Degree of Inbreeding

In my last post I compared the distributions by degree of closest inbreeding for an earlier group (all North American-bred named foals of 1983) versus a more recent group (sales foals of 2003-2007). Prices for sales foals of 2003-2007 by degree of closest inbreeding are listed in the chart below.

The categories are 2×2, 2×3 (which includes 3×2), 2×4 (which includes 4×2), 2×5 (which includes 5×2), 3×3, 3×4 (which includes 4×3), 4×4, 4×5 (which includes 5×4), and 5×5. I have also included an independent category for multiples (foals with three or more duplications of the same ancestor within five generations). Discussion resumes after the chart below.

Category      Foals        Gross        Average        Maverage        Price Index

2×2               10        $78,000        $7,800              65.90               0.40

2×3              317     $17,055,448    $53,803           136.48             0.84

2×4             714       $64,608,790    $90,489          201.86             1.24

2×5            164       $17,777,540      $108,400       226.95             1.39

3×3          2,190     $135,702,857    $61,965          163.76             1.00

3×4          8,314      $569,697,072    $68,523         180.59             1.11

3×5         3,828       $215,857,241    $56,389         164.09             1.01

4×4      10,443       $600,714,194    $57,523          170.22            1.04

4×5     16,223        $869,774,023    $53,614          164.07            1.01

5×5      11,465       $534,480,906    $46,618          152.23            0.93

Totals   53,668      $3,025,746,071  $56,379         165.80           1.012

Multiple 9,719       $501,774,148      $51,628         160.25            0.98

Just to review, the overall average for all 70,714 foals was $54,140, the overall maverage was 163.11, and the Price Index was 1.00 by definition.

The 2×2 and 2×3 groups were the cheapest, with Prices Indexes of 0.40 and 0.84 respectively. Those were the two most closely inbred groups. The least closely inbred group, 5×5, was also cheap at 0.93. Multiples were also cheap at 0.98. The 3×3 group was right on the money at 1.00. The other six groups were all 1.01 or higher, with 2×5 being highest of all at 1.39. All 53,668 inbred foals came in at 1.012.

Listed below are the best stakes winners (those with 2,000+ Performance Points) for each group. They are listed in descending order (best first), with the sire or dam duplicated in parentheses. Note that there were zero such stakes winners for the 2×2 and 2×3 groups (and no stakes winners at all for the 2×2 group, albeit from only ten foals). Discussion resumes after the lists.

2×4—Scat Daddy (2,734, Mr. Prospector), Roman Ruler (2,521, Mr. Prospector).

3×3—Big Brown (5,315, Northern Dancer), Gladiatorus (5,242, Blushing Groom),  Jambalaya (3,043, Northern Dancer), Octave (2,761, Caro), Master Command (2,337, Secretariat), Cosmonaut (2,298, Seattle Slew).

3×4—Informed Decision (5,014, Northern Dancer), Hystericalady (4,591, Northern Dancer), Flat Out (3,737, Northern Dancer), Brother Derek (3,311, Raise a Native), Rail Trip (2,909, Mr. Prospector), Soldier’s Dancer (2,825, Northern Dancer), Arson Squad (2,690, Northern Dancer), Miraculous Miss (2,032, Mr. Prospector).

3×5—Sand Cove (2,030, Victoria Park).

4×4—Kip Deville (5,925, Northern Dancer), David Junior (5,716, Never Bend), Awesome Gem (4,481, Mr. Prospector), Magna Graduate (4,183, Buckpasser), Kodiak Kowboy (4,063, Mr. Prospector), Mine That Bird (3,029, Northern Dancer), Ravalo (2,756, Northern Dancer), Diabolical (2,467, Mr. Prospector), Dangerous Midge (2,390, Hail to Reason), Pollard’s Vision (2,330, Nijinsky II), Diamond Stripes (2,278, Bold Ruler), Pussycat Doll (2,297, Mr. Prospector), Pool Play (2,241, Northern Dancer), Friendly Island (2,070, In Reality), Corinthian (2,067, Raise a Native), Win Willy (2,054, Northern Dancer).

4×5—Zenyatta (13,705, Hail to Reason and Hoist the Flag), Court Vision (6,547, Native Dancer), Wait a While (5,382, Buckpasser), Stardom Bound (3,862, Raise a Native), Rio de La Plata (3,505, Nasrullah), Round Pond (3,399, Northern Dancer and Victoria Regina), Sun King (3,240, Nearctic), Never Retreat (3,099, Turn-to), Jonesboro (3,051, Nasrullah), Gayego (2,851, Bold Ruler), Surf Cat (2,845, Buckpasser), Life At Ten (2,778, Raise a Native), Haynesfield (2,719, Northern Dancer), Shared Account (2,549, Northern Dancer and Raise a Native), Get Serious (2,523, Nijinsky II), Tizway (2,459, Northern Dancer), Game Face (2,399, Northern Dancer and Secretariat), Shadowbdancing (2,399, Swaps), Monashee (2,394, Princequillo), Big City Man (2,322, Nashua), Naughty New Yorker (2,290, Native Dancer and Rough’n Tumble), Bear Now (2,254, In Reality), Arravale (2,230, Never Bend), General Quarters (2,227, Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, and Round Table), Red Giant (2,192, Northern Dancer), Capt. Candyman Can (2,192, Mr. Prospector), Dakota Phone (2,083, Mr. Prospector), Lord Shanakill (2,008, Northern Dancer).

