Age in Pedigrees

OK, the topic today is age in pedigrees. Specifically, the chronological distance between foals and second dams and between foals and third dams. The chart below summarizes prices for the former.

Second Generation

Age to Second Dam        Foals        Average        Maverage       Price Index

5-14                                    5,949        $45,657           149.46                0.97

15-19                                 13,514        $49,493          159.92                 1.04

20-24                               12,878        $45,674           154.41                 1.00

25-29                                 8,601         $45,947           151.62                 0.98

30+                                    4,620         $41,350           145.80                0.95

The average Thoroughbred generation is 10-11 years. You can verify that by examining the chart above. Of the 45,562 total foals in this study, 19,463 (42.70%) are out of second dams ages 19 or younger. And 32,341 (70.98%) are out of second dams aged 24 or younger. So with a bit of extrapolation, the median is probably 21.

Just to review, the overall average of all 45,562 foals is $46,418. As you can see, there is not much variance in the five groups listed above. The lowest is 30+ ($41,350). The highest is 15-19 ($49,493).

The overall maverage for all 45,562 foals is 154.0. There is not much variance in the five groups listed above. The lowest is 30+ (145.80). The highest is 15-19 (159.92). The Price Indexes mirror the maverages. The lowest is 30+ (0.95). The highest is 15-19 (1.04).

The lack of variance in the five groups listed above means that buyers did not believe age in pedigrees to be much of a factor at all (or did not pay much attention to it at all, if any).

The chart below shows the prices for the distances between foals and their third dams.

Third Generation

Age to Third Dam          Foals        Average        Maverage       Price Index

10-19                                 1,151         $43,023           144.93                 0.94

20-24                                5,825       $47,293            155.31                  1.01

25-29                                10,715       $49,029           158.82                 1.03

30-34                                12,182       $46,706           154.69                 1.00

35-39                                  8,711        $46,590           153.30                 1.00

40-49                                  6,336       $41,508           147.28                 0.96

50+                                         642        $41,610           140.75                 0.91

Of the 45,562 total foals, 17,691 (38.83%) had third dams 29 or younger. And 29,873 (65.57%) had third dams 34 or younger. So using a bit of extrapolation, the median is probably 31 or 32.

Again, there is not much variance among the averages for the seven groups listed above. The lowest is 50+ ($41,610). The highest is 25-29 ($49,029). The maverages and Price Indexes follow suit. The lowest of the latter is 50+ (0.91). The highest is 25-29 (1.03).

Once again, the lack of variance in the seven groups listed above means that buyers did not believe age in pedigrees to be much of a factor at all (or did not pay much attention to it at all, if any).

Now let us examine the results for the second generation. APPPSW in the chart below stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of the stakes winners involved (the overall average being 677).

Second Generation

Age to Second Dam   Foals  Stakes Winners   %   APPPSW    PPI (Result)

5-14                               5,949            235            3.95       636             1.13

15-19                             13,514           480            3.55       720             1.15

20-24                           12,878           447             3.47       688            1.07

25-29                             8,601           237              2.76       584            0.72

30+                                4,620           103              2.23       734            0.73

The PPIs (results) for the five groups listed above showed a much higher variance than their prices did. The lowest was 25-29 (0.72). The highest was 15-19 (1.15). This means that buyers were not paying enough attention to this factor of age in pedigrees. It was more important in determining racetrack results than they thought it was (if they thought about it all).

Now let us examine the racetrack results for the third generation.

Third Generation

Age to Third Dam      Foals  Stakes Winners   %   APPPSW    PPI (Result)

10-19                             1,151              38              3.30      594               0.88

20-24                           5,825             228            3.91       753                1.32

25-29                          10,715             421             3.93       657                1.16

30-34                          12,182             399            3.28       702               1.00

35-39                            8,711              237            2.72        632               0.77

40-49                            6,336             167            2.64        649               0.77

50+                                   642               12            1.87         623               0.52

The PPIs (results) for the seven groups listed above showed a much higher variance than their prices did. The lowest was 50+ (0.52). The highest was 20-24 (1.32). This means that buyers were not paying enough attention to this factor of age in pedigrees. It was more important in determining racetrack results than they thought it was (if they thought about it all).

Now let us compare prices versus results for the second generation.

Second Generation

Age to Second Dam        Foals     Price Index     PPI (Result)      Difference

5-14                                   5,949             0.97                1.13                     +0.16

15-19                                13,514             1.04                 1.15                     +0.11

20-24                               12,878            1.00                 1.07                    +0.07

25-29                                 8,601            0.98                 0.72                   –0.26

30+                                    4,620            0.95                 0.73                   –0.22

As you can see, the three lowest categories had positive differences: 5-14 (+0.16), 15-19 (+0.11), 20-24 (+0.07). These three groups were overperformers. The two highest groups had negative differences: 25-29 (–0.26) and 30+ (–0.22). Those two groups were underperformers.

Now let us do the same for the third generation.

Third Generation

Age to Third Dam           Foals     Price Index     PPI (Result)      Difference

10-19                                  1,151              0.94                0.88                 –0.06

20-24                                 5,825             1.01                 1.32                   +0.31

25-29                                10,715             1.03                 1.16                   +0.13

30-34                                12,182            1.00                 1.03                   +0.03

35-39                                  8,711             1.00                 0.77                  –0.23

40-49                                  6,336           0.96                 0.77                  –0.19

50+                                         642           0.91                  0.52                 –0.39

The three highest groups had negative differences: 35-39 (–0.23), 40-49 (–0.19), and 50+ (–0.39). So did the lowest group (10-19 at –0.06). These four groups were underperformers.

The other three groups had positive differences: 20-24 (+0.31). 25-29 (+0.13), and 30-34 (+0.03). These three groups were overperformers.

So in terms of age to the second dam, anything 24 or less was a good value for the price. Anything 25 or higher was a bad value for the price.

In terms of age to the third dam, 20-34 was a good value for the price. Anything 35 or higher was a bad value for the price. So was 11-19.

Allow me to summarize these results in anthropromorphic terms. Many men like younger women, the younger the better. Age to the second dam was a perfect example of that. The youngest group (5-14) had the best results relative to prices, followed by the next-youngest group (15-19), followed by the next-youngest group (20-24).

Age to the third dam was a bit trickier. Reverting to anthropromorphic terms, many men like younger women. Many men like them the younger the better. Some men like them TOO young. There are certain laws on the books. The term “jailbait” comes to mind.

Think of the youngest group in the third generation (10-19) as potential “jailbait.” Best to avoid, just to be on the safe side. The “sweet spot” in the third generation was 20-24. The next two groups (25-29 and 30-34) were also positive. Negative territory started at 35 and older.

(And apologies to anyone offended by my anthropromorphic analogies. You know I respect PC just about as much as I respect most breeding theories.)

The youngest group in the second generation (5-14) was very good, but the youngest group in the third generation (10-19) was slightly negative.  I think this boils down to racing class.

If your second dam is 14 years or younger relative to your foal, the racing class of your first two dams might still be good. If your third dam is 19 years or younger relative to your foal, chances are that some of your first three dams are lacking in racing class.

So this factor of age in pedigrees appears to more important than most buyers think (if they think about it at all). But it is not anywhere near as important as racing class in the dam, a topic to which I will return in my next post (which might be a while in coming forth).

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