So Much for DOGMA Once Again

OK, this will be the third time I have examined the Rasmussen Factor (RF, inbreeding to females) using sales populations. I am going to use the same excuse for repeating myself as I did for age of mares. “You can never step into the same river twice. . . . ” The sample group is different, and therefore the results could conceivably be different this time around.

Listed below are the 83 stakes winners among sales foals of 2008-2011 who are inbred to females. Listed for each is its name, pedigree (sire–dam), description of the inbreeding, price, and number of Performance Points earned. The stakes winners are listed by years sold, then alphabetically by sire (pretty much the order in which I found them). Discussion resumes at the conclusion of these lists.

RF Qualifiers Sold in 2008–Stakes Winners

Awesome Act (Awesome Again—Houdini’s Honey), 5×4 Natalma, 08Y240,000, 501 Performance Points.

Bingo (Bernstein—Isabeau), 5×5 Exclusive, 08W10,000, 320.

Decelerator (Dehere—Paris Rose), 4×4 Somethingroyal, 08Y35,000, 767.

Chuchuloco (Devon Lane—Lady in Danger), 5×5 Somethingroyal, 08Y58,000, 970.

Al Muhtasib (Distorted Humor—A. P. Interest), 5×5 Sequence, 08Y520,000, 351.

Sirocco Strike (Forestry—Wishful Splendor), 5×5 Sequence, 08Y245,000, 333.

Soundwave (Friends Lake—Echo Echo Echo), 5×5 Somethingroyal, 08W75,000, 277.

Explosive Mine (Ghostly Moves—Explosive Peaches), 4×5 Gold Digger, 08Y27,000, 270.

Citrus Kid (Lemon Drop Kid—Orange Ice), 5×4 Missy Baba, 08Y70,000, 411.

House of Grace (Limehouse—Gracility), 5×3 Tamerett, 08Y100,000, 328.

Bella Medaglia (Medaglia d’Oro—Ten’s Testamony), 4×5 Cap and Bells, 08Y100,000, 556.

Marie de Medici (Medicean—Mare Nostrum), 5x5x5 Natalma, 08Y340,000, 204.

Jardin (Montbrook—Unlimited Pleasure), 4×4 Old Bess, 08T425,000, 369.

Izzy Rules (Peace Rules—Da Dance), 5x5x5 Natalma, 08Y6,500, 558.

Court of the Realm (Powerscourt—Grand Fan), 4×4 Special, 08Y5,500, 665.

Twist of Silver (Silver Train—Twist of Faith), 5×4 My Charmer, 08W30,000, 359.

Storming Saint (Sweetsouthernsaint—Tomisue’s Storm), 5×5 Almahmoud, 08Y1,000, 216.

Ilusora (Tale of the Cat—If Angels Sang), 3×3 Terlingua, 08Y120,000, 400.

Touching Beauty (Tapit—Victory Road), 5×5 Killaloe, 08Y35,000, 383.

Queen of the Creek (Theatrical–Misma), 5×5 Rough Shod II, 08Y140,000, 268.

Tidal Pool (Yankee Gentleman—Sea Rhythm), 4×4 Bad Seed, 08Y120,000, 495.

Southern Yankee (Yankee Gentleman—Wanna Kat), 4×4 Crimson Saint, 08T10,000, 542.

RF Qualifiers Sold in 2009–Stakes Winners

Thunder Moccasin (A. P. Warrior—One Stormy Mama), 5×4 South Ocean, 09W35,000, 414.

Bear’s Chill (Artie Schiller—Silver Nithi), 5×4 Special, 09Y78,914, 563.

Position Limit (Bellamy Road—Payable On Demand), 5×3 Arabian Dancer, 09Y55,000, 420.

Thyskens’ Theory (Bernardini—Heat Lightning), 3×3 Weekend Surprise, 09Y250,000, 596.

Su Casa G Casa (During—Seda Fina), 5×3 Tamerett, 09Y10,000, 1,073.

Channel Lady (English Channel—Queen Supreme), 5×5 Special, 09W25,000, 844.

La Glamorosa (Fire Slam—Dana’s Lucky Lady), 5×5 Real Crafty Lady, 09Y6,500, 380.

Just Louise (First Samurai—Kings Lynn), 5×4 Sister Shannon, 09Y75,000, 298.

Flashy American (Flashy Bull—Inn Between), 5×5 Aspidistra, 09W5,000, 1,152.

Camp Victory (Forest Camp—Victory Trick), 5×5 Victoriana, 09T90,000, 1,188.

Sensational Slam (Grand Slam—Roman Romance), 4×5 Sex Appeal, 4×5 Tamerett, 09Y80,000, 954.

Hot Summer (Malibu Moon—Summer Delight), 3×4 Weekend Surprise, 09Y180,000, 699.

