“Gates of Eden”

OK, I have posted the 34 stakes winners tracing to La Troienne (LT) in the female line from among sales foals of 2008-2111. I have posted all other foals tracing to LT in the female line from among sales foals of 2008-2111. Now is time to get down to the nitty-gritty.

If those 34 stakes winners were produced from 500 foals, that would be an excellent result. If those 34 stakes winners were produced from 1,000 foals, that would be a good result.

In fact these 34 stakes winners were produced from 1,108 foals. The prices for those 1,108 foals are listed below, compared to the prices for the 1,738 foals tracing to LT in the female line from among sales foals of 2003-2007 (see earlier post).

Sales Foals of                Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

2008-2111                      1,108           $66,667            177.43                   1.15

2003-2007                     1,738          $65,754            175.88                   1.08

The total number of foals tracing to LT in the female line declined from 1,738 in 2003-2007 to 1,108 in 2008-2111. That does not mean that the prevalence of LT has declined precipitously.

Those 1,738 foals were 2.46% of the total of 70,714 foals in 2003-2007 (five years). Those 1,108 foals were 2.43% of the total of 45,562 foals in 2008-2111 (four years). So the prevalence of LT in the female line declined very slightly, not precipitously.

The average price for all foals in the LT female line increased slightly from $65,574 in 2003-2007 to $66,667 in 2008-2111. The maverage also increased slightly from 175.88 to 177.43.

The overall average for all 70,714 foals in 2003-2007 decreased from $54,140 to $46,418 for all 45,562 foals in 2008-2111. The maverage decreased similarly from 163.11 to 154.0. So the Price Index increased from 1.08 in 2003-2007 to 1.15 in 2008-2111. The 1,738 foals of 2003-2007 sold for prices about 8% above average. The 1,108 foals of 2008-2111 sold for prices about 15% above average. So the LT female line increased from 2003-2007 to 2008-2111 in terms of popularity (prices paid).

Now let us examine the results for the LT female line in 2008-2111. APPPSW in the chart below stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved (661 being average).

Foals          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

1,108                     34                     3.07            669                     0.96

The overall percentage of stakes winners from foals in 2008-2011 was 3.24% (1,476 of 45,562). The LT female line was below that at 3.07% (34 of 1,108). The LT female line did have 669 APPPSW, slightly better than the overall average of 661.

Taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 1,108 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.96. That does not compare well with their Price Index of 1.15. They sold for prices about 15% ABOVE average and achieved results about 4% BELOW average. They distinctly underperformed.

Now let us compares prices and results for 2003-2007 versus the same for 2008-2111.

Sales Foals of          Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)

2003-2007               1,738                1.08                     0.92

2008-2111                 1,108                 1.15                     0.96

The LT female line did increase its PPI (results) from 0.92 on 2003-2007 to 0.96 in 2008-2111. Its prices increased even more sharply though, from 1.08 to 1.15. Therefore, the gap between the two (amount of underperformance) increased from 0.16 to 0.19. The LT female line performed even worse relative to its prices in 2008-2111 than in 2003-2007.

It should not come as any surprise to any rational person that LT is actually below average. After all, she was a foal of 1926.

You might be wondering why I confined myself to the female line in evaluating LT. The main reason is that I knew from previous research that LT has her BEST results in the female line and her worse results in all the other possible places in pedigrees. See La Troienne (“Talking World War III Blues”).

So I was giving her the benefit of the doubt by concentrating on the places in pedigrees in which she had had the BEST results in the past. LT appears in many more places in pedigrees than just the female line. Anyone want to wager that she has good results in these other places????

Also bear in mind that the worship of “Saint” LT is strictly a play on names in pedigrees alone (has nothing to do with the racing and/or producing class of the sires and dams involved). This is what happens when you place pedigree above racing/producing class. This is what happens when you concentrate on one name in pedigrees and attempt to canonize her. You pay above-average prices for below-average results.

I do not think that this obsession with LT developed naturally. Rational people did not look at the evidence and all come to the same conclusion independently, that LT is somehow “magic.”

No, what happened is that many so-called pedigree “experts” wrote a lot of drivel (to put it charitably) about LT. Many people read that drivel. An “expert” said it was so. Therefore, it must be true (and no one was producing any evidence to the contrary). So it came to be accepted as dogma that the name LT is “magic” in pedigrees.

We live in a world full of propaganda. LT is an excellent example of the power of propaganda.

But dogma and propaganda are both still bullshit. At least this particular dogma and propaganda, if not all others. There are no saints outside the “Gates of Eden.”

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4 Responses to “Gates of Eden”

  1. nepetalactone says:

    You don’t know how little you know about anything until you look at the NUMBERS.

  2. ddink55 says:

    True. And unfortunately too many people do not seem to understand numbers at all.

    Boojum

  3. Allison Roulston says:

    I had to smile. While you were developing this study over on the pedigreequerry.com message board the following exchange occurred on a thread titled “Courtly Dee”.

    Des posted: “This is the GREATEST BLOODLINES IN RACING to me….I try to follow all their offsprings..”

    To which da hossman replied: “Des, you should check out a mare named LA TROIENNE.”

    And the beat goes on!

  4. ddink55 says:

    I am currently working on some other female lines, and one of them is COURTLY DEE. Hope that will make you smile as well.

    Boojum

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