A Good Idea????

In my last post I promised a more thorough examination of sales foals of 2008-2111 inbred 3×3 or closer to Northern Dancer. Three such foals were very expensive sons of Storm Cat. They are listed below.

On a Storm (Storm Cat–Onaga, Mr. Prospector), 09Y2,800,000, 3×3 Northern Dancer, unraced.

Fighting Brave (Storm Cat–Get Lucky, Mr. Prospector), 08Y2,000,000, 3×3 Northern Dancer, 13-1-1-1, $25,965, 3rd Amethyst S. (IRE-G3).

Bakhoor (Storm Cat–Gossamer, Seattle Slew), 08Y1,200,000, 3×3 Northern Dancer, 21-5-2-3, $101,375.

As you can see, these three colts sold for a total of $6,000,000 and achieved no great successes. One was unraced. One was an ordinary winner. Fighting Brave was a G3-placed (third in a field of six) winner and earner of $25,965 in 13 total starts.

All told there were 60 such foals inbred 3×3 or closer to Northern Dancer. Their prices are listed below.

Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

60               $164,006           221.73                     1.44

Needless to say, the prices are quite high, if only because of the three colts listed above. Listed below are the prices of the remaining 57 foals (those three most expensive colts removed).

Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

57                $67,375              175.51                      1.14

Prices are obviously much lower without those three colts, but they are still well above the norms. Their average of $67,375 is about 45% above the overall average of $46,418. Their maverage of 175.51 is still about 14% above the overall maverage of 154.0 (hence the Price Index of 1.14).

At this point I usually list the results for a given group of foals. In this case I have nothing to list because these 60 foals produced ZERO stakes winners. ZIP. ZILCH. NADA. Hence they have a PPI (result) of 0.00.

Northern Dancer was one of the very best sires of the 20th century. Yet inbreeding 3×3 or closer to him among this sample group produced HIGH prices and ZERO results.

Still think that inbreeding 3×3 or closer is a good idea?????

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2 Responses to A Good Idea????

  1. ned williams says:

    I have heard this expression from pedigree wizards on several occasions….”the more Northern Dancer, the better.”
    Hmm…I guess not.

    • ddink55 says:

      Ned,

      I strongly suspect that chronology has something to do with these results. ND is a foal of 1961. He is simply too old now to have much of a positive effect from the third generation. I also suspect that Mr. Prospector will soon be facing the same fate.

      Boojum

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