Northern Dancer Male Line (all others)

Last time out I presented some statistics on the Storm Cat male line from sales foals of 2003-2007. I promised that the next edition would deal with the remainder of the Northern Dancer male line.

I deliberately omitted the 140 foals by Storm Cat himself among sales foal of 2003-2007 from the last discussion. Those 140 foals were indeed expensive (no surprise), selling for a maverage of 844.02 (compared to the overall maverage of 163.11) and a Price Index of 5.17 (compared to the overall figure of 1.00).

Alas and alack, those 140 foals did not exactly justify their high prices. Included among those 140 foals were 11 stakes winners (7.86%, well above the overall figure of 3.39%). But those 11 stakes winners were not particularly great, averaging only 596 Performance Points apiece (compared to the overall average of 608). And not one of those 11 achieved 2,000+ Performance Points.

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, those 140 foals had a PPI (result) of 2.27, far below their Price Index of 5.17. So they sold for prices about 417% above average and achieved results only about 127% above average.

Contrast those results to those of A.P. Indy. There were 124 foals by A.P. Indy himself among sales foal of 2003-2007. Those 124 foals were indeed expensive (no surprise), selling for a maverage of 695.73 (well above the overall maverage of 163.11) and a Price Innex of 4.27. So they were not quite as expensive as the Storm Cats (Price Index of 5.17).

The A.P. Indys did justify their high prices. Included among those 124 foals were 14 stakes winners (11.29%, compared to the overall average of 3.39% and 7.86% for Storm Cat). Included among those 14 stakes winners were Rags to Riches (2,943 Performance Points) and Master Command (2,337). So those 14 stakes winners were pretty good collectively, averaging 806 Performance Points apiece (compared to the overall average of 608).

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, those 124 foals had a PPI (result) of 4.41, just above their Price Index of 4.27. They sold for prices about 327% above average and produced results about 341% above average. They clearly outperformed the 140 foals by Storm Cat himself.

OK, enough of that. Storm Cat was supposedly the star of the Northern Dancer male line. Let us now turn our attention to the remainder of the Northern Dancer male line.

Listed below are the 12 other stakes winners with 2,000+ Performance Points from the Northern Dancer male line among sales foals of 2003-2007. I trust that the format is familiar to you by now. Discussion resumes at the end of the list.

Stakes Winner                        Price                                      PP

Forever Together              04W30,000                            5,358

Belong to Me–Constant Companion, Relaunch

Big Brown                            06Y60,000                            5,315

Boundary–Mien, Nureyev

Magna Graduate               03Y30,000                            4,183

Honor Grades–Peacock Alley, Fast Play

Jambalaya                          03Y2,500                              3,043

Langfuhr–Muskrat Suzie, Vice Regent

Soldier’s Dancer                 04W4,200                             2,825

Lost Soldier–Heather’s Dancer, Gate Dancer

Arson Squad                      03W20,000                           2,684

Brahms–Majestic Fire, Green Dancer

————————————————————

Awesome Gem                   04Y150,000                         4,138

Awesome Again–Piano, Pentelicus

Kodiak Kowboy                  05W40,000                          4,063

Posse–Kokadrie, Coronado’s Quest

Round Pond                        03Y105,000                        3,399

Awesome Again–Gift of Dance, Trempolino

Spaghetti Mouse                03Y15,372                            2,154

Archers Bay–Desert Mouse, With Approval

———————————————-

Gotta Have Her                  05Y300,000                        2,533

Royal Academy–Winnowing, Rahy

Bourbon Bay                       07Y1,700                              2,189

Sligo Bay–Coral Necklace, Conquistador Cielo

The first six are from the Danzig male line and are by six different sires. The next four are from the Deputy Minister male line and are by three different sires (the only repetition being Awesome Again, sire of both Awesome Gem and Round Pond). The last two are miscellaneous. Gotta Have Her was by Royal Academy, by Nijinsky II, by Northern Dancer. Bourbon Bay was by Sligo Bay, by Sadler’s Wells, by Northern Dancer.

The Danzig male line was actually pretty good compared to its prices. The 3,069 foals from the Danzig male line were pretty cheap, with a maverage of only 132.78 (compared to the overall maverage of 163.11) and a Price Index of 0.81.

