Zenyatta, Curlin, and English Channel (a pretty big IF)

So dosage is a “method of pedigree classification.” Like it or not, those classifications are going to have varying prices and results. It is always fascinating (at least to me) to see how prices and results vary for any pedigree factor (be it a theory, a “method of classification,” or whatever).

Dosage is no exception. So I decided to see how prices and results varied for assorted ranges of DI and CD using sales foals of 2003-2007. The prices for DI ranges are summarized below. Keep in mind that the overall average for all 70,714 foals is $50,140, the overall maverage is 163.11, and the Price Index is 1.00 by definition.

Also, there were ten foals with no dosage points at all. These foals were omitted from the charts below. That is the reason they add up to 70,704 foals (not the actual total of 70,714).

DI Range               Foals                   Average             Maverage              Price Index

1.00 or lower        1,844                   $36,924               127.85                        0.78

1.01-2.00             16,822                  $50,939              155.79                        0.96

2.01-2.99             18,741                   $49,523              160.17                        0.98

3.00                      10,458                   $55,511              163.14                       1.00

3.01-4.00             12,507                  $73,661               186.26                       1.14

4.01+                    10,332                  $45,824              158.70                        0.97

The most popular of these DI ranges is 2.01-2.99, with 18,741 foals. More than half (37,407 of these 70,704 foals) had DIs of 2.99 or lower. So the median is somewhere high in the 2.01-2.99 range, say about 2.75.

A DI of exactly 3.00 was also very popular, with 10,548 foals, which is why I gave it a range of its own. Undoubted that is the mode (the number that appears most frequently) of this population.

The prices themselves are below average up to 2.99 (with the lowest range having the lowest prices of all). The two ranges from 3.00 to 4.00 have above-average prices. The 4.01+ range is slightly below average, well above 1.00 or lower, and about in line with the ranges from 1.01 to 2.99.

The overall lesson here is that the middle ranges produced the highest prices. The lowest range had by far the lowest prices. The highest range was only slightly below average.

Listed below are prices for assorted CD ranges.

CD Range               Foals                   Average             Maverage              Price Index

Zero or lower        1,143                   $31,881                118.07                       0.72

0.01-0.50            14,410                  $51,365               155.37                        0.95

0.51-0.79             24,818                  $57,916               170.09                       1.04

0.80-0.99            17,143                   $60,191               168.53                      1.03

1.00                       4,257                   $45,753                151.11                       0.93

1.01+                    8,933                    $43,410               157.39                       0.96

The 0.51-0.79 range was by far the most popular, with 24,818 foals. More than half (40,371 of these 70,704 foals) had CDs up to 0.79. So the median is somewhere high in the 0.51-0.79 range, maybe about 0.75.

This chart shows the same overall pattern as the first one. The highest prices were produced by the two middle ranges (0.51 to 0.99). The other four ranges all had below-average prices, with the lowest range (zero or lower) being lowest of all.

The chart below lists the results by DI ranges. The overall percentage of stakes winners from foals was 3.42%. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved (the average being 620).

DI Range                Foals             SWs           %           APPPSW           PPI (result)

1.00 or lower        1,844              42            2.28             673                     0.73

1.01-2.00             16,822            520          3.09             610                     0.89

2.01-2.99             18,741             642          3.43              647                    1.05

3.00                      10,458            401          3.83              593                    1.08

3.01-4.00             12,507           504           4.03             630                    1.20

4.01+                    10,322           306           2.96             590                    0.83

These results pretty much reflected their prices. The middle ranges from 2.01 to 4.00 all had positive results. The fringe results were all negative (in keeping with their prices). The lowest range had the worst result of all.

Listed below are the results by CD ranges.

CD Range                Foals             SWs           %           APPPSW           PPI (result)

Zero or lower        1,143                20          1.75             720                    0.60

0.01-0.50            14,410              439         3.05            599                    0.86

0.51-0.79             24,818              897         3.61             662                    1.13

0.80-0.99            17,143              600         3.50             607                    1.01

1.00                       4,257               159         3.74              575                    1.02

1.01+                    8,933               300         3.36              565                    0.90

This chart looks pretty much like the one above it. The results reflected the prices. The middle ranges from 0.51 to 1.00 all had positive results. The fringe results were all negative (in keeping with their prices). The lowest range had the worst result of all.

Of course the most important test is the comparison between prices and results, which is listed below for DI ranges.

DI Range               Foals                  Price Index                PPI (result)

1.00 or lower        1,844                         0.78                          0.73

1.01-2.00             16,822                       0.96                          0.89

2.01-2.99             18,741                       0.98                           1.05

3.00                      10,458                      1.00                           1.08

3.01-4.00             12,507                      1.14                            1.20

4.01+                    10,322                      0.97                            0.83

The three middle ranges (2.01 to 4.00) all had good results (PPIs higher than Price Indexes). The fringe ranges all had poor results (PPIs lower than Price Indexes).

Listed below are the comparisons between prices and results for CD ranges.

DI Range               Foals                  Price Index                PPI (result)

Zero or lower        1,143                        0.72                          0.60

0.01-0.50            14,410                       0.95                          0.86

0.51-0.79             24,818                      1.04                           1.13

0.80-0.99            17,143                       1.03                           1.01

1.00                       4,257                        0.93                          1.02

1.01+                    8,933                        0.96                           0.90

The 0.51-0.79 and 1.00 ranges both had good results (PPIs higher than Price Indexes). The other four ranges all had poor results (PPIs lower than Price Indexes).

The best overall performer appears to be the 0.51-0.79 CD range, with a Price Index of 1.04 and a PPI (result) of 1.13. So that group sold for prices about 4% above average and achieved results about 13% above average. Not bad.

I said “appears to be” for a reason though. The three best stakes winners in this whole group were Zenyatta, Curlin, and English Channel. All three fell into that 0.51-0.79 CD range. Without those three the results for that range were 1.065, still better than their Price Index of 1.04 but not nearly as good as 1.13.

For the record, here are their dosage numbers. Zenyatta has a DI of 2.00 and a CD of 0.58. Curlin has a DI of 3.00 and a CD of 0.71. English Channel has a DI of 2.64 and a CD of 0.65.

All six of those numbers are very near the middle of the population. And the middle ranges for both DI and CD produce the best prices and results. Lower and higher ranges are not nearly as good, particularly the former. That is the overall lesson of this study.

IF dosage has anything to do with performance at all. That remains a pretty big IF.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s