Daughters of Man o’ War in the Female Line

Stakes Winner               Price                  PP

English Channel         03Y50,000          8,219

Smart Strike–Belva, Theatrical

Benny the Bull           04Y38,000          3,953

Lucky Lionel–Comet Cat, Birdonthewire

Showing Up                04Y83,500          3,161

Strategic Mission–Miss Alethia, T. V. Commercial

Life At Ten                 06Y35,000          2,778

Malibu Moon–Rahrahsixboombah, Rahy

Kinsale King               06Y27,000           2,404

Yankee Victor–Flaming Mirage, Woodman

Get Serious                 05Y130,000        2,217

City Zip–Java Gal, Java Gold

Any Given Saturday 05Y1,100,000     2,184

Distorted Humor–Weekend in Indy, A.P. Indy

What do the seven stakes winners listed above have in common????? They were all sales foals of 2003-2007. They all turned out to be pretty good stakes winners (with 2,000+ Performance Points). And they all have a daughter of Man o’ War in the female line of their pedigrees.

Spotted Beauty was the sixth dam of Any Given Saturday and the eighth dam of Life At Ten. Warrior Lass was the seventh dam of English Channel. Hostility was the seventh dam of Benny the Bull. Baton Rouge was the sixth dam of Sjowing Up. War Kilt was the fifth dam of Kinsale King. Firetop was the seventh dam of Get Serious.

Spotted Beauty, Warrior Lass, Hostility, Baton Rouge, War Kilt, and Firetop were all daughters of Man o’ War, and Man o’ War was one of the most beloved horses of the 20th century. Everyone revered Man o’ War, just as everyone revered Secretariat (except maybe for a certain curmudgeonly inconoclast who shall remain unnamed).

I have already profiled the female line of Warrior Lass. War Kilt was by Man o’ War out of Friar’s Carse and was discussed in my post on the female line of Friar’s Carse. I might post in the future on the female lines of Hostility, Spotted Beauty, and Firetop (actually on Flaring Top, whose second dam was Firetop). Baton Rouge produced the stakes winners Firethorn and Creole Maid and was the fourth dam of Hail to Reason.

Just for grins, I decided to check out how good daughters of Man o’ War really are in the female line after all these years and all these generations.

They were not exactly difficult to find. Among sales foals of 2003-2007 I found 5,232 foals (about 7.4% of the total of 70,714 foals) with a daughter of Man o’ War in their female lines. I should specify that I used Man o’ War in the tenth generation (daughter in the ninth generation) as my cutoff point. There were a few more foals beyond those boundaries, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

Those 5,232 foals sold for a gross of $286,409,045, an average of $54,742 (just above the overall average of $54,140), and a maverage of 165.49 (just above the overall maverage of 163.11). So they sold for prices just slightly above average.

Included among those 5,232 foals were 203 stakes winners (3.88%, well above the overall figure of 3.39%). Those 203 stakes winners averaged 599 Performance Points apiece, just slightly below the overall average of 608.

So taking both quality and quantity of stakes winners into account, these 5,232 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.127, compared to their Price Index of 1.015. So they sold for prices about 1.5% above average and produced results about 12.7% above average. They were good value for the money.

Logically, one would think that the closer the Man o’ War daughter, the better. Logic frequently does not have much to do with the actual operation of pedigrees.

I decided to divide these 5,232 foals into two groups. The first group of 1,707 foals had Man o’ War in the fourth through seventh generations (daughter as the third through sixth dam). The second group of 3,525 foals had Man o’ War in the eighth through tenth generations (daughter as the seventh through ninth dam).

The first (closer) group had a Price Index of 0.977 and a PPI (result) of 0.966. Not much difference, but what difference there was was negative.

The second (more distant) group had a Price Index of 1.033 and a PPI (result) of 1.204. So the second (more distant) group clearly outperformed the first (closer) group. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!!!!

Actually, I am very surprised and impressed by the overall results for these daughters of Man o’ War in the female line (Price Index of 1.015 and PPI of 1.127). I am impressed mainly because of the large number of foals involved. The larger the number of foals, the greater the significance of any observed differences between price and performance. A 10% improvement is a lot more impressive over 5,000+ foals than over 500+ foals.

On the other hand, I do not wish to attribute these results to some kind of pedigree “magic.” To do so would be to fall into the La Troienne trap. Suffice it to say that daughters of Man o’ War in the female line promised little but actually delivered pretty good results. La Troienne in the female line promised the moon but delivered below-average results.

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2 Responses to Daughters of Man o’ War in the Female Line

  1. lorraine says:

    I was looking for daughters of the greatest horse ever (without being a “curmudgeonly inconoclast”) and I came across your article. While I’m sure there are websites I could have gone that would have STUCK to Man O’ War and his daughters, thanks for the help. And, by the way, WHY do you Secretariat fans always have to get your 2 cents in? Can’t you folks EVER talk about Man O’ War or anything about Man O’ War without bringing Secretariat in to it??? Did Count Fleet fans or Citation fans do this??? Spectacular Bid and Zenyatta fans don’t have to bring up Secretariat, so why do you feel so threatened??? Why are fans of Secretariat are SO very irritating, to say the VERY least. I’m going to go enjoy the greatest horse’s daughters!!! By the way, Man O’ War IS voted Horse of the Century, Sports Illustrated, Blood Horse, Associated Press all voted him the best horse of the Century, sorry Secretariat fans!

    • ddink55 says:

      I agree with you that Secretariat fans appear to feel “threatened” by the mention of any other great horse, including Man o’ War (notice correct spelling with lower-case o’).

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