Most Unlikely Places

Three posts ago I demonstrated that the female line of La Troienne (LT) is vastly overrated. Two posts ago I demonstrated that the female lines of Almahmoud, Best in Show, Bourtai, Courtly Dee, Grey Flight, Knight’s Daughter, Missy Baba, and Rough Shod II are collectively overrated.

Today I present some statistics on 28 other popular female lines. In choosing which female lines to study I tried to select those which had the best chance of selling for high prices and/or producing good results. For this group I placed a little more emphasis on female lines with lots of foals. And also those about whom I was frankly curious.

Originally I set out to study almost 50 female lines, but I narrowed them down to the 28 below who had at least 100 foals each among sales foals of 2008-2111. Among the female lines eliminated because they did not produce at least 100 foals were Aspidistra, Courtesy, Ghazni, Happy Mood, Iltis, Kerala, Lady Pitt, Monade, Natasha, Native Partner, Old Bess, Pat’s Irish, Prayer Bell, Quillopoly, Quite Honestly, Romanita, Scotch Verdict, South Ocean, Stick to Beauty, and T. C. Kitten.

Betty Derr is the third dam of Courtly Dee (already studied). The 166 foals I list below under Betty Derr do NOT include any Courtly Dee. They include everything else NOT through Courtly Dee. They are the same female line, but I treated them separately because I suspected that they might have very different results.

The same is true of the mother-daughter combinations Escutcheon-Bourtai (already studied) and Good Example-Exclusive. Escutcheon below does NOT include any Bourtai. It includes everything else that is NOT Bourtai. Good Example below does NOT include any Exclusive. It includes everything else that is NOT Exclusive. They are the same female lines, but I treated them separately because I suspected that they might have very different results.

For each mare below I have listed her number of foals, average price, maverage, and Price Index. They are listed by descending order of maverage (most expensive ones first).

Usually I do a separate table to show racetrack results. Today I am skipping a few steps and showing PPI (result) right next to Price Index. That way you can see at a glance which female lines outperformed their prices and which underperformed their prices. For example, Bold Irish has a Price Index of 1.44 and a PPI (result) of 1.50, a very slightly positive result relative to her prices. Discussion resumes at the end of the table below.

Mare                    Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index      PPI (Result)

Bold Irish               111           $94,385             221.26                   1.44                   1.50

Lady Be Good        133           $92,852            220.56                    1.43                   1.78

Queen Nasra         102          $64,864           202.57                    1.32                    1.32

Nangela                  153          $75,171            200.92                    1.30                    1.19

Self Control           160         $68,979            198.03                    1.29                    0.46

Ole Liz                    103         $67,932            197.83                     1.28                    0.52

Patelin                    139         $65,596            196.32                     1.27                    3.82

Golden Trail          169         $69,121             195.84                     1.27                    1.58

Real Delight          184         $62,447            194.04                     1.26                    0.73

Nato II                   145          $66,167            191.92                      1.25                    1.38

Miss Carmie         118          $59,284           191.92                       1.25                   0.84

Nellie Flag            140         $64,219             184.79                      1.20                   1.18

Pandora                122         $61,276             181.16                       1.18                    3.13

Lea Lark               308        $58,774             179.17                        1.16                    1.90

Rare Perfume      113         $50,766             173.15                        1.12                    0.26

Soaring                 199         $56,762            172.88                        1.12                    0.92

Exclusive              143         $48,133            171.67                         1.11                     1.18

Legendra              175         $78,429            162.15                        1.05                     0.87

Albany Isle           113         $49,758            162.07                        1.05                     2.56

Beaver Street       143         $49,447            161.13                         1.05                     1.23

Betty Derr            166         $48,427            158.40                        1.03                     0.73

Alablue                 166         $45,023            154.13                         1.00                     2.85

Boudoir II            223         $44,449            150.32                       0.98                     0.37

Portage                 231         $41,840            147.20                        0.96                     0.94

Escutcheon         198          $40,961            146.89                        0.95                     0.98

Bloodroot            173          $35,946 2         141.28                        0.92                      1.03

Imperatrice         123         $36,381             136.02                       0.88                      0.69

Good Example    115          $33,089            130.30                       0.85                      4.39

Of the 28 female lines listed, 22 have Price Indexes of 1.00 (average) or higher. Six have Price Indexes below 1.00 (Boudoir II, Portage, Escutcheon, Bloodroot, Imperatrice, and Good Example). Those six names are not exactly unknowns in pedigree circles.

Twelve of the 28 have PPIs (results) below 1.00. Sixteen have PPIs (results) above 1.00.

Fourteen of the 28 have higher PPIs than Price Indexes (the desired result). Thirteen have PPIs lower than their Price Indexes (the undesired result). Queen Nasra was 1.32 on both scores.

I do not wish to belabor these individual results too much. I am more interested in the collective results for all 28 female lines. Their collective prices are listed below.

Female Lines                    Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Alablue . . . Soaring         4,368         $57,339             173.99                    1.13

The average for these 4,368 foals ($57,339) is well above the overall average of $46,418). Ditto for the maverage (173.99, compared to 154.0). Their Price Index of 1.13 is slightly below that of La Troienne (1.15) and of the ABBCGKMR group (1.25).

Below are the collective results for these 4,368 foals. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner (665 now being average).

