About three months ago I presented some statistics on sires of the broodmare sire (P3 in the third generation). Today I do the same for sires of sires of broodmare sires (P5 in the fourth generation), basically the same position, only one generation farther back.
I am going to condense today’s results into an abbreviated form. A dozen sires are listed, the most popular ones (ones that showed up most often) first.
Leading Sires at P5 in the Fourth Generation
Sire Foals Price Index PPI (Result) Difference
Northern Dancer 5,800 1.07 1.02 –0.05
Raise a Native 5,767 1.05 0.87 –0.18
Mr. Prospector 4,943 0.97 1.04 +0.07
Storm Bird 2,452 1.07 0.99 –0.08
Nearctic 2,197 1.04 1.18 +0.14
Hail to Reason 2,026 1.07 1.20 +0.13
Vice Regent 1,610 1.04 1.17 +0.13
Bold Reasoning 1,596 1.14 1.42 +0.28
Damascus 825 0.86 0.64 –0.22
Bold Ruler 785 0.82 0.40 –0.42
In Reality 779 0.85 1.09 +0.24
Seattle Slew 715 1.09 0.81 –0.28
The identities of the sires listed are no great surprises. The big three (Northern Dancer, Raise a Native, and Mr. Prospector) lead the way. Then there is a gap back to a group of three (Storm Bird, Nearctic, and Hail to Reason) all in the 2,000’s. They are followed by Vice Regent and Bold Reasoning (1,610 foals and 1,596 foals respectively). The trailing group (Damascus, Bold Ruler, In Reality, and Seattle Slew) range from 825 to 715 foals.
Seven of the first eight sires have prices above the norms, ranging from Bold Reasoning (1.14) to Mr. Prospector (0.97). Three of the last four have prices below the norms, ranging from Seattle Slew (1.09) to Bold Ruler (0.82).
The 12 sires are evenly split in terms of prices versus results. Six had better results than prices (the desired pattern). Six had higher prices than results (the undesired pattern). Bold Reasoning was best at +0.28. Bold Ruler was worst at –0.42.
That positive result for Bold Reasoning is very misleading. He had 1,596 foals at P5 in the fourth generation. Seattle Slew had the same 1,596 foals at P3 in the third generation. I did not find any Bold Reasonings that were not Seattle Slews. Hence Bold Reasoning’s +0.28 at P5 in the fourth generation is all attributable to Seattle Slew at P3 in the third generation.
Some other situations are similar. Storm Bird has 2,452 foals at P5 in the fourth generation; 2,380 of them were Storm Cat at P3 in the third generation; only 72 (and zero stakes winners) were NOT Storm Cat in the third generation.
Vice Regent has 1,610 foals at P5 in the fourth generation; 1,592 of them were Deputy Minister at P3 in the third generation; only 18 (and zero stakes winners) were NOT Deputy Minister in the third generation.
You might think that Northern Dancer and Nearctic would be similar, but they are not. Nearctic has 2,197 foals at P5 in the fourth generation; 1,643 of them are Northern Dancer at P3 in the third generation; 554 are Nearctic NOT though Northern Dancer.
Those 554 foals are pretty good too. They had a price of 0.97, a result of 1.49, and a difference of +0.52. That is much better than Northern Dancer’s numbers at P3 in the third generation (1.07, 1.07, 0).
You might think that Beholder had something to do with these numbers for Nearctic. Beholder is out of a mare by Tricky Creek, by Clever Trick, by Icecapade, by Nearctic. That puts Nearctic in the fifth generation and Icecapde at P5 in the fourth generation. So Beholder did not help this group at all.
The two best stakes winners for Nearctic in this group were Mizdirection (out of a Clever Trick mare, 3,820 Performance Points) and Joyful Victory (out of a Wild Again mare, 2,653).
On the opposite end of the spectrum is the case of Mr. Prospector and Raise a Native. The former has 4,900 foals at P3 in the third generation. The latter has 5,767 foals at P5 in the fourth generation. So only 867 of those 5,767 foals were NOT though Mr. Prospector in the third generation.
And those 867 foals were pretty pathetic, with a price of 0.88 and a result of 0.36, a difference of –0.52. Without Mr. Prospector, Raise a Native was pretty much a complete dud in the broodmare sire line, at least for this particular sample, sales foals of 2008-2111.
One generation can make a big difference. Seattle Slew is a good illustration of this point. He was very good at P3 in the third generation (price of 1.14, result of 1.42, difference of +0.28). He was almost equally bad one generation farther back, at P5 in the fourth generation, with a price of 1.09, a result of 0.81, and a difference of –0.28.
The explanation for this is pretty simple. Seattle Slew at P3 in the third generation includes A.P. Indy as a broodmare sire. Hence the high prices and good results. Seattle Slew at P5 in the fourth generation includes sons of A.P. Indy as broodmare sires. Prices still pretty high, results not nearly as good, at least through sales foals of 2008-2111.
Positions themselves can make a big difference. Seattle Slew is a good illustration. Consider his numbers at P5 and P6 in the fourth generation. I have just recited his numbers for the former (P5, a price of 1.09, a result of 0.81, and a difference of –0.28). At the latter (P6), his numbers are a price of 0.95, a result of 2.07, and a difference of +1.12.
So the market thought that Seattle Slew was a better influence at P5 in the fourth generation (price of 1.09) than at P6 in the fourth generation (price of 0.95). The results were quite the opposite. The two positions are right next to each other in the fourth generation. One (sire of females) had excellent results from below-average prices. The other (sire of males) had poor results from above-average prices.
The main point here is that attempting to define a sire’s “influence” (positive or negative) is a lot trickier than just pinning a convenient label on him. That “influence” can vary sharply from generation to generation and even from position to position within the same generation.