Sweet as You Are (Mecke—Nash’s Prospect), 09T55,000, 3×4 Biddy Big, 425.

Perfect Curls (Perfect Mandate—Curves ‘n Curls), 5×4 Somethingroyal, 09Y9,500, 319.

Rules R Rules (Peace Rules—Misty Mountains), 5×5 Natalma, 09T7,500, 175.

Boomtown Brat (Salt Lake—Lazy Days), 4×5 Victoria Regina, 09Y25,844, 403.

May Be Now (Smart Strike—Dans La Ville), 5×4 Quillopoly, 09Y60,000, 300.

Quick Flip (Speightstown—Motel Lass), 5×5 Somethingroyal, 09W170,000, 197.

Splash Point (Street Cry–Dianehill), 5x5x5 Natalma, 09Y300,000, 371.

Zaidan (Street Cry—Element of Truth), 5×5 Natalma, 09Y200,000, 248.

Tale of a Champion (Tale of a Cat—If Angels Sang), 3×3 Terlingua, 09Y62,000, 670.

Sunny Desert (Wild Desert—Hoping for Sun), 5×5 Shenanigans, 09W2,000, 1,054.

RF Qualifiers Sold in 2010–Stakes Winners

Dorsett (Artie Schiller–Dontgetinmyway), 5×5 Natalma, 10W4,000, 362.

Karma Police (Consolidator—Putbacktheglider), 5×5 Somethingroyal, 10Y1,700, 275.

Dr John’s (Consolidator–Well At the Top), 5×5 Somethingroyal, 10Y5,000, 203.

Dancing Anna (Cuvee–Mesabu), 4×4 Gold Digger, 10Y12,500, 241.

Ultimate Destiny (Dance to Destiny—One On Tap), 4×4 No Class, 10Y15,451, 1,004.

Devious Intent (Dixie Union–Hafifah), 4x5x5 Natalma, 10Y45,000, 579.

Grace Hall (Empire Maker—Season’s Greetings), 4×5 Sex Appeal, 10Y95,000, 2,946.

Blue Heart (Exchange Rate—Flawless Diamond), 5×5 Almahmoud, 10Y375,000, 787.

Northern Passion (First Samurai—A Touch of Glory), 5×5 Killaloe, 10Y95,000, 1,148.

Doe (Forestry—Spin Control), 5×5 Sequence, 10Y3,500, 417.

Crafty Unicorn (Friends Lake—Unicorn Kid), 4×4 Lassie Dear, 10Y10,000, 187.

Private Zone (Macho Uno—Auburn Beauty), 5×5 Gold Digger, 10Y15,000, 1,775.

Blueeyesintherein (Magna Graduate—Tartufi), 5×5 Broadway, 10W15,000, 509.

Best Warrior (Majestic Warrior—Flirtatious Miss), 5×5 Broadway, 10W47,000, 917.

More Than Love (More Than Ready—I’m in Love), 5×5 Intriguing, 10Y130,000, 328.

Left a Message (Mr. Greeley—Chief Secretary), 4×5 Broadway, 10Y240,000, 314.

Osi Posse (Osidy—Let Joy Reign), 4×4 My Charmer, 10Y2,500, 267.

Grace Phil (Philanthropist—Loupe de Grace), 4×5 Gold Digger, 10Y10,622, 564.

Ize in Trouble (Proud Citizen—Battle Hymn), 5×4 Natalma, 10Y3,000, 234.

Our Entourage (Street Cry—Sand Springs), 5×5 Natalma, 10Y350,000, 309.

Tapajo (Tapit—Sleep Away Camp), 5×5 Foggy Note, 10Y65,000, 324.

RF Qualifiers Sold in 2011–Stakes Winners

Big Macher (Beau Genius–Insight), 4×5 Victoria Regina, 11Y10,000, 1,297.

Devons Ca Ching (Devon Lane—New Focus), 5×5 Somethingroyal, 11Y2,700, 556.

Overanalyze (Dixie Union–Unacloud), 5x5x5 Gold Digger, 11Y380,000, 2,046.

Avie’s Quality (Elusive Quality—Fly for Avie), 5×5 Somethingroyal, 11Y35,000, 254.

Silver Tongued (Flatter–Whitelacenpromises), 3×4 Weekend Surprise, 11Y17,000, 471.

Hakeem (Harlan’s Holiday—Michigan Bluff), 5×5 Alanesian, 11W35,000, 400.

Jubliant Girl (Henrythenavigator—Gamely Girl), 5x5x4 Special, 11Y270,000, 207.

Proud Azteca (Kitten’s Joy—Proud Mover), 5×5 Special, 11W17,000, 341.

Valid (Medaglia d’Oro—Grand Prayer), 5×4 Prayer Bell, 11Y500,000, 664.

