Far From Convincing

I mentioned that I might take a look at the 2010-2011-2012 Ocala August yearling sales to see how their results by nick ratings compared to the 2010 Keeneland September yearling sale. I thought that the former might have a lower proportion of yearlings with A nicks sold than the latter, which would facilitate better results for A Nicks from the former.

Here is how the prices worked out.

Nick Rating          Number Sold          Average          Maverage          Price Index

A                                       631               $16,803             104.82                    0.99

B                                       289               $18,783             106.82                    1.01

C                                       312                $16,835            104.94                    0.99

D                                       341                $17,222            108.63                    1.03

Not Rated                          92                $17,518            101.63                    0.96

Totals                             1,665               $17,278            105.80                   1.00

About 40% of the yearlings sold at the 2010 Keeneland September sale were A nicks. About 38% (631 of 1,665) of the yearlings sold at the 2010-2011-2012 Ocala August sales were A nicks. So not really much difference there at all.

The prices were obviously much lower at the latter than the former. A nicks were actually the cheapest of the five groups listed above by both averages and maverages. That is somewhat surprising.

The Price Indexes for the five groups listed above varied only from 0.96 to 1.03. The prices were very tightly bunched, in other words. This leads me to believe that the prices listed above were all pretty much random. It is as if no one at these three sales was paying any attention to the nick ratings at all.

That very well might have been the case. The six cheat books for the 2010-2011-2012 Ocala August sales cost a total of $570 ($95 each). The six cheat books for the 2010 Keeneland September sale cost $1,050 ($175 each). The latter was a much better investment than the former (many more horses sold for much higher prices, making the latter much more cost efficient on a basis of total dollars potentially invested).

Listed below are the stakes winners sold from these three Ocala sales.

A Stakes Winners

Caviar N Champagne (Formal Dinner—Arctic Dove, Dove Hunt), 10Y13,000, 802 Performance Points.

Yara (Put It Back—Ashlee’s Lady, Gilded Time), 10Y12,000, 798.

Wildcat Lily (D’wildcat—French Jubilee, French Deputy), 11Y20,000, 727.

Quality Lass (Exclusive Quality—On the Podium, Bold Executive), 10Y40,000, 615.

Solitary Ranger (U S Ranger—Galileo’s Star, Lil E. Tee), 11Y28,000, 512.

East Hall (Grame Hall—East Long Lake, Sultry Song), 12Y23,000, 464.

Miss Derek (Brother Derek—Quick Text, Tiznow), 11Y60,000, 459.

Majestic Stride (Trippi—Great Looking Miss, Great Above), 10Y50,000, 456.

Making Amends (Repent—Primary Motive, Prime Timber), 10Y14,000, 354.

Crafty Blue Kat (Crafty Shaw—Blue Katana, Formal Dinner), 12Y2,700, 351.

Evolution Rocks (City Zip—Final Toy, Fortunate Prospect), 10Y14,000, 308.

Clawback (Put It Back—Cloudrunner, Dixieland Band), 11Y27,000, 278.

Tanzanite Cat (Graeme Hall—Gentle Wave, Mt. Livermore), 12Y9,000, 248.

Germaniac (Henny Hughes—Judy Soda, Personal Flag), 12Y75,000, 226.

Awalkinthemoonlite (Repent—My Oasis, Meadowlake), 10Y17,000, 225.

Le Gris (Half Ours—La Flamenco, El Corredor), 12Y10,000, 216.

Hi Fashioned (Old Fashioned—Zamsweet, Zamindar), 12Y67,000, 205.

D’honorable One (D’wildcat—Silver Shannon, Pentelicus), 10Y52,000, 200.

Wild About Chrome (Indian Ocean—Keri’s Snowman, Frosty the Snowman), 10Y30,000, 187.

Crafty Unicorn (Friends Lake—Unicorn Kid, Lemon Drop Kid), 10Y10,000, 187.

Florida Sun (Belgravia—Wildcat Widow, Forest Wildcat), 12Y1,200, 186.

Fly in the Soup (Alphabet Soup—Flyinghannah, Sefapiano), 10Y6,000, 185.

Split the Queens (Limehouse—Cupid Season, Cobra King), 12Y8,000, 154.

B Stakes Winners

Ive Struck a Nerve (Yankee Gentleman—Ranaway, Cryptoclearance), 11Y17,000, 606.

Speed Seeker (Heatseeker—Seraphic Too, Southern Halo), 12Y10,000, 319.

Hello Prince (Halo’s Image—Jestress, Doneraile Court), 10Y14,000, 319.

D’nied Permission (D’wildcat—Sanctioned, Maudlin), 11Y18,000, 267.

Made to Love Her (Stevie Wonderboy—Love Boot, Storm Boot), 10Y22,000, 258.

Xunlei (D’wildcat—Promenade Road, Dance Brightly), 10Y90,000, 235.

C Stakes Winners

Istanford (Istan—Aerocat, Tale of the Cat), 12Y25,000, 985.

Vexor (Wildcat Heir—Real Clever Trick, Yes It’s True), 10Y90,000, 487.

Dreamsgonewild (Freud—Twin Stroller, Strolling Along), 10Y22,000, 427.

Brothersofthetime (Bob and John—Hostility, Devil His Due), 12Y32,000, 250.

Hip Four Sixtynine (Southern Image—Gentle Wave, Mt. Livermore), 11Y4,500, 249.

St. Louis City (City Place—Keikik, Aloha Prospector), 10Y6,000, 246.

Persuasive Paul (Olmodavor—Witch of the Air, Lure), 11Y2,500, 225.

Lamento Hipico (Peace Rules—Smart Link, Numerous), 10Y3,700, 214.

Sweetmarys Success (Teuflesberg—Sky’s Honor, Double Honor), 12Y55,000, 192.

