Stakes Winner Price PP
English Channel 03Y50,000 8,219
Smart Strike–Belva, Theatrical
Benny the Bull 04Y38,000 3,953
Lucky Lionel–Comet Cat, Birdonthewire
Showing Up 04Y83,500 3,161
Strategic Mission–Miss Alethia, T. V. Commercial
Life At Ten 06Y35,000 2,778
Malibu Moon–Rahrahsixboombah, Rahy
Kinsale King 06Y27,000 2,404
Yankee Victor–Flaming Mirage, Woodman
Get Serious 05Y130,000 2,217
City Zip–Java Gal, Java Gold
Any Given Saturday 05Y1,100,000 2,184
Distorted Humor–Weekend in Indy, A.P. Indy
What do the seven stakes winners listed above have in common????? They were all sales foals of 2003-2007. They all turned out to be pretty good stakes winners (with 2,000+ Performance Points). And they all have a daughter of Man o’ War in the female line of their pedigrees.
Spotted Beauty was the sixth dam of Any Given Saturday and the eighth dam of Life At Ten. Warrior Lass was the seventh dam of English Channel. Hostility was the seventh dam of Benny the Bull. Baton Rouge was the sixth dam of Sjowing Up. War Kilt was the fifth dam of Kinsale King. Firetop was the seventh dam of Get Serious.
Spotted Beauty, Warrior Lass, Hostility, Baton Rouge, War Kilt, and Firetop were all daughters of Man o’ War, and Man o’ War was one of the most beloved horses of the 20th century. Everyone revered Man o’ War, just as everyone revered Secretariat (except maybe for a certain curmudgeonly inconoclast who shall remain unnamed).
I have already profiled the female line of Warrior Lass. War Kilt was by Man o’ War out of Friar’s Carse and was discussed in my post on the female line of Friar’s Carse. I might post in the future on the female lines of Hostility, Spotted Beauty, and Firetop (actually on Flaring Top, whose second dam was Firetop). Baton Rouge produced the stakes winners Firethorn and Creole Maid and was the fourth dam of Hail to Reason.
Just for grins, I decided to check out how good daughters of Man o’ War really are in the female line after all these years and all these generations.
They were not exactly difficult to find. Among sales foals of 2003-2007 I found 5,232 foals (about 7.4% of the total of 70,714 foals) with a daughter of Man o’ War in their female lines. I should specify that I used Man o’ War in the tenth generation (daughter in the ninth generation) as my cutoff point. There were a few more foals beyond those boundaries, but you have to draw the line somewhere.
Those 5,232 foals sold for a gross of $286,409,045, an average of $54,742 (just above the overall average of $54,140), and a maverage of 165.49 (just above the overall maverage of 163.11). So they sold for prices just slightly above average.
Included among those 5,232 foals were 203 stakes winners (3.88%, well above the overall figure of 3.39%). Those 203 stakes winners averaged 599 Performance Points apiece, just slightly below the overall average of 608.
So taking both quality and quantity of stakes winners into account, these 5,232 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.127, compared to their Price Index of 1.015. So they sold for prices about 1.5% above average and produced results about 12.7% above average. They were good value for the money.
Logically, one would think that the closer the Man o’ War daughter, the better. Logic frequently does not have much to do with the actual operation of pedigrees.
I decided to divide these 5,232 foals into two groups. The first group of 1,707 foals had Man o’ War in the fourth through seventh generations (daughter as the third through sixth dam). The second group of 3,525 foals had Man o’ War in the eighth through tenth generations (daughter as the seventh through ninth dam).
The first (closer) group had a Price Index of 0.977 and a PPI (result) of 0.966. Not much difference, but what difference there was was negative.
The second (more distant) group had a Price Index of 1.033 and a PPI (result) of 1.204. So the second (more distant) group clearly outperformed the first (closer) group. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!!!!
Actually, I am very surprised and impressed by the overall results for these daughters of Man o’ War in the female line (Price Index of 1.015 and PPI of 1.127). I am impressed mainly because of the large number of foals involved. The larger the number of foals, the greater the significance of any observed differences between price and performance. A 10% improvement is a lot more impressive over 5,000+ foals than over 500+ foals.
On the other hand, I do not wish to attribute these results to some kind of pedigree “magic.” To do so would be to fall into the La Troienne trap. Suffice it to say that daughters of Man o’ War in the female line promised little but actually delivered pretty good results. La Troienne in the female line promised the moon but delivered below-average results.