Racing Class of Dams–Prices

I have been a bit reticent about posting on this blog for the past two months. I have not posted anything of significance in about two months (since shortly after the Breeders’ Cup).

That was not because I was reluctant to post anything. If I had anything to post, I would have done so. But I was simply busy doing my usual thing, mining data and crunching numbers. Now that I have a fair amount of data mined and numbers crunched, I should have several posts over the next few weeks.

The new year is obviously a good time to begin again. And racing class of dams is always a good topic, especially since it has been a long time (five years or more?) since I last visited it. So listed below are the prices for all sales foals of 2008-2111, ranging from the highest class (G1 winners) to the lowest class (unplaced).

Before beginning I should note that the classifications below are based on black-type rules. Stakes winner means black-type winner. Winnings and/or placings in [N] races were ignored.

Racing Class of Dam      Foals           Average          Maverage          Price Index

G1 Winners                        406            $218,251          371.88                    2.41

G2 Winners                        444            $133,156          303.09                   1.97

G3 Winners                        762             $112,595         263.06                    1.71

All Other SWs                 5,047             $65,944          197.48                    1.28

Graded Stakes Placed      920              $91,750          243.31                    1.58

All Other SP                    4,312              $41,871           153.79                    1.00

Winners                          16,704             $34,717           132.36                   0.86

Unraced                           8,675              $43,294          144.97                   0.94

Placed                              3,802              $40,322          142.24                   0.92

Unplaced                         4,490              $38,925          141.99                   0.92

Totals                             45,562              $46,418          154.00                   1.00

With three exceptions, the prices above all worked out pretty much as expected. The higher the racing class, the higher the price.

The first result (exception) that surprised me is that graded stakes placed was so much higher ($91,750 to $65,944 by average and 243.31 to 197.48 by maverage) than all other stakes winners (nongraded stakes winners). I tend to think that any stakes winner is better than any stakes-placed nag, but the markets obviously disagreed, placing much more value on graded stakes placed than on nongraded stakes winners. Perhaps rightfully so.

The second result (exception) that surprised me is that all other (nongraded) stakes placed was so low. Its average of $41,871 was well below the overall average for all 45,5622 foals of $46,418. It was even below the average for all unraced mares ($43,294).

The maverages tell a slightly different story (as they usually do). The maverage for all other (nongraded) stakes placed was 153.79, just a hair below the overall maverage of 154.00 but well above the maverage for all unraced mares of 144.97. As usual, the maverages probably paint a more accurate picture than the averages.

The third result (exception) that surprised me is that winners were the lowest classification of all. Its average of $34,717 was below unraced ($43,294), placed ($40,322), and unplaced ($38,925). Its maverage of 132.36 was below unraced (144.97), placed (142.24), and unplaced (141.99).

It is not surprising that the prices for these four categories were grouped so closely together. These are the only four categories that are not black type. And if a mare is not black type, the market tends to treat them all equally, ignoring whatever gradations of racing class might actually exist. I will return to this theme later in a separate post.

Finally I combined these results into five more general groups: graded stakes winners, all stakes winners, all stakes placed, all black type, and all others (not black type).

Racing Class of Dam   Foals                 Average       Maverage          Price Index

Graded SWs                  1,612                 $144,869        301.49                   1.96

All SWs                          6,659                 $85,050         222.66                   1.45

All SP                              5,232                 $50,641          169.53                   1.10

All Black Type             11,891                  $69,910          199.28                   1.29

All Others                    33,671                  $38,121           138.01                   0.90

No surprises here. Actually, I was a little bit surprised that all black type (11,891) represented more than 26% of the total (45,562). I would have guessed 20% or even lower.

This might help explain the low prices for all other (nongraded) stakes placed. It is all a matter of supply and demand. There was a plentiful supply of mares with the cheapest black type. Therefore, demand for their progeny was not very high. And truthfully, having finished third in a restricted stakes (even if it was black type) is not necessarily a good indicator of high racing class.

In my next post I will show racetrack results for these same categories and see how they stacked up against their prices.

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