Mail (Medaglia d’Oro—Tap Dance), 5×4 Prayer Bell, 11Y470,000, 251.

Lideris (Mizzen Mast–Block), 4×5 Flower Bowl, 11Y36,000, 710.

Eden Prairie (Mizzen Mast—Clerico), 4×5 Flower Bowl, 11Y50,000, 493.

Tasty Treat (Roar—Vividora), 5×5 Flower Bowl, 11T30,000, 436.

Let Em Shine (Songandaprayer–Justaspell), 4×4 Lucky Spell, 11Y10,000, 238.

Free World (Stormy Atlantic–Welcometotheworld), 5×4 Natalma, 11Y35,000, 509.

Private Tutor (Student Council—Senorita Swinger), 5×5 Special, 11Y7,000, 222.

Weemissfrankie (Sunriver—Starinthemeadow), 5×5 Nothirdchance, 11T175,000, 1,360.

My Happy Face (Tiz Wonderful—Summer Star), 5×5 Gold Digger, 11Y35,000, 881.

The best of these stakes winners were Grace Hall (2,946), Overanalyze (2,046), and Private Zone (1,775).

If these 83 stakes winners came from only 1,000 foals, that would be an excellent result. If these 83 stakes winners came from only 2,000 foals, that would be a good result. The only problem is that these 83 stakes winners came from 2,803 foals, which is not a good result.

Of the total 45,562 sales foals of 2008-2111, 2,803 qualified as RF. That is 6.15%. Incidentally, the last two times I did this study, with sales foals of 1999-2002 and sales foals of 2003-2007, the incidence of RF qualifiers was slightly over 7% in both cases.

In the first two studies the names duplicated most often were Almahmoud and Somethingroyal. Those two names have declined in popularity over time, which is one reason why the overall incidence of RF qualifiers has gone down. It seems to me that the one broodmare who has gained most in popularity over time is Special. I would not be surprised if Special has supplanted both Almahmoud and Somethingroyal as the name most often duplicated.

To review, all 45,562 sales foals of 2008-2111 sold for an average of $46,418 and a maverage of 154. These 2,803 RF qualifiers sold for an average of $51,642 and a maverage of 161.79, higher on both scores. That works out to a Price Index for the 2,803 RF qualifiers of 1.05.

To review, there were 1,426 stakes winners among all 45,562 sales foals of 2008-2111. That is 3.13%. There were 83 stakes winners among the 2,803 RF qualifiers. That is 2.96%. So the RF qualifiers produced a lower ratio of stakes winners from foals than did the overall population.

The 1,426 overall stakes winners averaged 647 Performance Points apiece. The 83 RF stakes winners averaged only 570 Performance Points apiece. So the 83 RF stakes winners were not particularly good stakes winners compared to the overall population of stakes winners.

Taking both quantity and quality into account, the 2,803 RF qualifiers had a PPI (result) of 0.83. That is a pathetic result compared to its Price Index of 1.05. They sold for prices about 5% ABOVE average and produced results about 17% BELOW average.

This result is similar to the previous two results. In all three cases the RF qualifiers sold for prices ABOVE average and produced results BELOW average. The 2008-2011 results are by far the worst of the three.

In coming weeks I will be listing all RF qualifiers sold in 2008-2111. I do so just to assure you that I am NOT making up these numbers. Also so that you may explore more on your own if you feel so inclined. If you want to see how Almahmoud, Somethingroyal, Special, or some other female fared, you can go through the lists and find out on your own. Good luck.

At one point in time no one questioned the Rasmussen Factor at all. It was considered DOGMA that RF produced good results.

That was because no one had ever bothered to TEST large populations for the true efficacy of RF. Once tested, it turns out that the RF is NOT a good prescription for breeding a better horse at all. If anything, quite the opposite.

So much for DOGMA once again.

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2 Responses to So Much for DOGMA Once Again

  1. ned williams says:

    Once again you have confirmed the brutal truth, there are no real shortcuts. The northwest passage does not exist! My guess is that almost everyone who reads this blog is intensely interested in trying to breed a better racehorse. That is certainly my goal. However, you keep us all in check. By doing the cold calculations, you help us to avoid paths that lead to nowhere. Let me be the first to say that I wish there were an easier way!!! However, I am grateful for the work you do to help your readers better understand the unfortunate and inconvenient truth. Better to know the hard truth, than to stumble blindly and happily along a path to nowhere.

    • ddink55 says:

      Thank you, Ned.

      Northwest Passage is a good analogy. Alchemy is even better. Almost all breeding theories promise to transmute base metals (pedigrees that are mediocre or worse) into gold (graded stakes winners). Of course none of them actually do that. At least not with any consistency.

      Yes, the truth frequently is brutal. That is why it is so UNPOPULAR. Most people would rather believe in fairy tales than deal with the truth.

      Boojum

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