Mr. Prospector–Inbred Versus Outcrossed

I thought it might be interesting to compare the presences of Mr. Prospector among sales foals of 2003-2007 by dividing them into two groups: Mr. Prospector duplicated between sire and dam (inbred) and Mr. Prospector not duplicated between sire and dam (not duplicated). I have already examined the former (see Totals–Cut to the Chase and the posts linking back from there). Today I will examine the latter.

Let us begin by listing the best stakes winners (those with 2,000+ Performance Points) having Mr. Prospector (not duplicated) in their pedigrees. I have done so below for the second through fifth generations and have broken it down further by positions within each generation. The stakes winners are listed in descending order (best ones first).

At the end of each paragraph I have listed the Price Index and PPI (result) for all the foals in that category. That way you can see at a glance whether the overall results for a given category were good or bad or close to expected relative to their prices. There were plenty of examples of all three possibilities.

Stakes winners with 2,000+ Performance Points showed up at all the possible positions except P2 in the second generation (broodmare sire) and P7 and P8 in the fourth generation. I lumped the fifth generation into one category of its own (did not try to differentiate among the 16 possible positions there). Discussion resumes after the lists below.

2nd Generation, P1: Curlin (13,802 Performance Points), English Channel (8,219), Court Vision (6,547), Showing Up (3,161), Never Retreat (3,099), Pollard’s Vision (2,330). Price Index 1.21, PPI 1.77.

2nd Generation, P2: none. Price Index 2.22, PPI 1.52.

3rd Generation, P1: Zenyatta (13,705), Kip Deville (5,925), Afleet Alex (4,666), Hystericalady (4,591), Jonesboro (3,051), Ravalo (2,756), Haynesfield (2,719), Balance (2,648), Get Serious (2,523), Seattle Smooth (2,501), Big City Man (2,322), Cosmonaut (2,298), Naughty New Yorker (2,290), Any Given Saturday (2,184), Friendly Island (2,070), City to City (2,030), Lord Shanakill (2,008). Price Index 1.00, PPI 0.97.

3rd Generation, P2: Flat Out (3,737), Life At Ten (2,778), Pool Play (2,241), Corinthian (2,067). Price Index 1.20, PPI 1.27.

3rd Generation, P3: Brother Derek (3,311), Bourbon Bay (2,969), Surf Cat (2,845), Shared Account (2,549), Kinsale King (2,404), Game Face (2,399), Swift Temper (2,397), Red Giant (2,192), Win Willy (2,054). Price Index 1.10, PPI 0.99.

3rd Generation, P4: Leah’s Secret (2,559), Zanjero (2,521), Dream Rush (2,179). Price Index 1.49, PPI 2.04.

4th Generation, P1: Midnight Lute (4,091), Unbridled Belle (3,310), Pioneerof the Nile (3,034), Unrivaled Belle (2,855), Octave (2,761), Thorn Song (2,433), Adieu (2,008), Fatal Bullet (2,003). Price Index 1.17, PPI 1.13.

4th Generation, P2: Stardom Bound (3,862), Dangerous Midge (2,390), Spaghetti Mouse (2,159), Careless Jewel (2,013). Price Index 1.16, PPI 1.78.

4th Generation, P3: Benny the Bull (3,953). Price Index 0.86, PPI 0.79.

4th Generation, P4: Round Pond (3,399), Macho Again (2,926). Price Index 1.40, PPI 1.11.

4th Generation, P5: Dream Rush (2,179). Price Index 0.91, PPI 0.72.

4th Generation, P6: In Summation (3,026), Tizway (2,459). Price Index 1.04, PPI 1.45.

4th Generation, P7: none. Price Index 0.97, PPI 1.17.

4th Generation, P8: none. Price Index 0.91, PPI 1.49.

5th Generation: Stardom Bound (3,862, P5), Careless Jewel (2,013, P5), Adieu (2,008, P6). Price Index 1.10, PPI 1.06.

Listed below are the details on the prices. I decide to spare you the details on every single position and lumped them into generations instead. Mr. Prospector (not duplicated) showed up 35,766 times (more than half of all 70,714 foals). He showed up most often in the third generation, then the fourth generation, then the second generation, then the fifth generation (no surprises at all there). Discussion resumes after the chart below.

