Male-Male Inbreeding to Northern Dancer and Others

Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is inbred 3×4 to Northern Dancer through Dixieland Band and Nijinsky II. This is by far the most common pattern of inbreeding to Northern Dancer, through two or more of his sons. For purposes of this discussion we are going to ignore foals with multiple inbreeding to Northern Dancer (many of which involve two or more of his sons as well), which were deal with in my last post.

Not unexpectedly, quite a few good horses are bred along this pattern. Listed below are the 15 stakes winners with 2,000+ Performance Points each among sales foals of 2003-2007 who exhibit this pattern. Discussion resumes at the end of the list.

Kip Deville (5,925 Performance Points, Kipling–Klondike Kaytie, Encino, 4×4 through Storm Bird and Nijinsky II, $20,000 as a yearling in 2004).

Big Brown (5,315, Boundary–Mien, Nureyev, 3×3 through Danzig and Nureyev, $60,000 as a yearling in 2006 and $190,000 as a two-year-old in 2007).

Hystericalady (4,591, Distorted Humor–Sacramentada, Northair, 4×3 through Danzig and Northair, $100,000 as a weanling in 2003 and $125,000 as a yearling in 2004).

Mine That Bird (3,029, Birdstone–Mining My Own, Smart Strike, 4×4 through Storm Bird and Vice Regent, $9,500 as a yearling in 2007).

Soldier’s Dancer (2,825, Lost Soldier–Heather’s Dancer, Gate Dancer, 3×4 through Danzig and Sovereign Dancer, $4,200 as a weanling in 2004).

Scat Daddy (2,734, Johannesburg–Love Style, Mr. Prospector, 5×4 through Storm Bird and Nijinsky II, $250,000 as a yearling in 2005).

Arson Squad (2,690, Brahms–Majestic Fire, Green Dancer, 3×4 through Danzig and Nijinsky II, $20,000 as a weanling in 2003 and $100,000 as a yearling in 2004).

Shared Account (2,549, Pleasantly Perfect–Silk n’ Sapphire, Smart Strike, 5×4 through Lyphard and Dixieland Band, $170,000 as a yearling in 2007).

Roman Ruler (2,521, Fusaichi Pegasus–Silvery Swan, Silver Deputy, 4×5 through Danzig and Vice Regent, $500,000 as a yearling in 2003).

Diabolical (2,467, Artax–Bonnie Byerly, Dayjur, 5×4 through Vice Regent and Danzig, $62,000 as a yearling in 2004 and $300,000 as a two-year-old in 2005).

Game Face (2,399, Menifee–Galleon of Gold, Gone West, 5×4 through Storm Bird and Danzig, $280,000 as a two-year-old in 2007).

Cosmonaut (2,298, Lemon Drop Kid–Cosmic Fire, Capote, 5×5 through Nureyev and Lyphard, $105,000 as a yearling in 2003).

General Quarters (2,227, Sky Mesa–Ecology, Unbridled’s Song, 5×4 through Storm Bird and Danzig, $20,000 as a yearling in 2007).

Careless Jewel (2,013, Tapit–Sweet and Careless, Hennessy, 5×5 through Nijinsky II and Storm Bird, $40,000 as a yearling in 2007).

Lord Shanakill (2,008, Speightstown–Green Room, Theatrical, 5×4 through Storm Bird and Nureyev, $100,000 as a yearling in 2007).

This list is pretty impressive, at least at first glance. But actually it represents almost exactly the proportions that it should. Of the 70,714 totals sales foals of 2003-2007, 94 were stakes winners with 2,000+ Performance Points. That is 0.133%. Of 10,936 foals inbred male-male to Northern Dancer, 15 were stakes winners with 2,000+ Performance Points. That is 0.137%, just a hair above the expected.

These 10,936 foals were not exactly cheap either. They sold for a gross of $791,852,733, an average of $72,408 (well above the overall average of $54,140), a maverage of 187.39 (well above the overall maverage of 163.11), and a Price Index of 1.15 (1.00 being average).

Including the 15 stakes winners listed above, there were 449 stakes winners among these 10,936 foals. That is 4.11%, well above the overall figure of 3.4%. These 101 stakes winners averaged only 566 Performance Points each though, well below the overall average of 610.

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 10,936 foals had a PPI (result) of 1.12, just slightly below their Price Index of 1.15. They sold for prices about 15% above average and achieved results about 12% above average. In terms of a letter grade, that would be a weak “B.”

Mr. Prospector is another sire with lots of male-male inbreeding. Of the 70,714, total sales foals, 5,825 (about 8.2%) had some inbreeding to Mr. Prospector. Over half of those 5,825 foals (3,119) were inbred to Mr. Prospector in the male-male fashion.

Two pretty good stakes winners are examples of this pattern. Mine That Bird was inbred to both Northern Dancer (see above) and Mr. Prospector, the latter 5×3 through Fappiano and Smart Strike. The other is Pussycat Doll (2,297 Performance Points, Real Quiet–Hookedonthefeelin, Citidancer, 4×4 through Fappiano and Allen’s Prospect, sold for $100,000 as a yearling in 2003).

These 3,119 foals were a lot cheaper than the 10,936 foals inbred male-male to Northern Dancer. These 3,119 foals sold for a gross of $167,880,872, an average of $53,825 (just a hair below the overall average of $54,140), a maverage of 163.75 (just a hair above the overall maverage of 163.11), and a Price Index of 1.00 (1.004 if you want to be exact).

