Fappiano and Secretariat????

The effectiveness (or lack thereof) of inbreeding depends to some extent on the name duplicated. This was demonstrated a few posts ago with respect to inbreeding 3×3 or closer to Mr. Prospector.

So I decided to take a look at names duplicated 4×4 or closer (including 3×3 or closer) among sales foals of 2008-2111. The 11 names below showed up most often.

Name                            Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Mr. Prospector           5,949          $56,193               175.72                    1.14

Northern Dancer       4,270          $56,169              168.63                    1.09

Raise a Native                 915          $48,618              157.36                    1.02

Secretariat                       766         $84,763              225.73                     1.47

Seattle Slew                     563         $56,426              169.59                     1.10

Danzig                               252         $36,269             132.39                     0.86

Blushing Groom             248         $36,893             144.69                     0.94

Storm Bird                        237         $39,136             149.61                     0.97

Buckpasser                       210         $42,068            134.39                     0.87

In Reality                          205         $48,646            158.70                    1.03

Fappiano                           167          $91,196             217.20                     1.41

Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer are the two most dominant names, not surprisingly. There is a huge gap from Northern Dancer (4,270 foals) to Raise a Native in third (915 foals). Secretariat (766 foals) and Seattle Slew (563 foals) are not too far behind Raise a Native.

I also kept tabs on foals inbred 4×4 or closer to various females. There were 623 such foals, placing that group between Secretariat and Seattle Slew.

There is another noticeable gap from Seattle Slew (563 foals) to Danzig (252 foals). Danzig is closely followed by Blushing Groom (248 foals), Storm Bird (237 foals), Buckpasser (210 foals), In Reality (205 foals,), and Fappiano (167 foals).

I could have stopped with In Reality. That would have made a top ten, all of which had 200+ foals. But I included Fappiano because he was very interesting.

The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418. Fappiano’s average was almost twice that at $91,196. Secretariat was also very high at $84,763.

Then came a big gap back to a cluster of three: Seattle Slew at $56,426, Mr. Prospector at $56,193, and Northern Dancer at $56,169. In Reality ($48,646) and Raise a Native ($48,618) were also slightly above the norm ($46,418).

The remaining four names were all below the norm: Buckpasser ($42,608), Storm Bird ($39,136), Blushing Groom ($38,693), and Danzig ($36,269).

The overall maverage for all 45,562 foals was 154.0. The maverages and Price Indexes for these 11 names basically mirrored the averages. The one exception is that Secretariat (maverage of 225.73 and Price Index of 1.47) is slightly ahead of Fappiano (maverage of 217.20 and Price Index of 1.41) by these two measures.

Most of the expensive foals inbred 4×4 or closer to Fappiano were by such top sires as Bernardini, Tapit, and Unbridled’s Song. Fappiano had plenty of cheap foals as well. His prices were distributed very widely. Secretariat was a bit more consistent than Fappiano in terms of prices (not as many cheap foals). That accounts for the difference in rankings.

So if prices are any indication, inbreeding 4×4 or closer to Fappiano and Secretariat should have produced the best results within this group. In my next post I will detail the actual results.

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