Storm Cat Male Line, Kentucky Derby (continued)

If you have followed this blog from the beginning, you know that I usually post something about the Storm Cat male line in the Kentucky Derby shortly after the race each year. Here is how his male line fared in yesterday’s race.

Only two of the 18 starters in yesterday’s Kentucky Derby hailed from the Storm Cat male line (down from six of 19 last year). Firing Line finished second at 9-1. Carpe Diem finished tenth at 7-1. Firing Line is by Line of David, by Lion Heart, by Tale of the Cat, by Storm Cat. Carpe Diem is by Giant’s Causeway, by Storm Cat.

So the Storm Cat male line did not fare too badly yesterday. Overall though, its record in the Kentucky Derby now stands at 46 starts, ZERO wins, four seconds, and two thirds. Needless to say, that is NOT a particularly good record.

Last year’s post on this subject matter is hereby linked.

Storm Cat was by Storm Bird, by Northern Dancer. The Northern Dancer male line has not fared well at all in the Kentucky Derby in recent years. Since 2000 it has been represented by only one Kentucky Derby winner, Big Brown (sire of Dortmund, who finished third yesterday at 4-1) in 2008. I don’t know how many starters the Northern Dancer male line had in this time period, but it was more than a few.

American Pharoah is out of a mare by Yankee Gentleman, by Storm Cat. That is the broodmare sire line, NOT the male line. Storm Cat himself is renowned as a pretty decent broodmare sire. I would not be surprised if he fares pretty well in the broodmare sire line, perhaps even better than in the male line, where he is overrated, in my humble opinion. Perhaps that might be a topic for further research and discussion, Storm Cat in the broodmare sire line.

Dosage is pretty much a dead horse, but in all good conscience I am going to beat it with a stick one more time. American Pharoah has a dosage index (DI) of 4.33. Supposedly that means he is not genetically equipped to win the Kentucky Derby.

American Pharoah (like all horses) has 30 ancestors in his first four generations. His DI of 4.33 is based on only three of those 30 ancestors, Unbridled in the third generation and Fappiano and Exclusive Native in the fourth generation. How ridiculous is that????????

But wait, it gets even better. Mubtaahij has a DI of 1.00 and a CD (center of distribution) of 0.00. Those are the “ideal” dosage numbers and supposedly mean that Mubtaahij was eminently qualified to win the race yesterday. He finished eighth at 14-1.

Mubtaahij’s dosage numbers are based on only two of his 30 ancestors within four generations (Mr. Prospector and Shirley Heights, both in the fourth generation, both in his sire’s half of the pedigree). How ridiculous is that????????

I suppose that is the beauty of writing about pedigrees. Ridiculous theories abound. Poking fun at them is almost too easy. Sort of like taking candy from a baby.

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3 Responses to Storm Cat Male Line, Kentucky Derby (continued)

  1. Darran Thompson says:

    Enjoy your blog, I don’t know what you have is the issue you have with Doc Roman or do you just enjoy sticking a spur in him. I’ve been a student of pedigrees since the 1980s and have used different tools to analyze them. Dosage for me gives me a quickie wait to look at a pedigree but by no means is the be all end all.
    You also Poopoo the Rasmuson factor and Bruce Lowe
    Not sure how you fill about nicking or biomechanics but I’m sure you will shot holes in them which is fine just think you should give Credit to the people who’s shoulders you stand on
    Keep riding and I’ll keep reading

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