Edward P. Evans and Virginia

In my last post I demonstrated that Virginia-breds were more expensive and posted better results than Kentucky-breds (both from a sample of sales foals of 2008-2111).

One reaction I had to that was, “Yeah, but now that Evans is dead, Virginia has probably gone straight down the tubes.”

The late Edward P. Evans was indeed a powerful force, easily the leading breeder of Thoroughbreds in Virginia. Evans died in 2010, and his Thoroughbred holdings were dispersed in 2011.

The question was posed to me: How did Virginia-breds fare without the sales foals bred by Evans? I decided to tackle this question.

The Evans dispersal in 2011 sold 106 weanlings, yearlings, and two-year-olds (all included among my sales foals of 2008-2111). Evans did not sell many weanlings, yearlings, or two-year-olds in 2008-2010. I was able to verify another 25 that he had bred and sold in those three years.

That makes 131 Evans-breds in the study. The total for all Virginia-breds in the study was 529. So the idea is to compare the prices and results of the 131 Evans-breds with the remaining 398 foals bred by others in Virginia. Their prices are listed below.

Bred in Virginia by          Foals     Average     Maverage      Price Index

Evans                                    131       $155,008       311.86               2.03

All Others                            398        $65,834       203.30              1.32

Totals                                    527        $87,917        230.18              1.49

The Evans-breds were indeed expensive, with an average of $155,008, a maverage of 311.86, and a Price Index of 2.03. The 398 foals bred in Virginia by all others were less expensive, with an average of $65,834, a maverage of 203.30, and a Price Index of 1.32.

Among these 529 foals bred in Virginia were 28 stakes winners. Eight of them were bred by Evans. Twenty were bred by all others. All 28 are listed below in the usual format. I listed the breeders of the 20 “others” just to give you an idea of what other Virginia breeders were involved.

Bred in Virginia by Edward P. Evans

Blueskiesnrainbows (English Channel–Cho Cho San, Deputy Minister), 10Y33,000, 1,573 Performance Points.

Valid (Medaglia d’Oro–Grand Prayer, Grand Slam), 11Y500,000, 1,169.

Swagger Jack (Smart Strike–Lyrical Prayer, The Minstrel), 09Y280,000, 861.

Code West (Lemon Drop Kid–Charitabledonation, Saint Ballado), 11Y340,000, 782.

Noble Moon (Malibu Moon–Mambo Bell, Kingmambo), 11Y200,000, 658.

Mail (Medaglia d’Oro–Tap Dance, Pleasant Tap), 11Y470,000, 322.

Maleeh (Indian Charlie–Gold Mover, Gold Fever), 11Y350,000, 244.

Samysilver (Indian Charlie–Hidden Ransom, Silver Ghost), 10T70,000, 239.

Bred in Virginia by All Others

Redeemed (Include–Early Mass, Pleasant Tap), 09Y50,000, 1,732. Bred by Morgan’s Ford Farm.

Bodemeister (Empire Maker–Untouched Talent, Storm Cat), 10Y260,000, 1,705. Bred by Audley Farm Inc.

Camp Victory (Forest Camp–Victory Trick, Clever Trick), 09T90,000, 1,188. Bred by Atkins Homes, Inc.

Go Blue or Go Home (Bluegrass Cat–Go Baby Go, Lion Cavern), 09W90,000, 1,080. Bred by Morgan’s Ford Farm and Winstar Farm LLC.

Thank You Marylou (Birdstone–Menifeeque, Menifee), 11W47,000, 840. Bred by Mr. and Mrs. C. W. McNeely III.

Hot Summer (Malibu Moon–Summer Delight, Quiet American), 09Y180,000, 699. Bred by Lazy Lane Farms, Inc.

Dannhauser (Johannesburg–Hatpin, Smart Strike), 10T350,000, 573. Bred by Audley Farm.

In the Rough (Stormy Atlantic–Old Fashion Girl, Arch), 08Y40,000, 541. Bred by Lazy Lane Farms, Inc.

Tizahit (Tiznow–Never a No Hitter, Kris S.), 08Y185,000, 495. Bred by Morgan’s Ford Farm.

Shaishee (Indian Charlie–Hatpin, Smart Strike), 11Y325,000, 455. Bred by Audley Farm.

Position Limit (Bellamy Road–Payable On Demand, Out of Place), 09Y55,000, 420. Bred by Lazy Lane Farms, Inc.

