A few days ago I posted on the Iron Maiden branch of the Betty Derr female line. It had pretty good results from below-average prices. Today I will examine the Judy-Rae branch of the Betty Derr female line, which is a lot more commercially viable than the Iron Maiden branch.
Listed below are the six stakes winners among sales foals of 2003-2007 tracing to Judy-Rae in the female line. I trust that the format is familiar to you by now. Discussion resumes at the end of the list.
Mr. Nightlinger (1,344 Performance Points. Indian Charlie–Timely Quarrel, Time for a Change, 6th, Judy Rullah, sold for $45,000 as a weanling in 2004 and for $45,000 as a yearling in 2005).
Acey Deucey (1,184, Abaginone–Misty Mountains, Al Nasr, 5th, Princess Matoaka, sold for $35,000 as a two-year-old in 2004).
Wasseema (306, Danzig–Vantive, Mr. Prospector, 5th, Tulle, sold for $500,000 as a yearling in 2004).
Commercialize (303, Robyn Dancer–Commercial Flight, Northjet, 4th, Bye Bye Judy, sold for $38,000 as a two-year-old in 2004).
Fenway Faithful (204, Grand Slam–Lemon Tart, Deputy Minister, 6th, Tulle, sold for $120,000 as a weanling in 2007).
Pitamakan (197, Danzig–Vantive, Mr. Prospector, 5th, Tulle, sold for $400,000 as a yearling in 2005).
Judy-Rae was a 1944 filly by Beau Pere out of Betty Derr, by Sir Gallahad III. She posted a record of 18-3-3-2 for earnings of $36,680 and was one of three stakes winners produced by Betty Derr. At stud Judy-Rae produced nine foals, six starters, all winners, including stakes winner Judy Rullah (1953 filly by Nasrullah).
Judy Rullah was actually a better producer than her dam. She produced nine foals, all winners, and three stakes winners: Creme dela Creme (1963 colt by Olympia), Rhubarb (1964 filly by Barbizon), and Juke Joint (1970 filly by Raise a Native). Mr. Nightlinger, the best of the six stakes winners listed above, traces to Judy Rullah.
Princess Matoaka, an unraced 1956 filly by Princequillo out of Judy-Rae, also has some claim to fame. She produced two stakes winners from her 13 foals: Hillbilly II (1965 colt by Hillsdale) and Palauli (1966 colt by Pago Pago).
Princess Ribot, a winning 1964 filly by Ribot out of Princess Matoaka, carried on the line. She produced three stakes winners (all by Chieftain) from her ten foals: Tappahannock (1972 filly), Cascapedia (1973 filly), and Chieftains Prince (1976 colt). Cascapedia was champion handicap mare in 1977. She was a stakes producer and the second dam of G1 winner Acey Deucey among the six stakes winners listed above.
But by far the most familiar twig of this branch started with Tulle, a 1950 filly by War Admiral out of Judy-Rae. Tulle posted a record of 34-2-4-6 for earnings of $10,400. At stud she produced 13 foals, 12 starters, ten winners, and two stakes winners: Auhsan (1963 colt by Nashua) and Tom Tulle (1970 colt by Tom Rolfe). Tom Tulle (produced by his dam at the age of 20) was by far the better of the two, winning ten (including four stakes) of 20 starts and earning $210,299.
Courtly Dee (1968 filly by Never Bend out of Tulle) was even better, though her racetrack record of 33-4-4-3 for earnings of $19,426 was only moderate. Courtly Dee produced 18 foals, 17 starters, 15 winners, and eight stakes winners, the best of whom was 1983 champion two-year-old filly Althea (by Alydar).
That led to Courtly Dee being honored as 1983 Broodmare of the Year. The family has proliferated ever since. Althea produced four stakes winners from five foals herself and is the second dam of Arch, sire of Blame, winner of the BC Classic and champion older male two years ago. Three of the six stakes winners listed above trace to Betty Derr through Courtly Dee, including the full siblings Wasseema and Pitamakan.
I found 258 foals among these sales foals of 2003-2007 tracing to Betty Derr in the female line through Judy-Rae (many of them through Courtly Dee). They ranged from the fourth through the seventh generations (Judy-Rae as their fourth through seventh dams). The six stakes winners listed above ranged from the fourth through sixth generations (Judy-Rae as their fourth through sixth dams).
Thanks to the Courtly Dee contribution, these 258 foals were not at all cheap. They sold for a gross of $23,422,819, an average of $90,786 (well above the overall average of $54,140), a maverage of 218.43 (well above the overall maverage of 163.11), and a Price Index of 1.34.
Six stakes winners from 258 foals is 2.33%, well below the overall figure of 3.40%. The six stakes winners listed above averaged 590 Performance Points apiece, just below the overall average of 610.
So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 258 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.66, way below their Price Index of 1.34. They sold for prices about 34% ABOVE average and produced results about 34% BELOW average.
If you combine the two groups (Iron Maiden and Judy-Rae), 368 foals sold for a gross of $28,071,551, an average of $76,533 (above the overall average of $54,140), a maverage of 201.42 (above the overall maverage of 163.11), and a Price Index of 1.24.
Thirteen stakes winners from 368 foals is 3.53%, above the overall figure of 3.40%. Those 13 stakes winners averaged only 556 Performance Points apiece though, below the overall average of 610.
So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 368 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.95, which still does not compare favorably with their Price Index of 1.24. They sold for prices about 24% ABOVE average and produced results about 5% BELOW average. That is better than Judy-Rae alone but still not good.
All things statistical (including political polls) have their margins of error. I would suggest that Judy-Rae is probably not as bad as her numbers appear and that Iron Maiden is probably not as good as her numbers appear. The combined results are probably pretty close to accurate for the whole group.
Speaking of margins of error, that is a concept to keep in mind while handicapping the upcoming Breeders’ Cup races. Racehorses have their margins of error as well. A nag who ran a good last race is probably not gonna run as well this time. A nag who ran a poor last race is probably not gonna run as poorly this time out. Successful handicapping includes fingering out which nags are gonna run their best races under the circumstances of today’s race.
OK, I have belabored the obvious, but a little reminder is not out of order. Enjoy the races, and (in the words of Joe Hill) good luck to all of you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!