Female Lines                     Foals          SWs          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Alablue . . . Soaring          4,368          144         3.30            911                      1.39

So these 4,368 foals have a Price Index of 1.13 and a PPI (result) of 1.39. They sold for prices about 13% above average and achieved results about 39% above average. That is an excellent result. Let us compare it to the previous two groups studied.

Female Lines                    Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)

La Troienne                       1,108                 1.15                       0.96

ABBCGKMR                      1,400                1.25                       1.06

Alablue . . . Soaring          4,368                1.13                        1.39

To recapitulate, the previous two groups had results well below their prices (LT price of 1,15 and result of 0.96; ABBCGKMR price of 1.25 and result of 1.06). These 28 mares did exactly the opposite (price of 1.13 and result of 1.39). These 28 mares kicked the shit out of LT and ABBCGKMR.

It is important to understand WHY these 28 mares achieved such good results. Their 3.30% stakes winners from foals is barely above average (now 3.25%). Their APPPSW of 911 was 37% above the overall average of 665. So their excellent results are attributable not to the quantity of their stakes winners, but to their quality. They hit quite a few home runs.

Fourteen of their 144 stakes winners had 2,000+ Performance Points, and they are listed below in descending order (best ones first).

Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike–Private Feeling, Belong to Me), 6th dam Pandora, 09T475,000, 6,207 Performance Points.

Beholder (Henny Hughes–Leslie’s Lady, Tricky Creek), 5th dam Patelin, 11Y180,000, 6,068.

Secret Circle (Eddington–Ragtime Hope, Dixieland Band), 6th dam Lea Lark, 11T165,000, 5,171.

I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley–Arch’s Gal Edith, Arch), 5th dam Patelin, 10Y11,000, 4,194.

To Honor and Serve (Bernardini–Pilfer, Deputy Minister), 5th dam Golden Trail, 08W250,000, 3,699.

Musical Romance (Concorde’s Tune–Candlelight Dinner, Slew Gin Fizz), 7th dam Good Example, 09T22,000, 3,582.

Turbulent Descent (Congrats–Roger’s Sue, Forestry), 6th dam Nangela, 10T160,000, 3,312.

Grace Hall (Empire Maker–Season’s Greetings, Ezzoud), 7th dam Nellie Flag, 10Y95,000, 2,946.

Evening Jewel (Northern Afleet–Jewel of the Night, Giant’s Causeway), 8th dam Lea Lark, 08Y8,000, 2,821.

Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor–Kelli’s Ransom, Red Ransom), 6th dam Alablue, 8T675,000, 2,495.

Lady of Shamrock (Scat Daddy–Blushing Issue, Blushing John), 5th dam Legendra, 10Y80,000, 2,450.

Twilight Eclipse (Purim–My Twilight Dancer, Twilight Agenda), 5th dam Alablue, 10Y1,000, 2,448.

Dance to Bristol (Speightstown–Dance to Dawn, Louis Quatorze), 4th dam Exclusive, 11T42,000, 2,281.

Devil May Care (Malibu Moon–Kelli’s Ransom, Red Ransom), 6th dam Alablue, 08Y110,000, 2,224.

Alablue had three of these 14 stakes winners (Twilight Eclipse, Regal Ransom, and Devil May Care, the latter two out of the same mare). Those three contributed heavily to Alablue’s PPI of 2.85.

Patelin had two of these 14 stakes winners (champions Beholder and I’ll Have Another, both with Last Bird as their fourth dam and Patelin as their fifth dam). Those two contributed heavily to Patelin’s PPI of 3.82.

Lea Lark had two of these 14 stakes winners (Secret Circle and Evening Jewel). Those two contributed heavily to Lea Lark’s PPI of 1.90.

With an average of only $33,089 and maverage of only 130.30 (Price Index of 0.85), Good Example was the cheapest of these 28 mares. She also had the highest PPI (4.39). Musical Romance (3,582 Performance Points) contributed to this result. But even without Musical Romance, Good Example still has a PPI of 2.95. Not just a one-hit wonder.

Frankly, I do not know what to make of these results. If some female lines do produce superior results, I suspect it is because of quality of stakes winners, not quantity. They hit a lot more home runs than they should.

If some female lines do produce superior results, you will not find them in the most obvious places (La Troienne, etc.). You might find them in the most unlikely places (Good Example, etc.). If you find them at all, you will have to spend a lot of time “Dark as a Dungeon” in order to do so.

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2 Responses to Most Unlikely Places

  1. nepetalactone says:

    Assuming that in the beginning, these female lines were indeed superior, and worth the time and trouble to breed carefully, what about other female lines? Did you look at any for fun to try to find some that were so dreadful that they were hardly worth feeding, either by stunning slowness or fragility?

  2. ddink55 says:

    I am not sure what your point is. Perhaps it is that almost all female families have something going for them, though you may have to go a long way back to find it. Concomitantly, finding a female line that is totally worthless is nigh impossible (because if it were indeed totally worthless, it would never have survived to the present).

    “What have you done for me lately?” is the important point to keep in mind when dealing with these female lines. “What have you done for me lately?” is the best clue available from female lines as to the future prospects (positive or negative) of the foal in question, and the foal in question is the whole point of the exercise.

    Boojum

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