Prices for Foals With Mr. Prospector (not duplicated)

Generation     Foals          Gross                Average          Maverage       Price Index

2nd                  3,623     $330,536,127      $91,233              209.75              1.29

3rd                 16,902   $1,027,483,605    $60,791              174.79               1.07

4th                  12,897    $740,761,976       $57,437              169.96              1.04

5th                   2,344     $120,568,172      $51,437               178.95              1.10

Totals             35,766    $2,219,349,880   $62,052             176.81              1.08

Note that the averages behaved as expected, dropping from $92,233 in the second generation to $60,791 in the third generation to $57,437 in the third generation and to $51,437 in the fifth generation. The overall average for all 70,714 foals was $54,140. So the fifth generation was the only one below the norm.

The maverages also dropped from 209.75 in the second generation to 174.79 in the third generation to 169.96 in the fourth generation, but then went back up to 178.95 in the fifth generation. The fifth generation was more consistent than the other three generations but did not hit nearly as many home runs (nags sold for HIGH prices such as $1,000,000+).

The overall maverage for all 70,714 foals was 163.11. All five groups were above that. The Price Indexes by definition reflect the maverages. The overall average for all 35,766 foals was $62,052 (compared to the norm of $54,140), the overall maverage was 176.81 (compared to the norm of 163.11), and the overall Price Index was 1.08 (1.00 being the norm by definition).

The chart below shows the racetrack results for the same five categories. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of the stakes winners involved. The overall average is 615 Performance Points per stakes winner. The overall percentage of stakes winners from foals is 3.41%. Those are the norms for the chart below. Discussion resumes at the end of this chart.

Results for Foals With Mr. Prospector (not duplicated)

Generation       Foals      Stakes Winners       %          APPPSW           PPI

2nd                    3,623               189                 5.22            703               1.75

3rd                   16,902              608                 3.60            611               1.05

4th                   12,897               461                  3.57            600              1.02

5th                     2,344                 79                  3.37            660              1.06

Totals              35,766             1,337                 3.74            623               1.11

Not unexpectedly, the second generation was by far the best at 1.75. The third generation came in at 1.05, the fourth at 1.02, and the fifth at 1.06. The overall PPI was 1.11 (thanks mainly to the second generation).

Prices Versus Results for Foals With Mr. Prospector (not duplicated)

Generation              Price Index             PPI

2nd                                  1.29                   1.75

3rd                                   1.07                  1.05

4th                                   1.04                  1.02

5th                                   1.10                   1.06

Totals                              1.08                   1.11

The chart above is fairly self explanatory. It compares prices to results for the five categories. The second generation kicked ass (a result of 1.75 from a price of 1.29). The other three generations did not. In fact their results were all slightly lower than their prices (1.05 to 1.07 for the third generation, 1.02 to 1.04 for the fourth generation, and 1.06 to 1.10 for the fifth generation). Overall though, thanks to the second generation, results were slightly positive (1.11 to 1.08).

In addition to these 35,766 foals with Mr. Prospector (not duplicated), there were another 5,825 foals with duplications to Mr. Prospector between sire and dam (inbred). These 5,825 foals sold for an average of $68,250 (compared to the overall average of $54,140 and $62,052 for the foals not duplicated). These 5,825 foals sold for a maverage of 190.17 (compared to the overall maverage of 163.11 and 176.81 for the foals not duplicated).

These 5,825 foals sold for a Price Index of 1.17 and had a PPI (result) of 1.31. (See Totals–Cut to the Chase and the posts linking back from there for details).

So the 35,766 foals with Mr. Prospector (not duplicated) improved from a price of 1.08 to a result of 1.11. The 5,825 foals with Mr. Prospector duplicated between sire and dam (inbred) improved from a price of 1.17 to a result of 1.31. The latter improvement is visibly better than the former improvement. So you might even say that inbreeding to Mr. Prospector did improve results compared to not inbreeding to Mr. Prospector.

I would not expect that to hold up as a general rule with all sires (or dams). Mr. Prospector is Mr. Prospector. Other sires could have exactly the opposite results. I hope to examine a few other sires similarly in the future and find out.

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