Quite Another Matter

In my last post I provided an overview of inbreeding (4×4 or closer) and outcrossing and everything in between. This post will be much more specific. In this post I will examine close inbreeding (3×3 or closer).

Theoretically 3×3 or closer includes 1×2, 2×1, and 2×2. I did not find any foals of that description in my sample group (sales foals of 2008-2111). The only ones I found were 2×3, 3×2, and 3×3.

Listed below are the stakes winners fitting this description. Listed for each stakes winner is its name, pedigree (sire–dam, broodmare sire), sales information, the duplication involved, and the number of Performance Points earned (the overall average for all stakes winners now being 687). They are listed in descending order by Performance Points (best stakes winners first).

I got tired of typing “Mr. Prospector” so many times and have abbreviated that name to MP. Discussion resumes at the end of this list.

Fly Down (Mineshaft–Queen Randi, Fly So Free), 08Y80,000, 3×3 MP, 1,590.

Forty Tales (Tale of the Cat–Forty Love, Forty Niner), 11Y80,000, 3×3 MP, 1,467.

Winning Cause (Giant’s Causeway–Raffishing Look, Kingmambo), 11Y115,000, 2×3 Storm Cat, 1,343.

Unbridled’s Note (Unbridled’s Song–Siberian Fur, Siberian Express), 10Y150,000, 3×3 Caro, 1,225.

Jenny’s So Great (Greatness–Jenny’s Search, Lost Soldier), 09T53,000, 3×3 Danzig, 1,178.

Balance the Books (Lemon Drop Kid–Kreisleriana, Seeking the Gold), 11Y37,000, 3×3 MP, 1,005.

Next Question (Stormy Atlantic–Seattle Stardust, Slew City Slew), 09Y30,000, 3×3 Seattle Slew, 824.

Dice Flavor (Scat Daddy–Afleet Summer, Afleet), 11Y80,000, 3×3 MP, 783.

Fusaichiswonderful (Fusaichi Pegasus–Cry Baby, Dance Brightly), 11Y12,000, 2×3 MP, 714.

Noble Moon (Malibu Moon–Mambo Bell, Kingmambo), 11W200,000, 3×3 MP, 700.

Tale of a Champion (Tale of a Cat–If Angels Sang, Seattle Slew), 09Y62,000, 3×3 Terlingua, 670.

King Henry (Congrats–Wood Witch, Woodman), 09Y17,000, 3×3 MP, 660.

Percussion (Bluegrass Cat–Cradlesong, Pine Bluff), 08W200,000, 3×3 A.P. Indy, 656.

Ailalea (Pulpit–Wood Sprite, Woodman), 08Y340,000, 3×3 MP, 628.

El Padrino (Pulpit–Enchanted Rock, Giant’s Causeway), 10Y210,000, 3×3 MP, 627.

Theyskens’ Theory (Bernardini–Heat Lightning, Summer Squall), 09Y250,000, 3×3 Weekend Surprise, 596.

Big Push (Black Mambo–Listentothebells, Allen’s Prospect), 08T45,000, 3×3 MP, 570.

Vegas No Show (Hard Spun–The Hess Express, Lord Carson), 11Y105,000, 3×3 Turkoman, 563.

Mouro (Grand Slam–Kalpita, Spinning World), 10Y20,000, 3×3 MP, 514.

Heavenly Landing (Pulpit–Peace River Lady, Woodman), 08Y340,000, 3×3 MP, 513.

Hightail (Mineshaft–Stormy Renee, Storm Cat), 11Y110,000, 3×3 Seattle Slew, 460.

Odysseus (Malibu Moon–Persimmon Hill, Conquistador Cielo), 08Y110,000, 3×3 MP, 424.

Ilusora (Tale of the Cat–If Angels Sang, Seattle Slew), 08Y120,000, 3×3 Terlingua, 400.

Ryans Charm (Heatseeker–Lemon Fresh Tide, Lemon Drop Kid), 11Y6,000, 3×3 Storm Cat, 400.

Tequila Factor (Pure Prize–Single Factor, Mutakddim), 11T20,000, 3×3 Seeking the Gold, 384.

