to have some significance. I can even relate somewhat to that false assumption. People love names in pedigrees for many reasons. Some because they remember the actual horses attached to the names. Some because they have read the histories and learned about the actual horses that way. Some simply because many of the names are so attractive, so full of sound and fury.

Just remember the other part of that Shakespeare quote: “Full of sound and fury, SIGNIFYING NOTHING.”

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