Close Inbreeding to Mr. Prospector

In my last post I promised a more thorough examination of sales foals of 2008-2111 inbred 3×3 or closer to Mr. Prospector. Here goes, starting with prices.

Duplication          Foals          Average           Maverage          Price Index

Mr. Prospector      564           $62,803               187.18                     1.22

All Others               957           $44,355                142.94                    0.93

As you can see, Mr. Prospector accounts for 37% of all 1,521 foals inbred 3×3 or closer. The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418. The 564 foals inbred 3×3 or closer to Mr. Prospector were 35% higher than that at $62,803. The overall maverage for all 45,562 foals was 154.0. The 564 foals inbred 3×3 or closer to Mr. Prospector were 22% higher than that at 187.18. Hence their Price Index of 1.22.

The remaining 957 foals inbred to all other ancestors averaged $44,355, a little over 4% below the overall average of $46,418. Those same foals posted a maverage of 142.94, about 7% below the overall maverage of 154.0. Hence their Price Index of 0.93.

So the 564 foals inbred 3×3 or closer to Mr. Prospector were expected to have pretty good results. Their actual results are listed below. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, the benchmark now being 687.

Duplication        Foals        Stakes Winners         %         APPPSW     PPI (Result)

Mr. Prospector    564                     23                      4.08          546                 0.97

All Others              957                    17                       1.78           578                 0.45

See my previous post for a listing of the 40 individual stakes winners inbred 3×3 or closer, including the 23 inbred to Mr. Prospector. With 23 stakes winners from 564 foals, this group had a very respectable 4.08% stakes winners from foals (significantly higher than the overall benchmark of 3.35%).

Those 23 stakes winners averaged only 546 Performance Points apiece, however, significantly lower than the overall benchmark of 687.

So taking both quantity and quality of stakes winners into account, these 564 foals had a PPI (result) of 0.97. They sold for prices about 22% ABOVE average and achieved results about 3% BELOW average.

So these 564 foals did NOT live up to expectations. Their results were not quite average (1.00) despite a price of 1.22. The best thing you can say about this group is that they were much better than the 957 foals inbred 3×3 or closer to all other ancestors.

The results for those 957 foals were simply abysmal: 1.78% stakes winners from foals, APPPSW of 578, and a PPI (result) of 0.45. They sold for prices about 7% below average (Price Index of 0.93) and achieved results about 55% below average (PPI 0f 0.45).

So if you insist on inbreeding 3×3 or closer, Mr. Prospector produced the best (although not very good) results. All others were much, much worse. And those all others were duplicated to such names as Northern Dancer, Storm Cat, Danzig, Seattle Slew, A.P. Indy, etc.

Speaking of Northern Dancer, in my next post I will have some interesting statistics about foals inbred 3×3 or closer to him.

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