Totals–Cut to the Chase

I have been posting some results about particular methods of inbreeding to four renowned sires (Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Hail to Reason, and Secretariat) among Northern American sales foals of 2003-2007. Today I am gonna cut to the chase a little more directly than usual. Below are the results (in a compressed format) for the total results of inbreeding to all four sires in this group.

Sire                               Foals     Average          Maverage          Price Index          PPI (result)

Northern Dancer       16,698    $64,145             177.32                   1.09                      1.09

Mr. Prospector            5,825      68,250             190.17                   1.17                       1.31

Hail to Reason              2,096      68,598             184.55                   1.13                      1.44

Secretariat                    1,857     113,697             232.52                   1.43                      1.15

Totals                           26,476      68,876             184.59                   1.13                      1.17

Inbreeding to ND showed up most often of course (16,698 foals), followed by Mr. Prospector (5,825 foals), Hail to Reason (2,096 foals), and Secretariat (1,857 foals).

The foals inbred to these four stallions were all expensive. The overall average was $54,140, and the individual averages ranged from $64,145 (Northern Dancer) to $113,697 (Secretariat). The overall maverage was 163.11, and the individual maverages ranged from Northern Dancer (177.32) to Secretariat (232.52). By definition the overall Price Index is 1.00. The individual Price Indexes ranged from Northern Dancer (1.09) to Secretariat (1.43).

Given that the Price Indexes were all above 1.00, it is no surprise that the results for all four sires were all above 1.00 as well. As usual, what is most interesting is the differences between the Price Indexes and the PPIs (results).

Hail to Reason was clearly the best (Price Index of 1.13 and PPI of 1.44). Mr. Prospector was also good (Price Index of 1.13 and PPI of 1.31). Northern Dancer was almost exactly as expected (Price Index of 1.09 and PPI of 1.09). Secretariat was by far the most disappointing (Price Index of 1.43 and PPI of 1.15).

As detailed in my post Inbreeding Female-Female to Secretariat and Others, Secretariat’s LACK of success is mainly attributable to female-female inbreeding (Price Index of 1.55 and PPI of 1.20). Purely for amusement, I point out that the more precise numbers for Northern Dancer are a Price Index of 1.087 and a PPI of 1.085.

Just to satisfy my insatiable thirst for knowledge as usual, I also tracked the results of these four stallions as sires of second, third, and fourth dams within the same group (sales foals of 2003-2007). Some pretty good stakes winners were involved, as usual (see below). Some of these were inbred to one of the four sires; some of them were not; I did not distinguish between the two groups.

Court Vision (6,547 Performance Points, Gulch–Weekend Storm, Storm Bird, 2nd dam Weekend Surprise, Secretariat, sold for $180,000 as a yearling in 2006 and $350,000 as a two-year-old in 2007).

Informed Decision (5,014, Monarchos–Palangana, His Majesty, 2nd dam Countess North, Northern Dancer, sold for $150,000 as a yearling in 2006 and $320,000 as a two-year-old in 2007).

Life At Ten (2,778, Malibu Moon–Rahrahsixboombah, Rahy, 3rd dam Belle o’ Reason, Hail to Reason, sold for $35,000 as a yearling in 2006).

Haynesfield (2,719, Speightstown–Nothing Special, Tejabo, 3rd dam Cool Mood, Northern Dancer, sold for $100,000 as a yearling in 2007 and $20,000 as a two-year-old in 2008).

Leah’s Secret (2,559, Tiger Ridge–Lady Cruella, Capote, 2nd dam Mary’s Spirit, Mr. Prospector, sold for $50,000 as a yearling in 2004).

Zanjero (2,521, Cherokee Run–Checkered Flag, A.P. Indy, 2nd dam Shawnee Creek, Mr. Prospector, sold for $700,000 as a yearling in 2005).

