Sires of Second Dams (Seeking the Gold)

As promised. here are some statistics on sires of second dams among sales foals of 2008-2111, starting with prices. The ten sires listed are the most popular ones (the ones who showed up most often).

Sire                               Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Mr. Prospector             614           $92,899            233.24                    1.51

Deputy Minister          464           $64,156             178.12                     1.16

Secretariat                    403           $61,279             175.32                     1.14

Seattle Slew                  396           $74,404            211.02                     1.37

Storm Cat                      395           $73,460            210.38                    1.37

Danzig                            395           $72,443            202.53                    1.32

Nijinsky II                     375           $73,198             203.18                    1.32

Alydar                             354          $88,792             224.93                   1.46

Dixieland Band             314           $64,754            190.33                    1.24

Vice Regent                   308           $55,656            180.70                    1.17

Totals                            4,018          $73,461            202.69                    1.32

The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418. All ten sires posted averages well above that, ranging from $92,899 for Mr. Prospector to $55,656 for Vice Regent. The maverages and Price Indexes followed suit, the latter ranging from 1.51 for Mr. Prospector to 1.14 for Secretariat.

Listed below are the racetrack results for these same ten sires. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, the overall average now being 691.

Sire                                Foals          Stakes Winners         %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Mr. Prospector             614                     30                      4.89            799                    1.68

Deputy Minister          464                     19                       4.09          1,015                   1.79

Secretariat                    403                       7                        1.74             757                   0.56

Seattle Slew                  396                     19                        4.80            514                   1.06

Storm Cat                      395                     21                        5.32            909                  2.08

Danzig                            395                     18                        4.56            739                   1.45

Nijinsky II                     375                       8                         2.13          1,094                 1.00

Alydar                            354                      14                        3.95             756                  1.29

Dixieland Band            314                      17                         5.41             949                  2.21

Vice Regent                   308                     16                        5.19              678                  1.51

Totals                            4,018                   169                      4.21              811                   1.46

Since all ten sires posted prices well above average, their results should have been above average as well. Eight of the ten were above average. Nijinsky II was right at 1.00. Secretariat was way below at 0.56. The two best were Dixieland Band (2.21) and Storm Cat (2.08).

The most important consideration is results versus prices, which are summarized below.

Sire                                 Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Mr. Prospector               614                   1.51                      1.68                        +0.17

Deputy Minister            464                   1.16                      1.79                        +0.63

Secretariat                      403                   1.14                      0.56                       –0.58

Seattle Slew                    396                   1.37                      1.06                       –0.31

Storm Cat                        395                   1.37                      2.08                       +0.71

Danzig                              395                   1.32                      1.45                       +0.13

Nijinsky II                       375                   1.32                       1.00                      –0.32

Alydar                               354                  1.46                       1.29                       –0.17

Dixieland Band               314                  1.24                       2.21                        +0.97

Vice Regent                      308                 1.17                        1.51                        +0.34

Totals                               4,018                1.32                       1.46                       +0.14

Six of the ten had positive differences, with Dixieland Band (+0.97) and Storm Cat (+0.71) leading the way. Four of the ten had negative differences, with Secretariat being by far the worst at –0.58.

The table above also shows the totals for these ten sires. They accounted for 4,018 of the 45,562 total foals (a little under 9%). The composite results for all ten sires were pretty good, with a price of 1.32 and a result of 1.46. These 4,018 foals sold for prices about 32% above average and achieved results about 46% above average (a positive difference of 0.14). They exceeded expectations, in other words.

A couple posts ago I showed statistics on the eight most popular sires of the broodmare sire (P3 in the third generation). Those eight sires accounted for a little over 12,000 foals, with a composite price of 1.07 and a composite result of 1.08. Overall, they were just slightly better than expectations.

These 4,018 foals by the top ten sires of second dams (P4) in the third generation were even more positive (price of 1.32, result of 1.46). The market had the top eight sires at P3 pretty well pegged. The top ten sires at P4 were collectively undervalued, a result I have seen over and over again.

Five of the top ten sires at P4 also appeared among the top eight at P3 (Mr. Prospector, Deputy Minister, Seattle Slew, Storm Cat, and Danzig). The other five (Secretariat, Nijinsky II, Alydar, Dixieland Band, and Vice Regent) did not. Call the former five generalists (prominent at any position in pedigrees) and the latter five specialists (prominent only at specific positions in pedigrees, usually as the sire of females, in this case as sires of second dams).

The five generalists fared much better than the five specialists, as summarized in the chart below.

Sires                              Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Generalists                  2,264                 1.36                       1.62                       +0.26

Specialists                    1,754                  1.27                      1.26                       –0.01

Totals                            4,018                 1.32                      1.46                       +0.14

The five specialists posted a price of 1.27 and a result of 1.26 for a negative difference of 0.01. The just barely failed to live up to expectations. The five generalists posted a price of 1.36 and a result of 1.62 for a positive difference of 0.26. They exceeded expectations quite comfortably and are the main reason all ten sires at P4 were collectively undervalued.

I previewed this post by referring to Seeking the Gold, sire of the second dam of undefeated Nyquist. I did track Seeking the Gold as a sire of second dams among sales foals of 2008-2111, but he was nowhere near popular enough to be among the top ten. He was too young (a foal of 1985).

I am pretty sure that if and when I ever get around to examining sales foals of 2012-2015, for example, Seeking the Gold will figure prominently among sires of second dams. And with Nyquist to his credit in that category, his results will be spectacular. Even without Nyquist, I am pretty sure that Seeking the Gold already is and will continue to be an excellent sire of second dams.

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