Included among those 3,069 foals were 111 stakes winners (3.62%), above the overall figure of 3.39%. Those 111 stakes winners averaged 634 Performance Points apiece, just above the overall average of 608. So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, those 3,069 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.11, compared to their Price Index of 0.81. So they sold for prices about 19% BELOW average and produced results about 11% ABOVE average. Not bad at all. Definitely outperformed their relatively cheap prices.

The Deputy Minister male line was right behind Danzig with 3,068 foals (one behind, to be precise). Those 3,068 foals performed pretty much to their prices. They sold for a maverage of 172.26 (above the overall maverage of 163.11) and a Price Index of 1.06.

Include among those 3,068 foals were 102 stakes winners (3.32%, just below the overall figure of 3.39%). Those 102 stakes winners averaged 612 Performance Points apiece, just above the overall average of 608. So taking both quality and quantity of stakes winners into account, those 3,068 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.01, compared to their Price Index of 1.06. So they sold for prices about 6% above average and achieved results about 1% above average. Nothing too remarkable there.

The male lines of Danzig and Deputy Minister were the only branches of Northern Dancer to have more than 1,000 foals apiece among these sales foals of 2003-2007. Others included Nureyev (978 foals), Dixieland Band (907), Nijinsky II (714), Sadler’s Wells (678), and Vice Regent (543,  NOT including his son Deputy Minister). And there were also 1,310 foals by assorted other branches of the Northern Dancer male line.

I have decided not to give the details on the branches listed above and the miscellaneous group. Suffice it to say that including the 140 foals by Storm Cat himself, the 9,686 foals I categorized as the Storm Cat male line, the 327 foals I categorized as the Storm Bird male line, and the various other groups discussed above, the Northern Dancer male line has a grand total of 21,420 foals among these sales foals of 2003-2007.

If you count that all as one gigantic male line, it noses out Mr. Prospector (with 21,115 foals). However, if you count the other 1,250 foals in the Raise a Native male line (NOT Mr. Prospector), that gives the latter group 22,365 foals, and it noses out Northern Dancer. Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

These 21,420 foals in the Northern Dancer male line sold for a maverage of 169.56 (compared to the overall maverage of 163.11) and a Price Index of 1.04. Included among these 21,420 foals were 748 stakes winners (3.49%, just above the overall figure of 3.39%). These 747 stakes winners averaged only 560 Performance Points apiece, however (compared to the overall average of 608).

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 21,420 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.95, compared to their Price Index of 1.04. So they sold for prices about 4% ABOVE average and achieved results about 5% BELOW average. The two numbers are pretty close but in the WRONG direction (results below prices).

The Storm Cat male line is responsible for this negative result. If you subtract the 9,686 foals I have classified as the Storm Cat male line from the total of 21,420 foals, you get 11,734 foals who had a maverage of 152.63 (compared to the overall maverage of 163.11) and a Price Index of 0.94. These 11,734 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.96. So they sold for prices about 6% below average and produced results about 4% below average. Now the two numbers are even closer but in the RIGHT direction (results slightly higher than prices).

Northern Dancer was by Nearctic (sire of Icecapade) of course. There were also 2,220 foals in the Nearctic male line (NOT through Northern Dancer). These foals were mainly Icecapades (mainly through his sons Wild Again or Clever Trick).

These 2,220 foals were cheap, selling for a maverage of only 112.66 and a Price Index of 0.60. Included among these 2,220 foals were 52 stakes winners (2.34%, well below the overall figure of 3.39%).

Two of these 52 stakes winners were pretty good ones: Dream Rush (2,179 Performance Points ) and Dakota Phone (2,083). Dream Rush was by Wild Rush, by Wild Again, by Icecapade. Dakota Phone was by Phone Trick, by Clever Trick, by Icecapade.

Even with Dream Rush and Dakota Phone, these 52 stakes winners were not very good collectively, averaging only 474 Performance Points apiece (compared to the overall average of 608). So these 2,220 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.54, compared to their price Index of 0.60. They sold for prices about 40% below average and achieved results about 46% below average. The two numbers are pretty close, but in the WRONG direction (prices higher than results).

To recapitulate, the Northern Dancer male line accounted for more than 30% of all sales foals of 2003-2007. With that many foals, it is not surprising that collectively they did not have very good results. Danzig did have pretty good results compared to his prices. Storm Cat did NOT have very good results compared to his prices.

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