Balmaran (Yes It’s True—Free Space, Aldebaran), 11Y9,500, 185.

Najran Breeze (Najran—Fun Flower, Came Home), 11Y20,000, 185.

Ciaran’s Prize (Yes It’s True—Think Fast, Crafty Prospector), 12Y28,000, 182.

Indian Assault (Indian Ocean—See My Agent, Skip Trial), 10Y3,000, 164.

D Stakes Winners

Master Rick (Master Command—Whata Gem, Maria’s Mon), 10Y30,000, 1,147.

Another Romance (Saint Anddan—Love To, Friendly Lover), 10Y10,000, 503.

Aracelis Baby M. (Simon Pure—Shannons Debut, Stormy Atlantic), 10Y9,000, 362.

Angelofdistinction (With Distinction—God’s Little Angel, Wild Wonder), 10Y7,500, 333.

Distinctiv Passion (With Distinction—Dance Forthe Green, West by West), 11Y65,000, 322.

Louies Flower (Flower Alley—Tembisa, Johannesburg), 12Y25,000, 318.

Really Mr Greeley (Horse Greeley—Mattie Camp, Forest Camp), 11Y13,000, 290.

Greed and Fear (Bob and John—Chirimoya, Cobra King), 10Y17,000, 283.

Putitinmypocket (Put It Back—Irish Drop, Way West), 11Y12,500, 253.

Tree of Life (Lion Heart—Professora, Gulch), 11Y60,000, 234.

Italo (With Distinction—Dance Forthe Green, West by West), 10Y42,000, 207.

Exclusively Maria (Exclusive Quality—Going Away Blues, Cure the Blues), 10Y1,700, 203.

Joe Pike (Benny the Bull—Allofeverything, Dove Hunt), 12Y7,500, 181.

Lucrecia (Flower Alley—Sweetness, Stormy Atlantic), 12Y3,000, 151.

Not Rated Stakes Winners

Egg Drop (Alphabet Soup—Rehocracy, Adhocracy), 10Y12,000, 1,534.

Verso a Verso (Circular Quay—Folk Art, Bertrando), 11Y5,500, 308.

Here’s Johnny (Colonel John—Bon Caro, Bon Point), 12Y220,000, 271.

Boy of Summer (Exclusive Quality—Melancholy Baby, Maudlin), 11Y12,000, 211.

The results are summarized below. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved.

Nick Rating          Number Sold          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW      PPI (Result)

A                                     631                           23                      3.65            363                1.03

B                                     289                             6                      2.08            334                0.54

C                                     312                           13                       4.17            307                0.99

D                                     341                           14                       4.11            342                1.09

Not Rated                        92                            4                        4.35           581                 1.96

Totals                           1,665                         60                       3.60           357                1.00

Because the prices for these three sales were much lower than the prices for the 2010 Keeneland September sale, its results obviously were much lower as well. Specifically, these three sales produced 60 stakes winners from 1,665 foals (3.60%, not bad). Those 60 stakes winners averaged only 357 Performance Points each. So these three sales did a good job of producing stakes winners, but they were pretty cheap stakes winners overall. The PPI ratings above are based on those benchmarks, which were considerably lower than the benchmarks for the 2010 Keeneland September sale.

As with the 2010 Keeneland September sale, the not rated group was best overall at 1.96. It was followed by D at 1.09, A at 1.03, C at 0.99, and B at 0.54.

The chart below compares prices with results.

Nick Rating          Price Index          PPI (Result)

A                                  0.99                     1.03

B                                  1.01                      0.54

C                                  0.99                     0.99

D                                 1.03                      1.09

Not Rated                  0.96                      1.96

C was right on the money (0.99 for both prices and results). A and D had slightly better results than prices (1.03 to 0.99 and 1.09 to 1.03, respectively). Considering that all these numbers clustered around 1.00, they are probably pretty close to correct.

B was by far the worst group (price of 1.01 and result of 0.54). Not rated was by far the best group (price of 0.96 and result of 1.96). You might want to take these two pairs of results with a grain of salt apiece. Indeed, the racetrack results might have been just as random as the prices were random.

But overall, A nicks did fare better at these three Ocala sales than they did at the 2010 Keeneland September sale. A price of 0.99 and a result of 1.03 (Ocala) is better than a price of 1.12 and a result of 0.94 (Keeneland). But 1.03 is a very small improvement over 0.99.

One reason I would take the not rated result for Ocala with a grain of salt is because Egg Drop (1,534 Performance Points) accounted for 66% of the total (2,324) for the four stakes winners in that group.

On the other hand, Egg Drop was by far the best of the 60 stakes winners listed above. And it is easy to see why she was not rated. She was by Alphabet Soup (by Cozzene, by Caro) out of a mare by Adhocracy (by Spend a Buck, by Buckaroo, by Buckpasser). Both her sire line and broodmare sire line were far off the Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector beaten path of conformity.

The next-best stakes winner among the 60 listed above was Master Rick (1,147). He was a D nick and the only other stakes winner above 1,000. So the best two stakes winners of the 60 listed above were Egg Drop (not rated and the only G1 winner among the 60) and Master Rick (a D nick). And the next best after that was Istanford (a C nick rated at 985).

A Nicks fared better at these three Ocala sales than they did at the 2010 Keeneland September sale, but they are far from convincing as the best deals overall.

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2 Responses to Far From Convincing

  1. lesleybowen says:

    I bet Master Rick ‘s D Nick has been adjusted upwards. What say you?

    Sent from my iPhone


    • ddink55 says:

      Just tried to check their website. Master Command is no longer on their list of stallions. So I don’t know, but it is very likely. Six of the 11 not-rated stakes winners from Kee 2010 were now rated (five As and one B).

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