Flash Forward (Curlin–Magical Flash, Miswaki), 11Y180,000, 3×3 MP, 360.

Offlee Swift (Offlee Wild–Cold Porridge, Tiffany Ice), 08Y17,000, 3×3 Icecapade, 339.

Deliburnsky (Flatter–Deliciously, Distinctive Pro), 11T70,000, 3×3 MP, 329.

Bear’s Hard Ten (Rock Hard Ten–Playforme, Gone West), 08Y21,000, 3×3 MP, 273.

Daddy Loves Gold (Scat Daddy–Glitz N Gold, Seeking the Gold), 11Y41,000, 3×3 MP, 261.

Floral Sky (Sky Mesa–Floral Park, Forest Wildcat), 11Y230,000, 3×3 Storm Cat, 260.

Alec’s Moon (Malibu Moon–Bello Cielo, Conquistador Cielo), 09Y125,000, 3×3 MP, 226.

Private Tutor (Student Council–Senorita Swinger, El Prado), 11Y7,000, 3×3 Kris S., 223.

Flashy Ways (Catienus–Golden Kitty, Carson Kitty), 11Y3,500, 3×3 MP, 214.

Brennero (Divine Park–Pilaf, Woodman), 11Y22,000, 3×3 MP, 200.

Catrageous (Tale of the Cat–Frozen Treat, Dynaformer), 11Y20,000, 3×3 MP, 198.

Our Pedroia (Catienus–Pompeii City, Carson City), 11Y2,000, 3×3 MP, 198 .

Roman Chestnut (Roman Ruler–Silverdew, Silver Deputy), 08Y7,500, 3×2 Silver Deputy, 173.

Lady Primal (Primal Storm–Lady Seneca, Seneca Jones), 09Y1,900, 3×3 Storm Cat, 140.

Sundance Kit (English Channel–Call Me Up, Miner’s Mark), 09W35,000, 3×3 MP, 100.

Listed above are 40 stakes winners. That may seem like a pretty good result. It would be a pretty good result if it came from 1,000 foals. If 2,000 foals were required to produce these 40 stakes winners, it would not be a very good result.

To get down to the nitty-gritty, 1,521 foals qualified as being inbred 3×3 or closer. Listed below are their prices.

Foals           Average              Maverage           Price Index

1,521             $51,196                  159.34                      1.03

The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418. The closely inbred foals were about 10% above that at $51,196. The overall maverage was 154.0. The closely inbred foals were about 3% above that at 159.34. Hence the Price Index of 1.03. So these 1,521 foals were slightly more expensive than average overall.

Since the prices were slightly above average, the results should have been slightly above average as well. Below are the actual results. APPPSW stands for average performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, the norm now being 687.

Foals          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

1,521                       40                      2.63            560                    0.64

Overall there were 1,526 stakes winners from 45,562 foals (3.35%). These 1,521 foals were about 21% below that at 2.63%.

The overall average Performance Points for all 1,526 stakes winners was 687. These 1,521 foals were about 18% below that at 560.

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 1,521 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.64, compared to a price of 1.03. They sold for prices about 3% ABOVE average and produced results about 36% BELOW average.

Needless to say, this is not a good result at all. It is about the worst result I have ever seen relative to its prices for this large a group of foals.

So inbreeding 3×3 or closer is not a good idea at all. It drastically underperforms its opportunities.

Which leads me to wonder why breeders persist in this practice. This is not the first time I have explored this subject matter and came to the same general conclusion.

I reckon breeders persist in this practice because they see one good horse bred that way and erroneously (ignoring the number of foals involved) assume that means the practice is good and beneficial.

Also because pedigree “experts” over the years have assured them that inbreeding is good. Some such “experts” even say that the closer the inbreeding, the better. “Incest is best.” Reality, as you can see, is quite another matter.

Of course the prices and results depend upon what name is being duplicated. You may have noticed that over half (23) of these 40 stakes winners were inbred to Mr. Prospector (MP).

in my next post I will examine inbreeding 3×3 or closer to Mr. Prospector in greater detail.

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