Seattle Slew, Danzig, Blushing Groom

I have been trying to come up with a snappy introduction to today’s topic. Unsuccessfully. So let me just state that I find the broodmare sire of the broodmare sire (P6 in the fourth generation) a fascinating position in pedigrees.

So here are some statistics on the leading sires in that position, starting with prices. Listed below are the 14 sires who showed up most often at this position among sales foals of 2008-2111 (all of them with at least 500 foals). They are listed in descending order by number of foals.

Sire                           Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Secretariat              2,144          $89,120             221.49                   1.44

Buckpasser             2,014            53,117              169.19                    1.10

Mr. Prospector       1,323            51,694             164.94                   1.07

Northern Dancer      723            36,749             140.94                   0.92

Caro                             673            65,773             192.58                    1.25

Blushing Groom       610             56,288            176.32                    1.14

In Reality                   588            32,650             138.68                   0.90

Nijinsky II                 585             38,175              137.71                    0.89

Halo                            575             45,893              156.81                   1.02

Seattle Slew               571             44,147               145.88                  0.95

Hoist the Flag           566            45,295              150.07                   0.97

Herbager                    559            55,755               178.05                   1.16

Danzig                        516            46,022              161.37                    1.05

Alydar                         513            35,199               134.77                   0.88

Totals                      11,960          55,464               171.01                    1.10

The first four names on this list are no surprises. Caro is there mainly because of Unbridled’s Song and Maria’s Mon. Blushing Groom is there mainly because of Carson City and Awesome Again. Herbager is there mainly because of Saint Ballado and Devil’s Bag. Danzig is there mainly because of Arch and Distorted Humor.

The overall average for all 45,562 foals is $46,418. Six are above that figure, led by Secretariat ($89,120) and Caro ($65,773). Eight are below that figure, the lowest being In Reality ($32,650).

In terms of Price Indexes, eight are above 1.00, led by Secretariat (1.44) and Caro (1.25). Six are below 1.00, the lowest being Alydar (0.88).

Listed below are the racetrack results for these same 14 sires. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, a measure of the quality of stakes winners involved, the overall average now being 693.

Sire                           Foals          Stakes Winners          %          APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Secretariat              2,144                     89                     4.15             759                     1.35

Buckpasser             2,014                     73                     3.62            675                     1.05

Mr. Prospector       1,323                    50                     3.78            508                     0.82

Northern Dancer      723                    17                      2.35            569                     0.57

Caro                             673                    34                     5.05            612                     1.32

Blushing Groom       610                    33                      5.41            666                     1.54

In Reality                   588                    10                      1.70            429                     0.31

Nijinsky II                 585                     19                     3.25             802                    1.11

Halo                            575                     20                    3.48             710                    1.06

Seattle Slew               571                     33                    5.78              836                   2.07

Hoist the Flag           566                    21                     3.71               567                   0.90

Herbager                    559                    22                    3.94              582                   0.98

Danzig                        516                     25                    4.84              960                   1.99

Alydar                         513                     16                    3.12               519                    0.69

Totals                     11,960                   462                   3.86              677                    1.12

Since Secretariat had by far the highest prices, he should also have had the best results as well. He did not, however, ranking fourth at 1.35, behind Seattle Slew (2.07), Danzig (1.99), and Blushing Groom (1.54). In Reality was by far the worst at 0.31.

Of course the important point is prices versus results, and the differences are shown in the chart below.

Sire                           Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Secretariat              2,144                 1.44                      1.35                       –0.09

Buckpasser             2,014                 1.10                      1.05                       –0.05

Mr. Prospector       1,323                 1.07                     0.82                      –0.25

Northern Dancer      723                 0.92                    0.57                       –0.35

Caro                             673                 1.25                     1.32                       +0.07

Blushing Groom       610                  1.14                     1.54                       +0.40

In Reality                   588                 0.90                   0.31                        –0.59

Nijinsky II                 585                 0.89                    1.11                         +0.22

Halo                            575                 1.02                    1.06                        +0.04

Seattle Slew               571                 0.95                    2.07                        +1.12

Hoist the Flag           566                0.97                    0.90                       –0.07

Herbager                    559               1.16                     0.98                       –0.18

Danzig                        516                1.05                     1.99                        +0.94

Alydar                         513                0.88                   0.69                        –0.19

Totals                      11,960               1.10                    1.12                         +0.02

The first thing that jumps out at me is that the top four by total number of foals all had negative differences: Secretarist was –0.09, Buckpasser was –0.05, Mr. Prospector was –0.25, and Northern Dancer was –0.35. So the four most popular names were all overvalued. Caro (fifth on the list) was the first sire with a positive difference (+0.07).

Only six of the 14 had positive differences. Eight had negative differences. But overall, the composite for all 14 sires shows a price of 1.10, a result of 1.12, and a difference of +0.02. So taken together, all 14 were very close to fairly valued. The individual sires varied widely, however.

On the negative side, In Reality was by far the worst at –0.59. On the positive side, Seattle Slew was by far the best at +1.12, followed by Danzig at +0.94 and Blushing Groom at +0.40.

Seattle Slew, Danzig, and Blushing Groom all benefited from some very good stakes winners (home runs). Perhaps a little more detail on their best stakes winners would be enlightening.

Listed below are the three best stakes winners by Seattle Slew in this category.

Musical Romance (Concorde’s Tune–Candlelight Dinner, Slew Gin Fizz), 09T22,000, 3,582 Performance Points.

Elusive Kate (Elusive Quality–Gout de Terroir, Lemon Drop Kid), 10Y70,000, 3,284.

Comma to the Top (Bwana Charlie–Maggies Storm, Stormy Atlantic), 08W5,000, 2,949.

The three broodmare sires listed above (Slew Gin Fizz, Lemon Drop Kid, and Stormy Atlantic) are all out of Seattle Slew mares. That Seattle Slew’s three best stakes winners involve three different broodmare sires is impressive in its own right. Not to mention that two of them were by marginal sires (Concorde’s Tune and Bwana Charlie).

Listed below are the three best stakes winners by Danzig in this category.

I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley–Arch’s Gal Edith, Arch), 10Y11,000, 4,194.

Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie–Playa Maya, Arch), 08W160,000, 2,806.

Molly Morgan (Ghostzapper–Capitulation, Distorted Humor), 10Y90,000, 2,082.

Arch and Distorted Humor are both out of Danzig mares. These three stakes winners are less impressive than Seattle Slew’s three stakes winners. Only two broodmare sires are involved. Two of the three were by very good sires (Indian Charlie and Ghostzapper). Distorted Humor is relatively young and was just getting started as a broodmare sire for sales foals of 2008-2111.

Listed below are the two best stakes winners by Blushing Groom in this category.

Havre de Grace (Saint Liam–Easter Bunnette, Carson City), 08Y380,000, 4,586.

Vyjack (Into Mischief–Life Happened, Stravinsky), 11Y45,000, 2,062.

Carson City and Stravinsky are both out of Blushing Groom mares. Stravinsky is more surprising than Carson City, although Stravinsky is also the broodmare sire of turf sensation Tepin (by Freud, not exactly a chief of the breed).

Blushing Groom has a Price Index of 1.14 in the charts above, Danzig 1.05, and Seattle Slew 0.95. So Seattle Slew achieved a very good record as a broodmare sire of broodmare sires among sales foals of 2008-2111 with BELOW-AVERAGE PRICES. Perhaps that is the most impressive point of all.

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