The Moral of This Story????

Frosted is by Tapit out of G2 winner Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister. The second dam is multiple G2 winner Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags, by Seattle Slew. That places Seattle Slew at P7 in Frosted’s fourth generation.

Listed below are the prices for the nine sires who showed up most often at P7 in the fourth generation among sales foals of 2008-2111.

Sire                                Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

Northern Dancer          3,991         $56,597             173.04                   1.12

Mr. Prospector             3,196         $48,314             160.23                   1.04

Raise a Native               1,635        $68,372              187.78                   1.22

Bold Ruler                      1,527        $46,722              151.83                   0.99

Nijinsky II                      1,093       $49,353              163.12                   1.06

In Reality                        1,078       $51,867              164.79                    1.07

Seattle Slew                        965      $50,144              162.13                   1.05

Damascus                            930      $48,703             158.00                   1.03

Hail to Reason                    820       $43,403             150.44                   0.98

Totals                               15,235      $52,678             165.69                   1.08

I stopped with Hail to Reason because the next three sires (Danzig, Vice Regent, and Alydar) were all below 600 foals.

The overall average for all 45,562 foals was $46,418. All nine sires were above that benchmark except Hail to Reason ($43,403). Raise a Native was by far the highest at $68,372.

The overall maverage for all 45,562 foals was 154.0. Seven of the nine sires were above that benchmark. Bold Ruler (151.83) and Hail to Reason (150.44) were below it. The Price Indexes by definition followed suit, with Raise a Native by far the highest at 1.22.

Listed below are the racetrack results for these nine sires. APPPSW stands for average Performance Points per stakes winner, the benchmark now being 694.

Sire                                Foals          Stakes Winners     %      APPPSW          PPI (Result)

Northern Dancer          3,991                   160              4.01        758                     1.29

Mr. Prospector             3,196                    135              4.22        676                     1.21

Raise a Native               1,635                     65               3.98        695                     1.17

Bold Ruler                      1,527                     26               1.70        586                     0.42

Nijinsky II                      1,093                    38                3.48       709                     1.04

In Reality                        1,078                    34                3.15       531                      0.76

Seattle Slew                       965                    38                3.94       844                      1.41

Damascus                           930                    23                2.47       581                      0.61

Hail to Reason                   820                    24                2.93      1,123                     1.39

Totals                              15,235                  543              3.56         719                     1.08

Bold Ruler was by far the worst at 0.42, followed by Damascus (0.61) and In Reality (0.76). Seattle Slew was the best at 1.41, followed by Hail to Reason at 1.39.

That 1.39 for Hail to Reason should be taken with a grain of salt. Among his stakes winners was Beholder (second dam by Stop the Music, with 9,757 Performance Points). Without Beholder Hail to Reason has a PPI of 0.89, more in line with his Price Index of 0.98.

The best stakes winner for Seattle Slew was Drosselmeyer (second dam by Slew o’ Gold, with 4,628 Performance Points). Without Drosselmeyer Seattle Slew’s PPI slips to 1.20, still well above his Price Index of 1.05.

The chart below shows the relationship between prices and results for these nine sires.

Sire                                Foals          Price Index          PPI (Result)          Difference

Northern Dancer          3,991              1.12                       1.29                        +0.17

Mr. Prospector             3,196              1.04                       1.21                        +0.17

Raise a Native               1,635              1.22                       1.17                       –0.05

Bold Ruler                      1,527              0.99                      0.42                       –0.57

Nijinsky II                      1,093             1.06                      1.04                       –0.02

In Reality                        1,078             1.07                      0.76                       –0.31

Seattle Slew                        965            1.05                      1.41                        +0.36

Damascus                            930           1.03                       0.61                       –0.42

Hail to Reason                    820           0.98                       1.39                         +0.41

Totals                               15,235         1.08                        1.08                          0.00

Four of the nine were positive, led by Hail to Reason (+0.41) and Seattle Slew (+0.36). Five of the nine were negative, the worst being Bold Ruler (–0.57), Damascus (–0.42), and In Reality (–0.31).

The nine sires collectively accounted for just over a third of the entire population (15,235 of 45,562 foals). Those 15,235 foals had a Price Index of 1.08 and a PPI of 1.08. Collectively you got exactly what you paid for with these nine sires at P7 in the fourth generation.

Two of the nine sires were foaled in the 1970s (Mr. Prospector in 1970 and Seattle Slew in 1974). Two of the nine were foaled in the 1950s (Bold Ruler in 1954 and Hail to Reason in 1958). The other five were all foaled in the 1960s.

I decided to break down these numbers by the decades in which the sires were foaled. Listed below are the prices for the 1970s (Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew), the 1950s (Bold Ruler and Hail to Reason), and the 1960s (the other five).

Sires’ YOB                        Foals          Average          Maverage          Price Index

1970s                                4,161           $48,738             160.67                   1.04

1960s                                8,727           $56,471              171.94                   1.12

1950s                                2,347           $45,562             151.34                   0.98

The five sires foaled in the 1960s had the highest average ($56,471), maverage (171.94), and Price Index (1.12). Bold Ruler and Hail to Reason were lowest at $45,562, 151.34, and 0.98, respectively. Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew were in between at $48,738, 160.67, and 1.04, respectively.

Listed below are the racetrack results for these same three categories.

Sires’ YOB                        Foals          Stakes Winners     %      APPPSW          PPI (Result)

1970s                                4,161                    173              4.16          713                   1.25

1960s                                8,727                    320              3.67         703                   1.09

1950s                               2,347                      50               2.13         844                    0.76

The 1970s were by far the best at 1.25, the 1950s were by far the worst at 0.76, and the 1960s were in between at 1.09.

Listed below are the relationship between prices and results for the three categories.

Sires’ YOB                        Foals               Price Index           PPI (Result)          Difference

1970s                                4,161                     1.04                       1.25                       +0.21

1960s                                8,727                     1.12                       1.09                      –0.03

1950s                               2,347                      0.98                      0.76                      –0.22

The 1970s were by far the best at +0.21, the 1950s were by far the worst at –0.22, and the 1960s were in between and slightly negative (–0.03).

The moral of this story???? Do I have to draw you a picture???? Chronology matters in pedigrees.

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2 Responses to The Moral of This Story????

  1. john Tierney says:

    Any theories as to why chronology matters so much..Does the “genetic prowess” of stallions decline with age?…or sucessive generations coming from elderly animals leads to some sort of epi-genetic decline.–In greyhounds (where frozen semen is allowed)-pups by the superstar sires of 30 years ago are generally terrible(in comparison to their long deceased half siblings).
    thanks for reading(love your blog)

    • ddink55 says:

      Thanks for reading. Most evidence is pretty conclusive that age is a significant factor in broodmares. People can wrap their heads around the reasons why this is so (more related to the number of pregnancies and birth rank than actual age).

      Sires???? Not much evidence exists one way or another. Perhaps I need to do some more delving in this area. At this point I have no theories as to WHY though. I have some other posts planned related to chronology.

      Boojum

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