Two Notch Road (Partner’s Hero–Capiana, Capote), 08Y2,500, 406. Bred by James M. Hackman.

Private Tale (Tale of the Cat–Taint, Private Account), 09Y50,000, 389. Bred by Mr. and Mrs. Frank Zureick, Mr. and Mrs. George Rayborn, and William M. Russell.

North Freeway (Jump Start–Shawnee Country, Chief’s Crown), 08W15,000, 374. Bred by Morgan’s Ford Farm.

Toccet’s Charm (Toccet–Ruler’s Charm, Cape Town), 08Y16,000, 323. Bred by Audley Farm Inc.

Argent Affair (Black Tie Affair–Caty’s Quest, Norquestor), 08Y20,000, 255. Bred by James M. Hackman.

Lunar Mist (Malibu Moon–Misty Rain, Rubiano), 08Y92,000, 255. Bred by Chance Farm.

Simmstown (Limehouse–Ruler’s Charm, Cape Town), 10T155,000, 250. Bred by Audley Farm Inc.

Ilikecandy (Malibu Moon–Real Candy, Real Quiet), 11Y170,000, 237. Bred by Hickory Tree Equine, LLC.

Firenze Feeling (Macho Uno–Elusive, Elmaamul), 11Y110,000, 225. Bred by Audley Farm.

Listed below are the racetrack results for these 131 and 398 foals. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, with 677 being average.

Bred by     Foals     Stakes Winners     %     APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Evans          131                   8                 6.01         731                    2.00

All Others   398                20                5.03         622                   1.40

Totals           529                28                5.29         653                   1.55

The 131 foals bred by Evans (PPI of 2.00) were better than the 398 foals bred by all others (PPI of 1.40). But they should have been better, based on their prices. The important point is the relationship between prices and results, listed below.

Bred By          Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Evans               131                  2.03                       2.00                      –0.03

All Others        398                 1.32                        1.40                       +0.08

Totals               529                  1.49                        1.55                       +0.06

Though the 131 foals bred by Evans show a difference of –0.03 (prices higher than results), that is a little bit misleading. The higher the price, the more difficult it is for the results to keep pace. So the 131 foals bred by Evans were not overvalued. Neither were the 398 foals bred by all others (difference of +0.08).

The important comparison to be made here is between the 398 foals bred in Virginia by all others and the 23,564 foals bred in Kentucky. That comparison is listed below.

Locale Bred                 Foals       Price Index       PPI (Result)       Difference

Virginia (not Evans)    398              1.32                    1.40                    +0.08

Kentucky                      23,564           1.27                    1.25                    –0.02

So even without the 131 foals bred by Evans, Virginia-breds were still more expensive (1.32 to 1.27) and better performers (1.40 to 1.25) than Kentucky-breds.

Edward P. Evans is missed in Virginia and elsewhere. As Ned Williams gas pointed out to me, Evans or his estate has been named Breeder of the Year in Virginia ten time: in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014.

Nevertheless, Virginia appears to be very capable of carrying on without him. Maybe I will repeat this whole study again in a few years (say sales foals of 2012-2015). Maybe Virginia will have gone “straight down the tubes” by then, but I would not wager the family jewels on it.

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6 Responses to Edward P. Evans and Virginia

  1. ned williams says:

    Boojum,
    I find the results very interesting. As I suspected the strength of the Virginia program lies in the a few very well healed family farms. Between Audley, Morgan’s Ford and Ned Evans 18 of the 28 stakes winners were bred. If we include Lazy Lane the number would go up to 21. Virginia has concentrated power and deep, but not necessarily wide, roots in the Thoroughbred breeding world. While I suspect that other states have the same sort of dominant farms, Virginia comes out on top because a few well positioned families/farms breed some very fine horses.

    • ddink55 says:

      Ned,

      Yes, I agree that Virginia has some pretty good farms other than Spring Hill (Evans). Perhaps the difference statistically is that Virginia does NOT have a lot of lower-class operations trying to sell commercially. That is the secret to statistical success. Keep the successful. Eliminate the unsuccessful.

      I have emailed all four of these posts to the VTA (Virginia Thoroughbred Association). You would think that they would love to publicize this material for their own benefit. But evidently they have not even deigned to LOOK at it. Kind of puzzling.

      Boojum

  2. ned williams says:

    Any response from the VTA?

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