Tizway (2,459,Tiznow–Bethany, Dayjur, 4th dam Lauries Dancer, Northern Dancer, sold for $140,000 as a yearling in 2006).

Dangerous Midge (2,390, Lion Heart–Adored Slew, Seattle Slew, 3rd dam Straight Deal, Hail to Reason, sold for $120,000 as a yearling in 2007).

Red Giant (2,192, Giant’s Causeway–Beyond the Sun, Kingmambo, 4th dam Royal Statue, Northern Dancer, sold for $350,000 as a yearling in 2005).

Dream Rush (2,179, Wild Rush–Turbo Dream, Unbridled, 2nd dam Reve de Fee, Mr. Prospector, sold for $90,000 as a yearling in 2005 and $285,000 as a two-year-old in 2006).

So, a fairly impressive collection of stakes winners. The four sires stack up individually as follows:

Sires of Second, Third, and Fourth Dams

Sire                               Foals     Average          Maverage          Price Index          PPI (result)

Northern Dancer         1,580    $73,271              199.79                    1.22                     1.34

Mr. Prospector             1,292    101,405             225.37                    1.38                     1.49

Hail to Reason                 977       80,693             200.11                    1.23                     1.96

Secretariat                     1,211      78,525              194.83                    1.19                     1.39

Totals                              5,060     83,145              205.19                   1.26                     1.51

Without belaboring these numbers too much, I merely wish to point out that all four sires had higher PPIs (results) than Price Indexes. The same can not be said for the same four sires being duplicated (inbred).

The important point I wish to make here concerns the totals for the four sires. The 26,476 foals inbred to these four sires in some fashion had a Price Index of 1.13 and a PPI (result) of 1.17, only marginal improvement.

The 5,060 foals with these four stallions as the sires of their second, third, or fourth dams (whether duplicated or not) had a Price Index of 1.26 and a PPI (result) of 1.51. That is a much more substantial improvement of performance over price.

Which leads me to ask this obvious question: Why XXXX around inbreeding to sires when you can achieve better results simply by concentrating on those foals with the same sires in the most valuable positions (as the sires of the second, third, or fourth dams)???? Anyone care to venture an answer to that question????????

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3 Responses to Totals–Cut to the Chase

  1. jim culpepper says:

    How else would you get 2nd and third dams inbred to those sires unless someone actual inbreeds to them?

    • ddink55 says:

      I do not understand your point at all.
      There were slightly more than 5,000 foals with second, third, or fourth dams by the four sires in question among these sales foals of 2003-2007. Some also had duplications of the sire in question higher up in their pedigrees (through the sire). Some did not. Offhand I would guess that the split was about 50-50.
      But my point was that the duplications were irrelevant. These four sires obviously functioned well as sires of second, third, or fourth dams. BETTER than they functioned when duplicated overall. BETTER both in overall terms and contrasted to their prices. I thought that was a better approach to breeding a good horse (or picking a good horse out of sale). I thought I expressed THAT. Perhaps I failed to make myself clear.
      Perhaps you wished to make the point that if I make enough FUN of inbreeding, the practice will actually DECREASE, and then I will have a DEARTH of material for COMEDY. If that is the case, then I do not disagree too much.
      Except that the human need to practice duplicating names in pedigrees is a lot like its need to develop romantic/sexual obsessions. Or its need to rely upon alcohol and/or drugs of various natures as its dependencies of choice. In other words, it will NEVER completely go away. I have no WORRIES on that score. Breeders will NEVER change their minds based upon whatever I have to say, no matter how COMPELLING the EVIDENCE I put before them. Human nature is human nature. It is IMPERVIOUS to logic or facts. So I am a DON QUIXOTE. But at least I KNOW that and function accordingly.

      Hope this answers your comment or question (which I did not understand) at least somewhat and not TOO PHILOSOPHICALLY!!!!!!

  2. Pingback: Mr. Prospector–Inbred Versus Outcrossed | Boojum's Bonanza

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