5×5–Good Ba Ba (3,685, Nasrullah), Showing Up (3,161, Nasrullah), In Summation (3,026, Bold Ruler), Bourbon Bay (2,969, Native Dancer and Turn-to), Rags to Riches (2,943, Nasrullah), Unrivaled Belle (2,855, In Reality), Jeranimo (2,692, Nasrullah), Silver Train (2,659, Bold Ruler), Balance (2,648, Nashua), Leah’s Secret (2,559, Nasrullah and Nearctic), Seattle Smooth (2,501, Princequillo), War Pass (2,383, Nasrullah), Dream Rush (2,179, Native Dancer), Spaghetti Mouse (2,159, Northern Dancer), Panty Raid (2,152, Tom Fool), Careless Jewel (2,013, Northern Dancer and Secretariat), Adieu (2,008, Bold Ruler).

Multiple—Awesome Gem (4,481, Raise a Native), Good Ba Ba (3,685, Nasrullah), Round Pond (3,399, Northern Dancer), Jambalaya (3,043, Nearctic and Northern Dancer), Octave (2,761, Chamossaire), Haynesfield (2,719, Northern Dancer), Tizway (2,459, Northern Dancer), Dangerous Midge (2,390, Hail to Reason), War Pass (2,383, Nasrullah), Master Command (2,337, Bold Ruler), Pollard’s Vision (2,330, Northern Dancer), Pussycat Doll (2,297, Raise a Native), Naughty New Yorker (2,290, Rough’n Tumble), Diamond Stripes (2,278, Nasrullah), Red Giant (2,192, Northern Dancer).

The chart below summarizes the results for all the groups. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of the stakes winners involved. Just to review, The norms were 3.41% stakes winners from foals, with an average of 615 Performance Points per stakes winner. Discussion resumes after the chart below.

Results by Degree of Inbreeding

Category    Foals      Stakes Winners     %      APPPSW      PPI

2×2               10                     0                  0              0            0.00

2×3              317                    4                 1.26       285            0.17

2×4             714                    23                3.22       689           1.06

2×5            164                      5                 3.05       455           0.66

3×3          2,190                   55                2.51        753           0.90

3×4          8,314                  325                3.91       609          1.14

3×5         3,828                   146                3.81       497          0.90

4×4        10,443                  357                3.42       627          1.02

4×5        16,223                  551                3.40       645          1.04

5×5         11,465                 407                3.55       588           1.00

Totals     53,668              1,873                3.49       614          1.022

Multiple  9,719                   322                3.31       624          0.99

A PPI of 1.00 is average. Six of the groups (mainly the most closely inbred ones) were below 1.00 (below average). Four of the groups were above 1.00 (above average). The 5×5 group was right on the money at 1.00. The 3×4 group was best at 1.14. The PPI (result) for all 53,668 inbred foals was 1.022.

The final chart below compares prices (Price Index) to results (PPI) for the assorted groups. Discussion resumes after that chart.

Prices Versus Results by Degree of Inbreeding

Category             Price Index           PPI

2×2                            0.40                  0.00

2×3                            0.84                  0.17

2×4                            1.24                   1.06

2×5                            1.39                   0.66

3×3                            1.00                   0.90

3×4                            1.11                    1.14

3×5                            1.01                   0.90

4×4                            1.04                   1.02

4×5                            1.01                   1.04

5×5                            0.93                   1.00

Totals                       1.012                  1.022

Multiple                    0.98                    0.99

The five most closely inbred groups were all underperformers. The 2×2 group was 0.40 (price) to 0.00 (result). The 2×3 group was 0.84 to 0.17. The 2×4 group was 1.24 to 1.06. The 2×5 group was particularly disappointing, with the highest Price Index of all at 1.39 and an anemic PPI (result) of 0.66. The 3×3 group was 1.00 to 0.90. The 3×5 and 4×4 groups were also underperformers. The former was 1.01 to 0.90. The latter was 1.04 to 1.02.

Only three groups were overachievers. The 3×4 group was 1.11 to 1.14. The 4×5 group was 1.01 to 1.04. The 5×5 group was 0.93 to 1.00.

Those three groups accounted for 67% (36,002) of all 53,668 inbred foals. That enabled all 53,668 inbred foals to post a slightly positive result, 1.012 to 1.022. They sold for prices about 1.2% above average and achieved results about 2.2% above average. Pretty much par for the course, in other words.

The multiple group was independent and not counted in the totals for all 53,668 foals. They were counted twice, in other words, once as a multiple and once in the appropriate category of degree of inbreeding. Awesome Gem, for example, was counted as both a 4×4 and a multiple. The multiple group was slightly positive, 0.98 (price) to 0.99 (result). Again, pretty much par for the course.

I cannot truthfully say that all these results are the least bit surprising to me. I have done this before, and it turned out pretty much the same way for sales foals of 2003-2007 as it did for all North American-bred foals of 1983. The only difference is that 4×4 was decidedly best for the latter group while 3×4 was narrowly best for the former group. You could construe that as evidence that the breed in North America is slightly more inbred now than it was 20+ years ago if you so like.

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