I have been posting some results about particular methods of inbreeding to four renowned sires (Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Hail to Reason, and Secretariat) among Northern American sales foals of 2003-2007. Today I am gonna cut to the chase a little more directly than usual. Below are the results (in a compressed format) for the total results of inbreeding to all four sires in this group.
Sire Foals Average Maverage Price Index PPI (result)
Northern Dancer 16,698 $64,145 177.32 1.09 1.09
Mr. Prospector 5,825 68,250 190.17 1.17 1.31
Hail to Reason 2,096 68,598 184.55 1.13 1.44
Secretariat 1,857 113,697 232.52 1.43 1.15
Totals 26,476 68,876 184.59 1.13 1.17
Inbreeding to ND showed up most often of course (16,698 foals), followed by Mr. Prospector (5,825 foals), Hail to Reason (2,096 foals), and Secretariat (1,857 foals).
The foals inbred to these four stallions were all expensive. The overall average was $54,140, and the individual averages ranged from $64,145 (Northern Dancer) to $113,697 (Secretariat). The overall maverage was 163.11, and the individual maverages ranged from Northern Dancer (177.32) to Secretariat (232.52). By definition the overall Price Index is 1.00. The individual Price Indexes ranged from Northern Dancer (1.09) to Secretariat (1.43).
Given that the Price Indexes were all above 1.00, it is no surprise that the results for all four sires were all above 1.00 as well. As usual, what is most interesting is the differences between the Price Indexes and the PPIs (results).
Hail to Reason was clearly the best (Price Index of 1.13 and PPI of 1.44). Mr. Prospector was also good (Price Index of 1.13 and PPI of 1.31). Northern Dancer was almost exactly as expected (Price Index of 1.09 and PPI of 1.09). Secretariat was by far the most disappointing (Price Index of 1.43 and PPI of 1.15).
As detailed in my post Inbreeding Female-Female to Secretariat and Others, Secretariat’s LACK of success is mainly attributable to female-female inbreeding (Price Index of 1.55 and PPI of 1.20). Purely for amusement, I point out that the more precise numbers for Northern Dancer are a Price Index of 1.087 and a PPI of 1.085.
Just to satisfy my insatiable thirst for knowledge as usual, I also tracked the results of these four stallions as sires of second, third, and fourth dams within the same group (sales foals of 2003-2007). Some pretty good stakes winners were involved, as usual (see below). Some of these were inbred to one of the four sires; some of them were not; I did not distinguish between the two groups.
Court Vision (6,547 Performance Points, Gulch–Weekend Storm, Storm Bird, 2nd dam Weekend Surprise, Secretariat, sold for $180,000 as a yearling in 2006 and $350,000 as a two-year-old in 2007).
Informed Decision (5,014, Monarchos–Palangana, His Majesty, 2nd dam Countess North, Northern Dancer, sold for $150,000 as a yearling in 2006 and $320,000 as a two-year-old in 2007).
Life At Ten (2,778, Malibu Moon–Rahrahsixboombah, Rahy, 3rd dam Belle o’ Reason, Hail to Reason, sold for $35,000 as a yearling in 2006).
Haynesfield (2,719, Speightstown–Nothing Special, Tejabo, 3rd dam Cool Mood, Northern Dancer, sold for $100,000 as a yearling in 2007 and $20,000 as a two-year-old in 2008).
Leah’s Secret (2,559, Tiger Ridge–Lady Cruella, Capote, 2nd dam Mary’s Spirit, Mr. Prospector, sold for $50,000 as a yearling in 2004).
Zanjero (2,521, Cherokee Run–Checkered Flag, A.P. Indy, 2nd dam Shawnee Creek, Mr. Prospector, sold for $700,000 as a yearling in 2005).
Tizway (2,459,Tiznow–Bethany, Dayjur, 4th dam Lauries Dancer, Northern Dancer, sold for $140,000 as a yearling in 2006).
Dangerous Midge (2,390, Lion Heart–Adored Slew, Seattle Slew, 3rd dam Straight Deal, Hail to Reason, sold for $120,000 as a yearling in 2007).
Red Giant (2,192, Giant’s Causeway–Beyond the Sun, Kingmambo, 4th dam Royal Statue, Northern Dancer, sold for $350,000 as a yearling in 2005).
Dream Rush (2,179, Wild Rush–Turbo Dream, Unbridled, 2nd dam Reve de Fee, Mr. Prospector, sold for $90,000 as a yearling in 2005 and $285,000 as a two-year-old in 2006).
So, a fairly impressive collection of stakes winners. The four sires stack up individually as follows:
Sires of Second, Third, and Fourth Dams
Sire Foals Average Maverage Price Index PPI (result)
Northern Dancer 1,580 $73,271 199.79 1.22 1.34
Mr. Prospector 1,292 101,405 225.37 1.38 1.49
Hail to Reason 977 80,693 200.11 1.23 1.96
Secretariat 1,211 78,525 194.83 1.19 1.39
Totals 5,060 83,145 205.19 1.26 1.51
Without belaboring these numbers too much, I merely wish to point out that all four sires had higher PPIs (results) than Price Indexes. The same can not be said for the same four sires being duplicated (inbred).
The important point I wish to make here concerns the totals for the four sires. The 26,476 foals inbred to these four sires in some fashion had a Price Index of 1.13 and a PPI (result) of 1.17, only marginal improvement.
The 5,060 foals with these four stallions as the sires of their second, third, or fourth dams (whether duplicated or not) had a Price Index of 1.26 and a PPI (result) of 1.51. That is a much more substantial improvement of performance over price.
Which leads me to ask this obvious question: Why XXXX around inbreeding to sires when you can achieve better results simply by concentrating on those foals with the same sires in the most valuable positions (as the sires of the second, third, or fourth dams)???? Anyone care to venture an answer to that question????????