Yet Other Waters

Some of you might have thought that I was gonna beat those poor sales foals of 2003-2007 to death. Not so!!!!! I have moved on to sales foals of 2008-2011 and recently completed my first sweep of that group.

The first order of business is to compare prices for the two groups, sales foals of 2003-2007 and sales foals of 2008-2011.

Group            Foals Sold          Average          Maverage

2003-2007        70,714           $54,140            163.11

2008-2111         45,562           $46,418           154.00

Change              –19.5%         –14.6%            –5.6%

As most of you undoubtedly recall, 2008-2011 were not good years in the North American sales markets. The overall average was down 14.6% ($54,140 to $46,418) from 2003-2007 to 2008-2111. The overall maverage was down 5.6% (163.11 to 154.00) in that same time period.

The actual number sold was down 35.7% (70,714 to 45,562) in that time period. But the former time period encompassed five years, while the latter encompassed only four years. So I prorated the latter to five years and came up with the figure of –19.5% listed above. Even prorated at –19.5%, that is still a pretty significant drop in sales volume.

Some good news and bad news from the recently concluded 2014 Keeneland September yearling sale compared to its counterpart in 2010 (see my previous post).

The good news is that the average for the Keeneland September sale was up 53% ($64,811 to $99,312) from 2010 to 2014. The maverage was up 32% (195.63 to 257.64).

The bad news is that the number sold was down 9.2% from 3,059 in 2010 to 2,819 in 2014. However, the number cataloged was 4,857 in 2010, compared to 4,181 in 2014. So the percentage of lots sold actually increased from 63% (3,059 of 4,857) in 2010 to 67% (2,189 of 4,181) in 2014. Still, the continued decline in total sales volume is somewhat worrisome.

While performing this first sweep of 20110-2014 sales foals naturally I had to take some angle on it all. I chose a relatively simple angle, age of mares (the difference in ages between mare and foal; a mare born in 2000 with a foal of 2010 has an age of ten). Apologies if I have published results on this angle before.

To paraphrase some Heraclitus, you can never step into the same river twice because that river is always full of yet other waters. To translate that somewhat, a new sample group could always yield a different result. So do not be afraid of repeating yourself by looking at the same angle with a different sample group.

Listed below are the prices for sales foals of 2008-2111 by age of mares.

Age          Foals Sold          Average          Maverage          Price Index

3                      60                $31,079            125.62                     0.82

4                   1,208              $38,014            133.72                     0.87

5                   3,073              $43,392            151.30                    0.98

6                   4,480              $46,986            159.02                    1.03

7                    4,783              $48,944            158.88                    1.03

8                    4,836              $48,920           158.65                    1.03

9                     4,312             $49,580           159.25                    1.03

10                   3,807             $46,772           154.97                     1.01

11                   3,465              $46,322          154.95                     1.01

12                   3,021              $40,874          144.38                     0.94

13                   2,610             $44,459           149.72                     0.97

14                   2,199              $48,399           154.89                    1.01

15                   1,866              $45,327            153.40                   1.00

16                   1,478              $50,356            156.24                   1.01

17                   1,217               $46,117             151.00                  0.98

18                      997              $44,869             145.33                  0.94

19                      733               $48,454            150.75                  0.98

20+                1,417                $41,557            145.02                 0.94

Keeping in mind that the overall average for sales foals of 2008-2111 was $46,418 and the overall maverage was 154, you can see just by glancing at the table above that the results for individual groups did not vary much from the norms. In terms of Price Index, ages three and four were the lowest at 0.82 and 0.87, respectively. All the other groups fell into a range from 0.94 to 1.03. Four groups (ages six through nine) were at 1.03. Not one group was higher than 1.03.

So based on these prices, buyers did not expect age of mares to make much difference at all to racetrack results. We will examine those racetrack results tomorrow and see if they were right or wrong.

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