Included among these 3,119 foals were 112 stakes winners (3.59%, just above the overall figure of 3.4%). These 112 stakes winners averaged only 570 Performance Points apiece though, below the overall average of 610.

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 3,119 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.99 (0.987 if you want to be exact), just below their Price Index of 1.000 (1.004 if you want to be exact). So they sold for prices about 0.4% above average and achieved results about 1.3% below average. In terms of a letter grade, that would also be a weak “B.”

Hail to Reason is another sire with many foals following the male-male pattern. Of the 70,714 total sales foal of 2003-2007, 2,096 (not quite 3%) are inbred in some fashion to Hail to Reason. Of those 2,096 foals, almost half (938) are inbred in the male-male pattern.

Hystericalady was inbred to both Northern Dancer and Hail to Reason, the latter 5×5 through Mr. Leader and Bold Reason. Another pretty good stakes winner inbred in this fashion to Hail to Reason is Zenyatta (13,705 Performance Points, Street Cry–Vertigineux, Kris S., 5×4 through Halo and Roberto, sold for $60,000 as a yearling in 2005).

These 938 foals were not exactly cheap. They sold for a gross of $65,933,943, an average of $70,292 (well above the overall average of $54,140), a maverage of 199.22, and a Price Index of 1.22.

Included among these 938 foals were 50 stakes winners (5.33%, well above the overall figure of 3.4%). These 50 stakes winners averaged 815 Performance Points apiece, well above the overall average of 610. These 938 foals had a PPI (result) of 2.10, which compares quite favorably with their Price Index of 1.22. They sold for prices about 22% above average and achieved results about 110% above average. That is an excellent performance of course, an “A+++” if there ever was one.

The only problem is that Zenyatta accounts for about one-third of that success. Without Zenyatta, the PPI is only 1.39, which still compares favorably with the Price Index of 1.22. A PPI of 1.39 is much more in the ballpark with a Price Index of 1.22 than 2.10 over 1.22.

Secretariat is also a popular source of inbreeding. Of the 70,714 total sales foals, 1,857 (about 2.6%) are inbred in some fashion to Secretariat. Only ten of those 1,857 foals were inbred to Secretariat in the male-male fashion. They were dirt cheap (average of $8,515, maverage of 57.60, and Price Index of 0.35), but they did include one stakes winner who earned 718 Performance Points. I am not going to attempt to claim any relevancy to the discussion from only ten foals.

To recapitulate, inbreeding in the male-male fashion to Hail to Reason had positive results, even without Zenyatta. Inbreeding in the male-male fashion to both Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector had slightly negative results. Overall, it seems to be yet another case of the odl adage, you get pretty much what you paid for.

Of the 1,857 foals inbred to Secretariat, 1,389 (almost 75%) were inbred in the female-female fashion, which will be the subject of my next post.

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2 Responses to Male-Male Inbreeding to Northern Dancer and Others

  1. Double Jay says:

    I am interested in a little more information on Big Brown. He is 3X3 to Northern Dancer but in a sire line-broodmare sire line pattern. He is by Boundary (byDanzig, by ND) out of Mien, by Nureyev, A kind of double whammy, top and bottom. Does this sire line and broodmare sire line combo produce good results? Is it better than other types of sire line patterns (male-male duplications)?

    Also does that type of close inbreeding, 3X3 or closer, like in Big Brown, produce good results?

    I have a non Big Brown question too. As I have been watching the Royal Ascot races I have noticed many other horses, besides Frankel, are also by Galileo. I can’t wait to see them stretch Frankel out in distance. He reminded me of that Big Red horse pulling away from the pack so effortlessly, a different class of horse than the rest. I hope I have not made a sacrilegious comment in that very premature comparison. But he sure is exciting to watch!

    Any comments on his pedigree? Is there any way you could do your computations on Galileo? I wish they would ship Zenyatta’s big butt over there to him! Is there a comparably bred sire here is the U.S.?

    Also I have heard people mention breeding her to Frankel when he is at stud. Is the sire preferable to the son as far as pedigree? I used to have a link to a international sport horse link that might be helpful in tracking Galileo’s progeny but of course I lost it when I switched computers. I used it one time to track Whirlaway’s progeny in Europe. I actually found a few descendants racing jumps!

    Speaking of Whirlaway and his high jinks on the track, watching the 2 yr old Reckless Abandon bouncing off the side rail and still winning, made me think of the old boy:) This is a horse to watch if they can just teach him to go straight. He drifted so far out to the far rail he was out of the camera sight, which is pretty wide in those races. It just made me laugh and laugh. The jockey had to use the whip, which is greatly frowned upon but I don’t think he had a choice. What if the horse had hit the rail or over it into the so well dressed crowd?

    Also I really far out question: What about So You Think. He was bred in New Zealand. He is more likely to travel about I Think.

    I realize we have no results yet from her foal & baby on the way, so this would be based on the combination of results you have seen in their pedigrees. Any suggestions for possible future sires for the Mighty Mare?
    I
    I know I have given you a lot to chew on but I know you are up to the challenge! No immediate results are expected.

  2. Pingback: Questions About Frankel | Boojum's Bonanza

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