He Was Not Unique

I demonstrated in my last post that mares inbred 4×4 or closer to Northern Dancer, Hail to Reason, and Mr. Prospector did have pretty good results among sales foals of 2003-2007. Now I do the same for all sires with a significant number of foals out of mares thusly inbred, starting with prices.

Mare Inbred To          Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Northern Dancer        3,180          $60,177             174.68                    1.07

Bold Ruler                    1,898          $56,244            164.52                    1.01

Raise a Native             1,718           $48,047            160.55                    0.98

Native Dancer             1,657          $60,425             183.63                    1.13

Nasrullah                      1,628         $44,385             145.73                    0.89

Nearctic                           682          $45,334            156.39                    0.96

Princequillo                     654          $43,370            148.74                    0.91

Turn-to                           635          $52,111             159.01                    0.97

Buckpasser                     554          $89,073             197.38                    1.21

Hail to Reason               480          $47,101              157.37                    0.96

Nashua                           435           $59,541             176.22                    1.08

Ribot                               402          $34,394             135.64                    0.83

Tom Fool                       391           $49,590             161.15                    0.99

Mr. Prospector             374           $73,977              169.76                    1.04

Secretariat                    203           $59,941             186.51                     1.14

all others                      4,952         $50,038            154.10                     0.94

Totals                          18,386        $54,426             164.31                     1.01

The overall average for all 70,714 sales foals was $54,140. The overall maverage for all sales foals was 163.11. Sixteen groups (including all others) are listed above. Only seven of them had maverages above 163.11 (Price Indexes above 1.00, the overall average by definition).

Buckpasser had the highest average ($89,073) and maverage (197.38, which translates into a Price Index of 1.21). The prices were all pretty close to the overall benchmarks though, the Price Indexes ranging only from 0.83 to 1.21.

The 4,952 foals in the all others group includes 1,308 foals whose dams were inbred to females. The dams of some foals were inbred to more than one ancestor. The individual numbers do not add up to the total of 18,386 for this reason, because such duplications were eliminated.

Below are the results for all 16 groups. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, 620 being average.

Mare Inbred To          Foals          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Northern Dancer         3,180                   140                   4.40           673                      1.40

Bold Ruler                     1,898                    66                    3.48           620                      1.02

Raise a Native              1,718                    51                     2.97           686                      0.96

Native Dancer              1,657                    47                     2.84           582                      0.78

Nasrullah                       1,628                   35                     2.15          586                       0.60

Nearctic                            682                   20                     2.93          538                       0.75

Princequillo                      654                   14                     2.14          525                       0.53

Turn-to                            635                   22                     3.46           433                       0.71

Buckpasser                      554                    28                    5.05           481                      1.15

Hail to Reason                 480                    22                    4.58           693                      1.50

Nashua                             435                    19                     4.37           462                      0.95

Ribot                                 402                    11                     2.74           880                      1.14

Tom Fool                         391                     14                     3.58          454                       0.77

Mr. Prospector               374                    16                     4.28           716                       1.45

Secretariat                      203                      5                     2.46           584                      0.68

all others                        4,952                 158                    3.19           556                       0.84

Totals                            18,386                620                   3.38           598                       0.95

The only three sires other than Northern Dancer, Hail to Reason, and Mr. Prospector to achieve a PPI (result) higher than 1.00 were Buckpasser (1.15), Ribot (1.14), and Bold Ruler (1.02). The other ten groups were all below 1.00. All 18,386 foals collectively were at 0.95.

The table below compares prices to results.

Mare Inbred To           Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)

Northern Dancer         3,180                1.07                     1.40

Bold Ruler                     1,898               1.01                      1.02

Raise a Native              1,718               0.98                      0.96

Native Dancer              1,657               1.13                      0.78

Nasrullah                       1,628              0.89                     0.60

Nearctic                            682              0.96                     0.75

Princequillo                      654              0.91                     0.53

Turn-to                            635               0.97                     0.71

Buckpasser                     554                1.21                      1.15

Hail to Reason                480                0.96                     1.50

Nashua                            435                1.08                      0.95

Ribot                                402                0.83                     1.14

Tom Fool                         391                0.99                     0.77

Mr. Prospector               374                1.04                     1.45

Secretariat                      203                1.14                     0.68

all others                        4,952              0.94                    0.84

Totals                            18,386             1.01                     0.95

Northern Dancer, Hail to Reason, and Mr. Prospector fared well, as already mentioned. Only two other sires posted better results than prices. Ribot had a Price Index of 0.83 and a result of 1.14 (thanks to 880 average Performance Points per stakes winner). Bold Ruler just barely qualified with a Price Index of 1.01 and a result of 1.02.

The other 11 groups all had lower results than prices. They all underperformed, in other worlds. The Price Index for all 18,386 foals was 1.01, but their results were only 0.95. So they sold for prices about 1% ABOVE average and achieved results about 5% BELOW average. Needless to say, that is the opposite of what you want to see to support “proof” of a particular theory.

I hope that all this illustrates that you cannot just use certain sires (Northern Dancer, Hail to Reason, and Mr. Prospector in this example) to attempt to “prove” a theory. If a theory applies ONLY to certain sires, that in itself disproves it. A theory needs to be tested over the entire gamut of the population.

And speaking of populations, those 18,386 foals represent 26% of the entire population of 70,714 sales foals of 2003-2007. That is a large segment of the entire population.

Perhaps “Uncle” Abe Hewitt failed to take into account what a large segment of the population is out of mares (or by sires) with “close-up” inbreeding. He was looking at the best horses only and ASSUMING that their inbreeding “build up” was somehow UNIQUE and responsible for the quality of those good horses.

He was certainly NOT looking at their entire population to determine how many BAD horses were similarly bred. In this he was not unique. Almost all writers on Thoroughbred pedigrees up to the time of “Uncle” Abe Hewitt have made this same mistake (looking at good horses only). Only recently has this fundamental mistake begun to be rectified.

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