“Orb and Revolutionary have something else in common. Something about their pedigrees that the other 17 starters yesterday did NOT have. It is pretty obscure. Anyone care to take a guess??????”
The above is from my last post, but there were no takers. So I reckon I am gonna have to explicate it myself.
Both Orb and Revolutionary are both 5×5 to Bold Ruler. None of the other 17 starters had any duplications of Bold Ruler in their first five generations. Orb’s duplications come through Secretariat and Laughter. Revolutionary’s duplications come through Bayou Blue and Secretariat.
Some pedigree “experts” might leap to the conclusion that these duplications are somehow “significant,” that they are “positive influences” to the racing class of the two colts.
It just so happens that I have some numbers available on “inbreeding” (if you want to call it that) to Bold Ruler among sales foals of 2003-2007. Just about 11% (7,779 of 70,714) of this group have duplications of Bold Ruler between sire and dam among these sales foals of 2003-2007.
These 7,779 foals sold for a gross of $403,701,274, an average of $51,896 (just below the overall average of $54,140), a maverage of 159.22 (just below the overall maverage of 163.11), and a Price Index of 0.98 (1.oo being average). So they sold for prices just slightly below average.
Included among these 7,779 foals were some pretty good stakes winners: In Summation (3,026 Performance Points), Gayego (2,851), Soldier’s Dancer (2,825), Silver Train (2,659), Master Command (2,337), Diamond Stripes (2,278), Corinthian (2,067), and Adieu (2,008).
Master Command was a multiple (three or more duplications of Bold Ruler within five generations), and Soldier’s Dancer was bred on the male-female pattern. The other six were all bred on the male-male pattern, which accounted for 4,550 of those 7,779 foals.
Included among those 7,779 foals were 244 stakes winners (3.14%, below the overall figure of 3.41%). Those 244 stakes winners averaged 568 Performance Points apiece, below the overall average of 616.
So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 7,779 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.85, well below their Price Index of 0.98. They sold for prices about 2% below average and achieved results about 15% below average.
That is NOT a good result. So inbreeding to Bold Ruler, at least among these sales foals of 2003-2007, was more of a negative than a positive “influence.” And as for Orb and Revolutionary, it is an insignificant coincidence and nothing more.